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They said that last time too. And the time before that? They said that then too.
Yep, they did. But they weren’t on the brink of tipping-point climate change negative feedback cycles. Exponential growth is great for the economy until it overruns the carrying capacity of the underlying fundamentals.
I expect to live to see worldwide famine and an unimaginably large worldwide refugee crisis as the equatorial band becomes uninhabitable. The groundwater we’ve been pumping out of aquifers took geologic timescales to accumulate, and as it runs out the effect on agriculture will be severe. The Colorado river is enormously oversubscribed, and almost none of the problems that Marc Reisner wrote about over 30 years ago in Cadillac Desert have improved.
I could go on, but it’s all depressing. Yes, this time is much worse. We might claw our way back out of fascism in a reasonable timescale, sure. But the underlying physical realities of the earth’s systems ~~will start~~ have already started to come crashing down and will only intensify within my lifetime, and definitely within the average lifespans of children born today.
Remember the hole in the ozone layer? Or the nuclear threat, some people were sure that the world was going to end before 1984. Then the aids epidemic. And 9/11, my god, nobody was safe anymore! And then the Yellostone caldera, that thing is going to erupt any time now!
The difference (sans 9/11 which isn't really comparable) is that all of those were actively worked on and ultimately solved.
We banned CFCs and fixed the Ozone layer. We have done nuclear reduction treaties with USSR/US and later Russia/US, even under Putin. We had prevention, medical and otherwise for HIV, and then effective treatment where having HIV is honestly not even that big a deal anymore. We've created and improved upon much better seismic measurement methodology and equipment.
People likewise thought the world would end in 2012 but through science and reason we have evolved past such superstitions.
Now let's compare to now:
What has been done about climate change? In the grand scheme - nothing. Renewables are all well and good, but most of the emissions are offset with carbon credits that mean absolutely nothing. Recycling is literally just a lie 99% of the time.
The risk of nuclear confrontation has actually increased, not decreased, since ~2012, between NK, collapsing USA, collapsing fascist Russia, increased standoffs between India and Pakistan, China's increasing militancy, increase in war just generally whether it's Palestine/Israel escalating (yes I'm aware it's been going on forever) or Ethiopia/Eritrea.
At least in my opinion, the bitter rivalry of the Cold war was actually significantly safer than the geopolitical farce we live, which i'd pinpoint as sometime around when Henry Kissinger got the Nobel Peace Prize.
We have the US as world police but the best they could do is give the Taliban some of their gear and get a lot of their own and others killed for it when they weren't busy crashing the world economy and electing fascists with global ambitions for shits and giggles.
Wow what a Belle Époque, Metternich himself would be proud. (/s of course)
We have widespread vaccine mistrust/hesitancy, which puts vulnerable people at risk, not to mention broadly reactionary, outright fascist/nationalist and anti-science, anti-reason and/or anti-intellectual currents among both the elite and powerful strata in society who pretty openly seek to undo the very solutions and improvements we have had over the last 40 odd years and the general population who not only not opposed them, but seem to find these ideas appealing, whether it's intersectional tolerance or workers' rights or people's general freedoms.
On top of all that, we are currently on course for a dictatorship of the rich, and while our conditions in terms of technology and science are nowhere near, our social attitudes seem downright feudal, if not worse when you consider the absurdity of the fact that most of the problems could literally be solved tomorrow (e.g. more empty houses in the UK than homeless people) but simply aren't for no actual legitimate reason whatsoever, and the world not only seems to not have any corrections lined up for this trajectory, but seems to be actively accelerating towards it.
So many times I've tried to ignore the world and tell myself in the grand scheme of things this must just be the darkest moment before the sunset, but it keeps getting darker and darker, and only faster and faster.
And to get ahead of the usual thought terminating cliches of "doomscrolling" and "go outside" in comments in threads like this - My life personally, world notwithstanding, is actually pretty great, I've been enormously lucky compared to many I know IRL, I'm happy on the whole, but it doesn't make the world around me any less hopeless and depressing or change the facts on which I base that opinion.
If anything, the use of those same cliches just proves this point further - because effectively it's no different than the "if I don't look, maybe it'll go away" from that Twilight Zone episode, and all other excuses like "we weren't meant to process this much information" that people use to kill the curiousity they have about the world within their very soul to protect their fragile selves from the absurdity of the hell we seem to inhabit at the moment, only reinforce further that the observation of the world today as bleak definitely has merit.
Renewables have actually been making enormous progress, at least wind and photovoltaic (which is by far the cheapest source of new large scale energy production). I assume that’s why our current dear leader is going so far out of his way to stifle them as much as possible. He’s just following the Project 2025 playbook from the Heritage Foundation, which seeks to preserve the failing US hegemony that is dependent on the petrodollar as the world reserve currency.
But I think you’re right about everything else, including how great my life is right now personally. I just see us on the precipice of doom, like Wile E. Coyote having not yet realized he has run off the cliff’s edge. I understand that it’s hard for a lot of people to project into the future and accept the doom. That requires both a broad understanding that most don’t possess and the nerve to look into the void.
I recently reached more peaceful acceptance about our impending climate and societal collapse after I read Cadillac Desert and realized that even without climate change our water needs are unsustainable and we’re heading for an agricultural collapse.
In the mean time I’m trying to participate in activities that I love and help my children to find activities they love. Might as well get some good times in.
Idk why you're down voted, I'm 100% with you there
The hole in the ozone layer is a great case study in effective amelioration of an anthropogenic climate problem. People got whipped up into a frenzy and politicians listened both to them and to the scientists. We switched refrigerants and have continued research and development to the point that heat pumps are now good enough to work in the winter in most places, using refrigerant blends. The ozone layer is well on its way to recovery. The overall response was excellent, and the Montreal Protocol was likely the most successful international agreement ever. That’s a stark contrast to our modern climate denialism and the vilification of science.
The nuclear threat is still real, but mutually assured destruction turns out to have been a pretty effective deterrent. But hey, maybe nuclear winter is the answer to global warming.
I don’t think anyone saw AIDS or 9/11 as an existential threat. I agree that there have always been things to dread, but you’re just building a strawman.
Dread about uncontrollable geologic forces is natural, but it’s not what I’m talking about. Yellowstone could erupt, sure. Many other geologic disasters could also occur, and humans would be along for a short ride of doom. That’s just life, and that’s okay.
But it’s especially depressing to watch the slow-motion failure of our social species to be able to communicate and organize effectively enough to stop a climate problem of our own making. It’s technologically preventable, but not socially. And at this point, I argue that it’s morally wrong to create children without realistic hope for a better future.