This is a most excellent place for technology news and articles.
If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.
AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.
It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are "building" and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.
Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst.
Please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft.
Itll be ~~nvidia and~~ openai primarily, id have to imagine
It wont be Nvidia unless they play things incredibly badly, they're the only ones making actual profit by selling shovels in the goldrush.
Yeah, but dont they also have the largest promisory debt? Havent they loaned the most most money that they dont actually have?
From a quick look they have ~40B USD in liabilities and make ~115B USD gross profit. Being able to pay off the entirety of their debt with 4 months of profit seems pretty healthy to me.
Microsoft already had a proven business model and established products and services before the AI boom. If a company goes under it would almost certainly be one focused almost entirely on AI such as Palantir.
Agreed. Probably where it should have stayed in the first place. Not that its not interesting, just that the scope of AI has widened beyond what it should have.
Just a reminder that the term "AI" stands for a category of systems that contains a lot more than just LLMs.
Sir, this is the stock market.
People order with their feelings, not facts.
Main reason it can flourish as assistant in the first place is that Google search engine became shit
Dotcom groundhog day for the tech sector.
As an aside, you can tell how successful the rebranding of twitter as “x” has been, since even now more than 2 years after the rebranding news articles still have to add “formerly known as twitter” every time they mention it.
That dumbass throwing away the Twitter brand for a damn letter should be proof enough to anyone that he's a moron
It blew my mind when he announced it. Brand recognition is one of the most important things companies hope for, and Twitter was in it's own, very select brand recognition club at the top. Tweeting became part of everyday vernacular, in the same way that googling something became synonomous with searching online. It's a company's wet dream. No one says "gramming", "threading", "facebooking", etc. Maybe Snapchat has snapping, I'm out of the loop but even I've used tweeting/ed in every day conversations.
That recognition is the stupidest thing to just throw away, especially to replace it with something that can't replace it from a language perspective. Xing makes no sense in context.
But I also still say Facebook and Google instead of Meta and alphabet
Those are changes in parent company names though while the services Facebook and Google still exist. The rebrand of Twitter to X continuing to not stick for people is a much bigger failure on their part than Meta and Alphabet not entering the general zeitgeist.
Even Grok AI follows up with that reminder when it mentions X.
Some guy spending a billion dollars on pretty much nothing makes me deeply annoyed. Tax billionaires.
He famously isn't rich. He manages the money of the rich, he himself is only well off. This isn't his money he's investing, it's the money of the people he works for. So there's obviously some market feeling that this is a good bet.
You must be annoyed A LOT these days. It seems that spending a lot of money on nothing is the latest trend for these people.
But spending it on their own terms. They would spend $100,000 on lawyers and lobbying to avoid paying $20,000 of new taxes.
Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse. His fund rose a whopping 489 percent when the market did subsequently fall apart in 2008.
We may have to wait for another three years.
I looked into the article to find out how long a timeframe he is betting. Unfortunately, it does not say.
You'd think the timing should reflect the typical terms of loans and loan volumes - so that sounds plausible. When the default rate of those loans begins to creep up and become notable to investors, then people will get edgy.
I just hope it comes before our much loved and overpaid layers of incompetent management have destroyed all their manual production processes and replaced them with snake oil. If not a general economic downturn might start well before the ai bubble bursts.
Its not a question of "if" but "when."
and whether he has enough liquidity to maintain his margin during absolutely insane market distortions by hedge funds, big banks, and the government.
And when it pops it will be a big bang in the entire global economy from what i heared and read.
I mean, the housing bubble burst and the government pulled 7 trillion out of its arse and handed it back to bankers, doubling the cost of current living from the knock-on inflation. Life went on, and not a single banker (except maybe some lackey in Iceland) was punished. The Rich got exceedingly wealthy after the crisis.
This time: the government will pull 50 trillion from its arse and hand it back to investors. Life will go on, no one will be punished, the cost of living will be a few times higher than what it is now, and the rich will get richer.
My interpretation: the big investors fully expect the bubble to burst and hope to win from the fallout/bailout. It's win-win for them.
The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won't burst? Keeping it going will require in ever-increasing amounts of money to paper over the gaping chasms that keep cropping up, and eventually the amount of money necessary to keep it going will cease to be feasible. Then, after taking gullible investor for all of they've got, the whole thing will fall over in the world's most well deserved and predictable market crash.
The subprime mortgage collapse was inevitable only in hindsight, you had to have a good understanding of the market to see it in advance. To see the level of corruption and false promises that have to be made in order to make the mortgage bubble possible. But everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open, I'm not talking about the "how many Rs are in strawberry" questions either, I can sort of see why that's not really a fair question. I'm talking about the fact that every single business that has ever tried to replace its employees with AI, has always failed, and failed almost immediately. Even Amazon couldn't make it work.
I think the idea is that, whilst shorting, you get squeezed. The question is not 'if' but 'when' and if it takes too long and you're $1B deep you can lose your shirt
everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open
To me it is four things in particular:
In prior generations, any industry with such performance would be laughed clear out of the boardroom.
But because capitalism is desperately seeking a solution to what they perceive as a problem - how to obtain labour without having to pay said labour - AI is being adopted hand-over-fist.
After all, the underlying purpose of AI is to allow wealth to access skill while removing from the skilled the ability to access wealth.
Good
Nvidia down ~8% this week, Palantir down ~10%
Maybe the needle really is shifting.
Maybe, but he's also been super wrong a bunch of times on his skitzo twitter account so grains of salt and all that. Not saying the guy isn't smart, clearly called one of the biggest systemic crisis of our times, but he struck gold once and struck out a bunch more often.
I may be wrong but i thought this guy was not at all a respected investor and only made 1 good trade. So his opinion is kinda worthless.
TBF, an investor could make a thousand good investments and I'd still regard their opinion as worthless (here's lookin' at you, Buffet.) Being "good" at figuring out which stocks and companies you can exploit the most from the actually productive economy doesn't make you smart or in anyway good.
I assume they meant opinions when it comes to investing not opinions in general.
The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with.
Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars
Them he's betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we're okay with that shit.
All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell
Them he's betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we're okay with that shit.
Why should someone not be able to short some stock? The AI bubble will burst anyway.
Also, he doesn't have one billion dollars, he manages an investment fund that people collectively put a billion dollars (or more) there.
My plan is to stay invested until dividends hit in December, and then I'm going to evaluate moving my investments into a money market or bonds. Amazon's numbers show that consumers are still buying, and my assumption is that consumer spending will hold off the pop for now.
I 100% expect a massive crash, and when it's just seven companies propping up an entire economy, the pop is going to be very bad. I'd rather lose a little value in the short term than have my portfolio drop to a calamitous degree and have to wait 5-10 years for it to recover.
*not a FA, just my personal plan
I stopped putting money into us equities and started to put them in purely international index funds. I havent sold anything though.
Market is so fake and manipulated that I no longer have any interest in investing in it. Like always for decades now it is a transfer to the wealthy system.
his fund, Scion Asset Management, bought $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir (...) Palantir’s market cap is also up over 150 percent year-to-date. Its current valuation is upwards of 200 times its forward earnings, spreading fears that it may be grossly overvalued.
He knows which one is more likely to get really fucked in this bubble and it's not the shovel seller
Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse.
Can we assume his puts aren't for 2026, but at least 2028 or later?
As CNN points out, Burry’s track record isn’t perfect. For instance, he called in January 2023 to “sell” in a now infamous tweet
Something something irrational solvent something
Palantir CEO Alex Karp: "The two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money,"
One of the companies is making all the money and it's not Palantir.
I think it's a bubble but I'm also suspicious we're near peak investment and think it could sustain for a while yet. I wonder what sort of range he's projecting for the peak and timeframe
