astronaut_sloth

Just from a quick look at https://fediverse.observer/, it looks like the Fediverse is mostly steady at 1-1.25 million monthly users (give or take) over the past two years with a slight decreasing trend. I think there are some reasons for this that are not entirely in our control.

There seems to be a global sentiment of disconnecting from social media and the internet in general. So, I wouldn't be surprised if ever platform is seeing a decaying user base. Anecdotally, among the people I see in real life, there is a general sense of exhaustion with online spaces. Whether it's from corporate-own, enshittified platforms to even places on the Fediverse, the people with whom I interact tend to find the entire thing hollow. They've trimmed down to one or two platforms (if that). In fact, I've even started to get that way. In the past, if someone were wrong and arguing against a point I made, I'd engage, especially if it's in something that I have expertise. Now, why bother? There's no use arguing; people have little interest in admitting fault or engaging in good faith (again anecdotally). That said, I'll concede that the Fediverse is a bit better on that front, but not by much.

Then there's the alternative nature of the Fediverse. It's been rehashed over and over about how "difficult" it is to get on and use. It's not actually that hard, but the barrier to entry is an extra step. That small extra step frightens people away from even joining. The only time that barrier gets broken is when a "legacy" social media platform does something anti-user. Then there is a refugee wave that comes in and goes out leading to a modest durable increase in users. Recently, there just hasn't been a major controversy on a major platform that leads people here.

Now, my final thought on this is to ask: Is a small and steady-ish population (despite modest decay) actually bad? In my view, I don't think it is. Being smaller and with a smallish barrier to entry means that we exclude a sizable number of the low-effort population. So, there's less (no zero) slop here. Plus, discussions, when had in good faith, can be much deeper and less filled with stupid low-effort jokes. Overall, I'm not too concerned with the number of people on the Fediverse. Growth isn't necessarily the best thing. Even so, with the way most mainstream platforms are going, it's inevitable that they will do something stupid that drives more people to the Fediverse at least for a time.

TL;DR: The monthly population is mostly steady with a modest decay. Most social media is likely seeing similar trends. I don't think the smaller userbase is that bad of a thing.

Somewhat related but I always half-joked that Clarence Thomas' anti-civil rights rulings were a long con to outlaw interracial marriage so he could divorce Ginny.

I already know the vote will fail, and even if it doesn't the Senate won't convict. But, Jesus, the Democrats need to do something. Even a symbolic gesture is welcome, and it's better if it can gum up the works and make Trump's agenda come to a screeching halt.

this “cameras for everything!” idiocy.

That's why I'm so impressed with how well it's actually working. When they get off that really weird self-imposed restriction, it could be an interesting technology.

Not great performance at all.

That's better than I was expecting to be perfectly honest.

I'm pretty impressed with the technology, but clearly it's not ready for field use.

You do get promotions in the Army reserve.

Correct.

They are taking jobs that could have been a promotion for an experienced reservist.

Probably not. This little think tank was just stood up. Title 10 gives the maximum numbers of officers per service per grade ( https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/523), and I wholly doubt that five new O-5s make an actual difference to getting to that cap. I also doubt we are anywhere near the maximum numbers of authorized officers. There is a retention crisis after all.

Beyond that, they would have to compete within their own competitive categories, so whatever category these people are in is the only one (minorly) affected. In fact, what is most likely is that the Secretary of the Army authorized to add five to the quota for that competitive category to mean that no one gets negatively affected. When officers are directly appointed to senior grades (which does happen), it's not a big deal.

Look, I agree that this is bad, but it's not malicious...just dumb and a waste of time and money while cheapening the service career officers have. In the end, this is just a publicity stunt and an eval bullet for some General somewhere. There's plenty more to be outraged about from this administration than direct commissioning five idiot executives who will likely not do anything of substance.

LTC’s either have command or staff positions and often approve things like operations orders and contracts.

They are not going to have command. The article itself says they're going to some "Innovation Corps," which just sounds like some boondoggle assignment on a staff. They will have no actual Army job. They're just going to be pushing contracts to their companies. That's bad, but it already happens, so it comes out as just nothing. They are almost certainly not going to be in anyone's chain of command.

Plus, I'd bet they'll probably be at the Pentagon. An O-5 there has as much authority as an O-1 in the "real" military.

There’s virtually zero chance they’ve been put there for no reason

Probably just some flag officer's good idea fairy or a way for a flag to secure a job after retirement. Again, not good, but very par for the course for DoD stupidity and/or corruption.

There are plenty of actual things to get outraged over. Having some tech bros play Army as O-5s is not that important. The DoD already gets bent over a barrel by Palantir and other companies to use their software; it's wasteful and supports terrible companies. That's what to get outraged over, not some idiots being appointed as O-5s.

Yep, but those who resign for moral reasons will be more likely to take actual actions to protest/stop what's happening. The military will have a hard time recruiting competent people in that environment, though, and the people taking the vacancies will likely have diminishing competence as time goes on.

To put it in perspective, if more officers retire at 20, they'll generally be O-5s (Lieutenant Colonels or Commanders), and so the next year's promotion cycle will need to promote more O-4s to cover the vacancies. This will then trickle down, and suddenly, you have officers who have been O-3s for just a couple of years being promoted to O-4 rather than waiting longer and gaining experience.

In that scenario, there will be less efficiency in planning and execution and far more incompetence, and if being used against civilians, more brutality. But incompetence is easier to defeat in the long run. Seeing the incompetence and brutality will deprive the military of the smartest recruits who staff the important IT, intelligence, cyber, etc. communities. So, while they may get true believers, a lower proportion will be competent.

No matter how it shakes out, it will get very bad.

Not wrong. At "best," we'll see a fracturing of the military...which could be much more trouble than it's worth. I'd expect a small wave of resignations/desertions (since resignation for an officer takes a long time). The remainder of good people will actively try to avoid and sea-lawyer their way out of doing any damage to civilians without violating orders. There will be a good chunk who will happily fire on US civilians, though.

It’s important to spread the message far and wide that they are not alone

This right here. Disobeying orders is hard, and upholding one's oath when being told from all sides is hard, especially when friends and colleagues are going along with it. You don't want to be the squeaky wheel who makes trouble for everyone. It can become easy to think that you're alone if surrounded by people "just following orders." It's made harder still when considering that a single morally courageous action can throw away a career and potentially land you in the brig.

Plus, actual veterans and service members think it's stupid. "Thank you for your service" is a punch line.