I will be shocked if the Dem establishment doesn't run Newsom and do their damndest to ratfuck AOC like they did with Bernie.
Sure, there's a lot of time between now and a theoretical 2028 presidential cycle...
But I have learned to set expectations pessimistically and be surprised in the optimism direction, not the other way around.
As someone with an actual Econ degree:
... Yeah, a whole lot of 'technical signals' aka, chart reading that a lot of 'retail' (ie, amateur) day traders use... is basically astrology.
Its not quite as absolutely nonsensical as astrology, which is just absolutely 100% bullshit... like, a 50 MA crossing a 200 MA downward... definitely does indicate that stock is not having a great time right now... but as far as the "power" of such a signal to reliably indicate future trends?
No, basically no. There are some technical indicators that have a slightly higher correlation coefficient of being a reliable leading indicator, but the correlations are not really that strong... there are just way too many other confounding variables.
...
Even the quants who work for hedge funds... who use some of the most advanced and complex mathematical models in the world to try to untangle all of those confounding effects....
...well, they are on average, over a decently long timescale, no better, or even slightly worse than random chance at picking stocks, bonds, a portfolio that will grow more than just the average.
Part of this is because... if a technical trading strategy that actually works to generate outsized gains... is actually figured out by one of the big boy quants... the other big boy quants will notice this and reverse engineer it from analyzing what their rival is doing.
Then, once all the big boys are using the same strategy... well now it doesn't return outsized gains anymore.
... Which is why all your 401ks are basically index funds for their stock component, which is just a weighted average basket of whichever particular market, usually the DJIA or SP500 as the Nasdaq is historically a bit more volatile.
...
Now, all that being said... one arguably 'technical indicator' that always has been correct in the last 100 years... is when the bond yield curve inverts... the economy and stock market generally suffer a downturn roughly proportional to the time and magnitude of the bond yield curve inversion... soon after or right as the bond yield curve uninverts.
Except for right now, the last few years.
We have now, in the last 4 or 5 years, had 3 periods of yield curve inversion, 2 uninversions... and the broader economy has technically not yet entered into a recession, a period of negative GDP growth.
But it looks like we are heading now for basically something akin to the Great Depression, as the latest inversion is pretty widely being interpreted as 'investors no longer see the US Bonds as the defacto save haven, the USD as the defacto world currency'... which means the dollar will devalue as demand for it goes down... which means even if the tariffs went away and never came back, all our imports would be more expensive... and our exports won't be worth as much... and our external debt to other countries will become even more onerous...
And we are kind of massively reliant on importing material things and exporting services or non physical 'products'.
(Great work Mr. Trump -.-)
So... yeah you can't really make a day trading strategy out of that.
...
Beyond all that, its probably also worth mentioning that GDP per capita is not a reliable measure of actual wellbeing of the population of a country when it has enormous wealth disparity.
Ah, I was using the uh... food industry sense of the term (which is admittedly a fuzzy definition), not the chemistry definition.
Yay for domain dependent meanings!
A foot like this is a blend of decorative and functional, imo.
You end up with more surface area than if you had just gone with a straight column, and that helps with stability, slightly lessens the pressure.
Many modern tables or desks have... much less ornate footpad type structures, if the thing itself is quite heavy, or intended to hold a decent amount of weight.
Of course... I have no way of knowing if this old... desk? table? whatever it is, was intentionally designed with that in mind, but the function is still there, at least to some degree.
Couldn't you... use basically moonshine?
Like, set up a distillery, get your grain mash and sugar... now you have very high proof alcohol.
Now, you could just strap basically a pilot light to ... a more seriously designed super soaker... and you'd have to add some kind of ... jellying, gelling? agent to the moonshine to get it to act more like a flame thrower than a squirt gun...
This would not be a 100% organicly sourced entire flamethrower, but you could at least make the fuel mostly, if not fully, from organic, non petroleum products.
Not only are they water soluble and easily washed out... the vast majority of them are also non toxic.
If you get paint on your mask, and it splatters through to your mouth... non toxic. Tastes terrible, but its not gonna harm you via ingestion. Much of the 'paint' is ... basically just food dye.
...
... Also... a whole lot of police... just use paint markers (they are technically, legally classed as 'markers' because they aren't firearms thus are not 'guns')... they use markers with pepper balls.
They just shoot miniature tear gas / skin irritant /eye irritant 'paintballs' as a less lethal weapon.
You can put a whole lot of different liquids inside what is basically a semi rigid gel/plastic capsule.
...
The old devious trick I remember was people would freeze their paintballs the night before a match.
Nowadays, I'm fairly sure if you are caught doing that, you don't just get banned from that field/course... you probably get prosecuted.
Digital Noodle Switchboard
Whelp, thats a whoosh moment for me than lol.
But it does seem like some other people appreciated the info :P
To clarify:
Though the group currently calling itself Anonymous that just published all this ... derives the aesthetics and what not from stuff that arose on 4chan in the mid/late 00s...
They almost certainly have nothing to do with 4chan going down.
4chan was taken down by a group of people that used to post on a 4chan subboard, which was removed... and then they started their own community 'Soyjack Party'.
Which, ironically, is a very similar story as to why 4chan even exists: m00t used to post hentai and loli on SomethingAwful, and then that subboard got shut down, m00t and other frequent posters there got banned, and then they made 4chan.
Like... I stopped using 4chan almost two decades ago now, when m00t made a big announcement post, which later disappeared, stating that as a result of increased media scrutiny and a number of high profile crimes that were connected back to 4chan posts... well m00t said that he was cooperating with the authorities.
I can't prove this, because ... two decades ago, and the announcement was only up for ... less than 24hrs... but yeah, as the SoyJack Party hack of 4chan has confirmed, it was obvious that 4chan was/is a shitshow joke of an operation held together by ducttape and fishing lines.
For fucks sake, their versions of PHP and MySQL were like 12 years out of date and had numerous, extensively well documented security flaws.
Yes but you also just said 'Not true' when I said 'migating an account to another PDS would complicated.'
I do grant that I ... could be interpereted to have overstated the ability of an ActPub user to migrate instsnces... though I did just say 'it would be complicated'.
It is arguably complicated, so complicated it is impossible.
And I did try to make it clear that getting into that level of features/capabilities of ActPub, I was not sure, and that perhaps a lemmy mod or admin could clarify.
I am not saying you said this, but the whole problem here is that a lot of BlueSky users and fans consistently keep acting like BlueSky has all these different kinds of capabilities and features now, working currently...
... when at best, they are planned future features, and at worst, they are an intentionally misleading early access video game style roadmap, with a bunch of super enthusiastic but low technical knowledge early adopters who basically are just enthralled by buzzwords and hope... and those fanboys/girls will just be strung along by promises the devs don't actually plan on ever implementing, because they don't actually have much incentive to... and then years later the early users will either realize they've been duped, or become delusional, hardcore uberfans, bereft of logic and perspective.
I don't even know if such a community exists, or what instance(s) it would be on if it/they do exist... but uh... if one does somewhere, I guess you could submit it?
I am assuming it would follow the basic rule of ... you can't submit your own posts/comments lol.
I can count to ten in English (native), Japanese (did Karate for about a decade) and Spanish (took classes in middle and high school).
I can ... read and listen to Spanish and maybe understand at about a 2nd or 3rd grade level... very much out of practice.
I would not say I can speak Japanese or understand it ... basically at all, unless the conversation entirely consists of either counting, or using nouns describing Karate forms, lol.
The first time I dated ... a combination weeabo and owns her own horses, horse girl, who was actually taking Japanese in college to major in it...
She asked me a very grammatically basic question in Japanese, a yes no question...
And I responded 'Osu!'... and then quickly learned that that is not a standard Japanese word for 'yes', that would be 'Hai', and that Osu ... basically only contextually makes sense in the context of a dojo or some other sports/military type setting.
Apparently in proper/normal? Japanese it is a casual greeting amongst martial arts practitioners... but I was literally drilled to say it as an enthusiastic, affirmative response to any command.
EDIT: Also, this will sound insane, but I swear to god this actually happened: Many years after the aforementioned clarification from my at the time gf... I later encountered a man who told me he was ... a yakuza, specifically a yakushi... we chatted for hours, he showed me how one of his fingers had been severely busted at the knuckle.
He explained to me that... there had been a fuckup on his part, but his... direct superior decided to basically accept some of the blame for the fuckup of this guy I met, and struck him with the blunt side of the blade instead of the sharp side... and then exiled him.
Which was why he was in America, and could no longer safely return to Japan.
Anyway, he explained to me that the reason why... most Japanese say 'yon' instead of 'shi' to mean '4' ... is because 'shi' is also the character/sound that... basically means 'death'.
Which then circled around to why he referred to himself as a 'yakushi'.
As he explained it to me, it meant that he had both dealt, and been sparred from death.
... I have no idea if what this guy was saying is actually true, if he actually was a yakuza... but he did tell me these things and seemed very serious about them.