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The sun is 8 light-minutes away from the Earth - meaning if it were to disappear the sun would still shine in the sky for 8 minutes after it had vanished.
It takes 30 days for Chinese cargo ships to reach the U.S. from China.
'Liberation day' was 24 days ago.
That and there are second-order effects. If your business ordered a bunch of shit prior to all of this, and it's now coming into port you may say "fuck it, send it back" or you may decide to accept it, eat the tariff, and preemptively increase your pricing on your future finished landed goods because you are now having to factor in pricing instability of the input components/materials.
Likewise, during the several months period of fluctuation, many businesses likely made a reasoned decision to stop ordering for the future because they don't know if the market will tolerate them having to increase their prices by that much and they can't afford to sit on inventory they will never sell. So even if the government declares "ha just kidding" and completely abandons tariffs today, there could be a period of 2-5 months where many products aren't available because industries paused proactive ordering based on projected demand.
Another second or third order effect, depending on exactly how you class it:
Lots of smaller, more specific product segment oriented businesses?
Well, the smart ones ordered a bunch of supply at the end of last year or beginning of this year.
Which means their smaller ware and storehouses are fuller than normal.
Which means they... assumed demand would more or less remain steady.
Which means they took a big expense some months ago, maybe covered it with a loan.
Which means the Q4 24 and Q1 25 quarters are actually pulling forward from the rest of the year, which means we will actually GDP fall from... the baseline prior to that, not after that.
... And ~~if~~ when the economy generally tanks, and demand falls through the floor...
Well, some of them will survive.
But many won't.
Even though they did the arguably smarter thing, they'll still have to cut hours, do lay offs, even though the bosses told their workers that they didn't get a Xmas bonus... so that they wouldn't have to lay them off or cut their hours.
...
Beyond that, remember when the Ever Given got stuck in the Suez?
And... if you knew anyone in logistics... shit was back ordered and fucked up and people were paying premiuma for priority shipping that was still late, and dock processing times and land tranait schedules were fucked because everyone kept changing plans last minute?
Oh just multiply that level of chaos by 100 or 1000 or so.
Nbd rofl.
...
... As someone with a basic Econ degree, I always find it hilarious how often the highly praised and glorified 'small business owner'... is actually pretty much ignorant of most basic economics.
What is it, 95% or 99% of small businesses fail within the first year? Just like how 99% of Youtubers or Tiktokers or OnlyFans people make essentially no money?
Nobody bothers to look into any of that though, oh well.
At least succesful Youtubers / streamers are generally aware of the fact they've won the lottery.
Small business owners on the other hand are usually the most self righteous ass hats I ever meet: We're a ~~abusive~~ family business!
(though there are of course exceptions to that)
I thought the tariffs were canceled? Or reapplied then canceled? I can't keep up.
I think they were delayed, except for China. But it is hard to keep up.
Schrödinger's tariffs, you don't know what the tax rate is till it arrives at port!
Damn, my shipment of cats is all dead, this time, SAD!!!
It’s not that hard, the 10% was applied, then the reciprocal ones were applied, then delayed except for the ones that weren’t. And then the separate ones on cars and parts, were applied, repealed, and applied again, except for the ones from Canada and Mexico, which are under a different treaty. Except that the ones on Canada are still on, sorta. And the ones on electronics have exceptions, but only from some countries and it covers devices, not parts. Except when it doesn’t. And then the ones on oil and energy are canceled, except some electricity from Canada. Oh, and Israel had theirs canceled. And, of course, this will all change in the next week. See? It’s not that hard. 😜
Upon seeing the empty shelves Conservatives will say "this is what life is like under communism" without a shred of irony.
They did that last time Trump was in office lol, I distinctly remember a post exactly like that
IIRC:
It was an aerial, or highly elevated shot of an extremely wealth district of high rise apartments and condos in... Brazil I think?
Seperated by a giant fence with a favela on the other side.
And then labelled something to the effect of 'this is your brain on communism' or whatever.
EDIT: Something like this, I think:
Rio de Janiero.
The funny thing is you can see exactly this type of separation in the US it just is usually separated by a free way rather than a fence. East and West Highland in San Bernardino comes to mind.
The entire history of the phrase 'wrong side of the tracks' also comes to mind.
Just in Time shipping strikes again
Can't wait until Christmas
Maybe we need empty shelves for a while.
Kind of like how COVID reset our expectations on everything. Bare shelves at Christmas might reset what we really need to buy.
Apparently we bought a bad president last year. Can we return him for a refund?
We bought it used unfortunately, the store won't honor the return :(
Coal.
Lead.
Just in Time shipping and manufacturing only serves one purpose, making quarterly reports look good. Managers and equity firms LOVE JiT because keeping inventory on hand doesn't balance well on their spreadsheets. They can not quantify inventory getting used over the course of a few years because they can't see past the next quarter. To them, it's lost profit; even if it doesn't lose its value and is all but guaranteed to get used/sold eventually.
You would think more companies would have learned the merits of Just in Case manufacturing. Those that did absolutely thrived under COVID as they were the only ones still able to produce.
But no. The COVID crisis "ended" and companies went "Well something like that will certainly never happen again! Back to the old ways!"
Conservatives (and businesses are generally conservative) are great at deluding themselves into adopting any strategy that puts money in their pocket over intelligent strategies that would lead to better long-term outcomes, but cost a little more and/or make slightly less profit.
That's why they stick with Trickle Down Economics, which have poor long-term outcomes for all but the rich, instead of Trickle Up Economics, which helps everyone, even though the inevitable outcome of Trickle Down is a catastrophic shift (for the rich) to Robin Hood Economics (Take from the rich, Give to the poor).
It’s extremely interesting to watch them give trump leeway here. I saw polling recently that many of the trump faithful believe that the tariffs will bring short term pain but it will be worth it for the long term benefits.
What’s going to turbo suck is that they will take the exact wrong lesson from this. It will enforce their short term thinking because they will remember this time that they experienced short term pain for long term gain and the gain never materialized.
I just wish we had the ability as a society to have a more nuanced conversation than sound bites. Ok we disagree about tariffs, one side thinks they are real fucking dumb and the other thinks they are great and will have long term benefits. It would be amazing if we could have an adult conversation about this, how it’s expected to work, how likely that is, what issues might be in the way, etc.
Perhaps it’s decades of being an engineer, but I propose designs that are meant to achieve goals and other engineers check my work, ask questions about things I might not have considered, help play out scenarios that aren’t accounted for and at the end of that we have a better design. As a nation we now seem so incapable of having an honest dialogue between the two major parties that not only are we advancing ideas that obviously won’t work but it’s clear we have no feedback mechanisms to correct course. So now we will just blow up the economy because a group of people think it might, somehow, using mechanisms no one can identify, lead to a future that is “better” where no one can meaningfully define “better.”
And that’s the state of discourse.
Why would the supreme leader care? He doesn't even know what groceries are.
Groceries, such an old word. Groceries.. Grooooceries.
I think you mean McDonald's
You don't need stupid groceries when you have amphetamines and hamburders
Related question- how much did Walmart and Target donate to the trump campaign and/or “inauguration fund?”
They knew this was possible last summer, but they took the gamble. Sometimes you lose.
Could??? It will 100% and we (US residents) are all about to have to deal with the the consequences of electing an idiot as our president.
He cheated. He legally cheated, so he might have won anyway, but he also cheated cheated. Every accusation is projection.
He cheated, not just legally, but illegally. They worked every angle they could. They weren't going to give the Dems the chance to overwhelm their cheating strategy like 2020.
He's going to go even further in the 2026 midterms. It's shaping up to be a bloodbath, and he can't afford to lose his precious Congressional majorities in either chamber, and allow the Dems to control investigative committees with subpoena and arrest powers.
It will be too difficult to control election fraud in so many Congressional districts and all 50 states, so he will be forced to suspend elections, and the easiest way to do that is to declare Martial Law in response to violent protests, and he can make that happen by calling on his RedHat goons, the most violent and loyal of which are the Jan6 insurrectionists he pardoned. Now he's talking about paying them for their time in prison. They'll do anything he tells them to do.
Where are our trump did that stickers.
On the shelves of chinese warehouses, due to his tariffs.
I'm all for a "Hot Tariff Summer." Let the shelves be mostly empty, with everything else tripling in price.
Even MAGAs will feel the pain, and they'll know it is all HitlerPig's fault. Once they start questioning him even a little bit, it's the beginning of the end for him.
His approval ratings are already underwater, and dropping. Let him have his way for a while, and his virtuosic incompetence will do more to reduce his support than anything the Resistance can do.
Then what? Best hope is a Blue wave in 2026, impeachment, then removal. Dont think that's happening sadly. We got 3 more years
Mainstream Dems don't have the balls to do that
Mainstream Dems already impeached him twice. It did shit all to end his first presidency or prevent a second one. It's a worthless step, obviously.
I would agree, if all things remained the same, but allowing his Tariff Economy to stretch its legs, and make the MAGAs and Corporations feel extreme pain, will change the playing field, and alienate many people who were past supporters. If Republican constituents are screaming at their Senators, maybe a significant number will finally decide that enough is enough.
Of course, impeachment/ removal would be a somewhat unsatisfying result, as it would only put Vance in the driver's seat, and psycopath Peter Theil keeps him on a very tight leash. We would be at Theil's mercy, and he has well established that he has none.
Magas won't know it was hitlerpigs fault because Fox News and Newsmax will tell them it's some leftwing conspiracy.
So what? He's not going to care and 2/3 of the electorate in the United States chose Trump.
FYI, those who didn't vote chose Trump as much as the people who voted for Trump
Worth noting that a BUNCH of votes got disqualified thanks to distributed, local efforts by Republicans, and the effort was targeted. The article I read pointed out that black people got their votes tossed 900% more often than white people, for example.
Yeah, but who’s going to be there to notice the empty shelves at target?
Not all the government workers who got fired.
"Please come inside." - Target CEO, reminiscent of "Please clap" Jeb Bush.
And the triple hit of inflation due to tariffs, reduced offer and of course speculation
Muricans are about to get tired of all the winning they voted for
Retailers vs trump. Let them kill each other imo.
I'm checking out. America is going to fuck itself to death and I'm tired of pretending like I care about any of these people.
