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One theory circulating online is that the pilots may have accidentally retracted the flaps instead of the landing gear. Apparently that would result in kind of a flight path seen on the published videos.
While this cannot be confirmed or ruled out with the information we have, in my opinion the available videos seem to kinda support this theory. Initially the aircraft appears to take off and climb normally, but for some reason the gear is not being retracted when usually it would be retracted right after the takeoff.
Naturally the gear could be forgotten or left intentionally down if there were a dual engine failure right after takeoff, for example, but as the videos show no evidence of this, I'm more inclined to believe in simple pilot error.
I did see one person commenting on the other video that they could see the flaps were in the wrong position. And it is conspicuous that the landing gear was not retracted - though could that be because the pilots realized they were in trouble and would need to attempt a crash landing, or were too busy with whatever else had gone wrong?
Are the 787's controls arranged in such a way that you could accidentally retract the flaps instead of the landing gear?
Not in a sense that someone could just grab the wrong lever in the dark for example. The levers are in different parts of the cockpit and also shaped very differently. But we humans can do all kinds of weird mistakes that are hard to explain. Almost everyone has experienced this sometimes. Think something like searching for you phone while it's in your hand. Afterwards it's very hard to explain why would anyone do such a silly mistake but it still happened. This would be similar.
The plane was in takeoff config: https://imgur.com/a/JzS3ro9
According to type rated pilots the 787 doesn’t allow you to retract flaps immediately in critical flight after takeoff.
That's interesting. Do you have the source for that? I wasn't able to find a definitive answer with google
I think the simplest explanation, and the most likely one, is the pilots were too busy dealing with whatever shit was hitting the fan to raise the landing gear.
And, in my view, that's a loss of engine power for whatever reason, possibly bad fuel.
I'm not an expert, but pretty much every plane crash expert on the planet is watching the same footage and saying they don't know what's happened.
It's absurd to suggest the pilots accidentally retracted the flaps and no one figured that out yet.
Damn, did I miss the plane crash expert unison chant again?
It's less that you missed it and more that they chose not to invite you
:(
This is what you get for questioning The Consensus
I don't get what you mean by "and no one figured that out yet." As you said yourself, no one knows what happened yet. Pretty much all we have at this point are the videos, and all we can confirm from them is a rough flight path of the plane and that the landing gear remained down after what appeared to be a normal takeoff. I haven't seen any footage that clearly shows the state of the flaps with any certainty, but please correct me if I've missed something.
In my mind, that leaves us with three possible scenarios:
From the two scenarios (pilot error, engine failure) that fit the flight path from the videos, the option one seems more plausible to me. But that’s just my armchair opinion, it doesn't mean anything. All we can really do is wait for the investigation and the preliminary report.
I mean there's many experts watching the same footage who are not making an assertion that the pilots got confused about the landing gear and the flaps.
They're also not saying it couldn't have happened, are they? They're waiting for investigators to gather all the facts before making any statements, just like they should.
Meanwhile, we here on the internet are just speculating based on the limited information available (basically just the video footage). Based on the current information we have, my opinion is that pilot error is the most likely cause.
You're free to disagree about the likelihood of different scenarios, but right now we have no evidence that makes the theory of the pilots accidentally retracting the flaps instead of the gear impossible or "absurd." It's really counterproductive to start ruling out scenarios without concrete proof.
It's really counter-productive to play armchair air crash investigator.
Flaps are typically retracted not long after takeoff anyway, every flight I've been on has done that.
There are minimum airspeeds the aircraft must reach before the flaps can be safely retracted. I don't know the exact numbers, but assuming a standard flaps 5 takeoff for B787, retraction to flaps 1 would occur around 1000 ft by earliest, that's typically 20 to 30 seconds after the takeoff.
Also gear should probably be retracted first (though I don't actually know for certain for this aircraft)
Usually the gear is retracted almost immediately after takeoff, as it creates a huge amount of unnecessary drag if left out when not needed.
Ya that's true for multiengine in general. I just didn't know if there was any other sequencing needed for the 787 (like move flaps from 5 to 4) because I know nothing about flying such large planes.