sp3ctr4l

I will be shocked if the Dem establishment doesn't run Newsom and do their damndest to ratfuck AOC like they did with Bernie.

Sure, there's a lot of time between now and a theoretical 2028 presidential cycle...

But I have learned to set expectations pessimistically and be surprised in the optimism direction, not the other way around.

As someone with an actual Econ degree:

... Yeah, a whole lot of 'technical signals' aka, chart reading that a lot of 'retail' (ie, amateur) day traders use... is basically astrology.

Its not quite as absolutely nonsensical as astrology, which is just absolutely 100% bullshit... like, a 50 MA crossing a 200 MA downward... definitely does indicate that stock is not having a great time right now... but as far as the "power" of such a signal to reliably indicate future trends?

No, basically no. There are some technical indicators that have a slightly higher correlation coefficient of being a reliable leading indicator, but the correlations are not really that strong... there are just way too many other confounding variables.

...

Even the quants who work for hedge funds... who use some of the most advanced and complex mathematical models in the world to try to untangle all of those confounding effects....

...well, they are on average, over a decently long timescale, no better, or even slightly worse than random chance at picking stocks, bonds, a portfolio that will grow more than just the average.

Part of this is because... if a technical trading strategy that actually works to generate outsized gains... is actually figured out by one of the big boy quants... the other big boy quants will notice this and reverse engineer it from analyzing what their rival is doing.

Then, once all the big boys are using the same strategy... well now it doesn't return outsized gains anymore.

... Which is why all your 401ks are basically index funds for their stock component, which is just a weighted average basket of whichever particular market, usually the DJIA or SP500 as the Nasdaq is historically a bit more volatile.

...

Now, all that being said... one arguably 'technical indicator' that always has been correct in the last 100 years... is when the bond yield curve inverts... the economy and stock market generally suffer a downturn roughly proportional to the time and magnitude of the bond yield curve inversion... soon after or right as the bond yield curve uninverts.

Except for right now, the last few years.

We have now, in the last 4 or 5 years, had 3 periods of yield curve inversion, 2 uninversions... and the broader economy has technically not yet entered into a recession, a period of negative GDP growth.

But it looks like we are heading now for basically something akin to the Great Depression, as the latest inversion is pretty widely being interpreted as 'investors no longer see the US Bonds as the defacto save haven, the USD as the defacto world currency'... which means the dollar will devalue as demand for it goes down... which means even if the tariffs went away and never came back, all our imports would be more expensive... and our exports won't be worth as much... and our external debt to other countries will become even more onerous...

And we are kind of massively reliant on importing material things and exporting services or non physical 'products'.

(Great work Mr. Trump -.-)

So... yeah you can't really make a day trading strategy out of that.

...

Beyond all that, its probably also worth mentioning that GDP per capita is not a reliable measure of actual wellbeing of the population of a country when it has enormous wealth disparity.

Ah, I was using the uh... food industry sense of the term (which is admittedly a fuzzy definition), not the chemistry definition.

Yay for domain dependent meanings!

A foot like this is a blend of decorative and functional, imo.

You end up with more surface area than if you had just gone with a straight column, and that helps with stability, slightly lessens the pressure.

Many modern tables or desks have... much less ornate footpad type structures, if the thing itself is quite heavy, or intended to hold a decent amount of weight.

Of course... I have no way of knowing if this old... desk? table? whatever it is, was intentionally designed with that in mind, but the function is still there, at least to some degree.

Couldn't you... use basically moonshine?

Like, set up a distillery, get your grain mash and sugar... now you have very high proof alcohol.

Now, you could just strap basically a pilot light to ... a more seriously designed super soaker... and you'd have to add some kind of ... jellying, gelling? agent to the moonshine to get it to act more like a flame thrower than a squirt gun...

This would not be a 100% organicly sourced entire flamethrower, but you could at least make the fuel mostly, if not fully, from organic, non petroleum products.

Not only are they water soluble and easily washed out... the vast majority of them are also non toxic.

If you get paint on your mask, and it splatters through to your mouth... non toxic. Tastes terrible, but its not gonna harm you via ingestion. Much of the 'paint' is ... basically just food dye.

...

... Also... a whole lot of police... just use paint markers (they are technically, legally classed as 'markers' because they aren't firearms thus are not 'guns')... they use markers with pepper balls.

They just shoot miniature tear gas / skin irritant /eye irritant 'paintballs' as a less lethal weapon.

You can put a whole lot of different liquids inside what is basically a semi rigid gel/plastic capsule.

...

The old devious trick I remember was people would freeze their paintballs the night before a match.

Nowadays, I'm fairly sure if you are caught doing that, you don't just get banned from that field/course... you probably get prosecuted.

Digital Noodle Switchboard

Whelp, thats a whoosh moment for me than lol.

But it does seem like some other people appreciated the info :P

To clarify:

Though the group currently calling itself Anonymous that just published all this ... derives the aesthetics and what not from stuff that arose on 4chan in the mid/late 00s...

They almost certainly have nothing to do with 4chan going down.

4chan was taken down by a group of people that used to post on a 4chan subboard, which was removed... and then they started their own community 'Soyjack Party'.

Which, ironically, is a very similar story as to why 4chan even exists: m00t used to post hentai and loli on SomethingAwful, and then that subboard got shut down, m00t and other frequent posters there got banned, and then they made 4chan.

Like... I stopped using 4chan almost two decades ago now, when m00t made a big announcement post, which later disappeared, stating that as a result of increased media scrutiny and a number of high profile crimes that were connected back to 4chan posts... well m00t said that he was cooperating with the authorities.

I can't prove this, because ... two decades ago, and the announcement was only up for ... less than 24hrs... but yeah, as the SoyJack Party hack of 4chan has confirmed, it was obvious that 4chan was/is a shitshow joke of an operation held together by ducttape and fishing lines.

For fucks sake, their versions of PHP and MySQL were like 12 years out of date and had numerous, extensively well documented security flaws.

Yes but you also just said 'Not true' when I said 'migating an account to another PDS would complicated.'

I do grant that I ... could be interpereted to have overstated the ability of an ActPub user to migrate instsnces... though I did just say 'it would be complicated'.

It is arguably complicated, so complicated it is impossible.

And I did try to make it clear that getting into that level of features/capabilities of ActPub, I was not sure, and that perhaps a lemmy mod or admin could clarify.

I am not saying you said this, but the whole problem here is that a lot of BlueSky users and fans consistently keep acting like BlueSky has all these different kinds of capabilities and features now, working currently...

... when at best, they are planned future features, and at worst, they are an intentionally misleading early access video game style roadmap, with a bunch of super enthusiastic but low technical knowledge early adopters who basically are just enthralled by buzzwords and hope... and those fanboys/girls will just be strung along by promises the devs don't actually plan on ever implementing, because they don't actually have much incentive to... and then years later the early users will either realize they've been duped, or become delusional, hardcore uberfans, bereft of logic and perspective.

I don't even know if such a community exists, or what instance(s) it would be on if it/they do exist... but uh... if one does somewhere, I guess you could submit it?

I am assuming it would follow the basic rule of ... you can't submit your own posts/comments lol.

It is very, very clear, reading your other comments that you are incapable of grasping the concept of a decentralized or distributed network paradigm.

Maybe go look at how torrents work, how I2P works, how a MeshNet works.

Other metaphors would be a guerilla warfare network of cells vs a top down conventional hierarchy where individual units are allowed a degree of autonomy within certain bounds.

The AT Protocol system is not capable of operating in a non centralized manner.

Your only option is to point your PDS at either the official network of Relays... or set up your own system of Relays, and point your PDS at that.

Likewise for an AppView, you can either point yours to sync with the official network of Relays... or another network of Relays.

There is no meshing, where nodes on the mesh control what other nodes they interface with.... there is only branching or forking, setting up an entirely parellel structure, that is not capable of synchronizing with the original.

Beyond that, you still have not addressed that you said a blatantly self contradicting statement; that people self host relays, but also they don't self host relays because that is costly and the self hosted relay code available to the public is experimental and mainly used for reasons tangential to the core function of a production ready relay.

And for the I think third time I have asked this, not of you personally, but in this thread:

Who is hosting a Relay other than BlueSky?

Can you provide evidence any independent person has figured out how to do this and is actually doing it?

I would gladly accept new information and adjust my own understanding accordingly, but all I have seen in this thread so far is multiple people claiming that there are self hosted Relays, and then either providing no evidencd, or showing that they don't understand the subject and post a link to a guide to, or example of, somehow setting up an AppView or PDS.