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i was reading about how the penguins create a bunch of weather in Antarctica with their fields of poop. It causes lots of snow storms because the ammonia and other components of the their waste, seed the moisture in the air to create weather patterns.
so they might be keeping chunks of Antarctica snow covered and they would have to be displaced before any real changes would happen. the ice melt wouldn't stop them from moving further inland
At least some penguin species need sea ice to breed, and Antarctic sea ice extent has dropped off a cliff in the last decade (a starting in 2016) (source: went to a plenary about sea ice at the AMOS conference in Aus at the end of June)
I think what ever happens in Antarctica, it's likely to be complex...
the article I was referring to is in the latest science news
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/penguin-poop-climate-change-antarctica