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At least some penguin species need sea ice to breed, and Antarctic sea ice extent has dropped off a cliff in the last decade (a starting in 2016) (source: went to a plenary about sea ice at the AMOS conference in Aus at the end of June)
I think what ever happens in Antarctica, it's likely to be complex...
the article I was referring to is in the latest science news
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/penguin-poop-climate-change-antarctica