this post was submitted on 09 Dec 2025
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[Op-ed by Maria Popova and Anastasia Leshchyshyn, both researchers at McGill University.]

When Canadians think about our neighbours, we generally think only of one: the United States. But we also have a neighbour to the North: Russia, whose proximity has only been enhanced by the effects of climate change on the Arctic.

And we need to shift our assumptions quickly. With the terms of Ukraine’s future now being determined, the kind of Russia that emerges from the Russo-Ukrainian war is the one Canada will meet in the Arctic.

...

However, despite our mental maps fooling us otherwise, the North does not end with us; the Russian neighbour just across the Arctic Circle is much closer than we tend to realize.

Last week’s speech by CSIS Director Daniel Rogers should jolt Canadians from their North American preoccupations and reorient our attention to Canada’s Arctic with warnings that Russia and China have “significant intelligence interests” in the region.

Word of Russian prowling in the Arctic is far from revelatory, and it has been suggested that Rogers’ address was a timely effort to shore up public support for the Carney government’s recent increases in defence spending. Yet “significant” was also the adjective selected by Rogers to describe Russia’s military presence in the Arctic, and the state itself was notably characterized as remaining “unpredictable and aggressive.”

...

In a speech delivered in Kyiv on Ukraine’s Independence Day in August 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney offered an assessment of Russia’s imperial ambitions in Ukraine: “We see this war clearly, as a horrific act of aggression, a maniacal quest to recreate a history that itself was filled with injustice, and we know that peace will only come through strength.”

Canadians are perhaps not as clearsighted in comprehending their own country’s proximity to this same aggressor, and even less so in their ability to predict or imagine how exactly Russian aggression might manifest to undermine Canadian interests.

...

To call Russia our neighbour would be to recognize that the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war has direct implications for Canadian security, and that support for Ukraine is a direct investment in our own defence, rather than a donation to a distant cause.

To call Russia our neighbour would be to induce a shift in Canada’s broader political calculus, by illuminating the scope of our susceptibilities and expanding our understanding of what the defence of our interests entails.

...

If Ukraine is defeated, Canada risks dealing with an emboldened, expansionist neighbour — and not just the one to our south.

...

all 37 comments
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[–] badmancrooks@lemmy.ca 43 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I'm more concerned about the neighbor that has verbally expressed a desire to use economic means to pressure Canada into agreeing to be annexed only to become a territory with no representation while they've also enacted a decades long propaganda campaign to destabilize one of our most resource rich regions with pro-separatist messaging? If Canada is the Ukraine, then Alberta is Crimea in 2014 and Russia is the United States, bro.

[–] ILikeBoobies@lemmy.ca 18 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Historically Russia has questioned our sovereignty and claims our Arctic is theirs.

But the US is the bigger enemy.

[–] Lemmyoutofhere@lemmy.ca 12 points 1 day ago

The russia and the US are becoming allies.

[–] badmancrooks@lemmy.ca 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Trump famously drew a line straight across Ontario and Quebec, presented this map on international news and said that the border was an arbitrary line based on bad old deals, effectively making everything East of Brampton, the United States. I didn't really exaggerate almost any of what I just said.

[–] FireRetardant@lemmy.world 14 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Plot twist, Russia and America work together to swing Canada one way or another before they fight each other for Canada.

[–] LeFantome@programming.dev 1 points 20 hours ago

That would be a plot twist. Far more likely is that they go in on it together.

[–] BakerBagel@midwest.social 14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

The US has viewed Canada as America's rightful property since 1775. Russia of course interested in on the Arctic seaways that are going to open up in the coming decades, but Canada 's greatest threat always has, and will continue to be, its Southern neighbor. Russia won't need anything from the Northwest Territory or Nunavut for the same reason that the UK isn't horribly concerned with shipping lanes off the coast of Norway.

[–] Grandwolf319@sh.itjust.works 12 points 1 day ago (4 children)

I don’t think the US would allow that to happen, not because they are our allies, but because when push comes to shove, they think of Canada as within their area of influence.

This is supported by the fact that they have Alaska there, which is very, very close to Russia.

Letting Russia chew through Europe would mean EU has less influence in global politics, that’s not really a factor with Canada.

What I mean is that we should be on guard but imo US will always be a greater threat to our sovereignty than Russia, as the latter already has undisputed partial access to the arctic but the US does not.

[–] Threeskittiesinatrenchcoat@lemmy.ca 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Considering Trump just relaunched Monroe 2.0, this is the correct answer.

We're in what the American administration considers their sphere of influence. This is going to be true no matter what our relationship with the US is, friend or foe.

[–] LeFantome@programming.dev 4 points 1 day ago

They may team up

[–] kent_eh@lemmy.ca 1 points 20 hours ago

not because they are our allies, but because when push comes to shove, they think of Canada as within their area of influence.

But mostly because they have always thought of Canada as the buffer zone between the US and Russia.

[–] villasv@lemmy.ca 1 points 1 day ago

I agree.

Letting Russia chew through Europe would mean EU has less influence in global politics, that’s not really a factor with Canada.

And this whole proxy war against Russia has been not that bad of a deal for the US, which is why it's so regrettable that the US is now withdrawing its support.

But letting Russia encroach via Canada is basically the opposite situation of letting the US (through NATO) encroach via Ukraine. Their stupid golden dome is not as effective if Russia can just move underneath.

[–] mrdown@lemmy.world 12 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Yeah sure. Russia will decide to attack us before the former URSS entities. This article is just propaganda. I guess to push us to the 5% of GDP Trumo want for us instead of assessing the right percentage for our situation

[–] LeFantome@programming.dev 1 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Did you mean USSR? I assume so but it is just “not obvious” enough that I may be missing out on what URSS means.

[–] mrdown@lemmy.world 1 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago)

Yes USSR. In french it is URSS

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 10 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Don't even need to read one paragraph down before being able to correctly guess this is another propaganda piece pushed by Scotty Sockpuppet.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org -1 points 1 day ago (2 children)

@AGM

I just want to thank you for your respectful and sophisticated comment.

[–] AGM@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 day ago

You're welcome, Scotty! You fully deserve it.

[–] LeFantome@programming.dev 1 points 20 hours ago

I see that you have responded to multiple people this way.

I have never heard of you but your responses lead me to believe that they are correct.

[–] bdonvr@thelemmy.club 9 points 1 day ago (1 children)

No and this is propaganda bullshit

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org 0 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Thank you for this deep insight.

[–] DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social 2 points 8 hours ago

It doesn't need to be deep fam, it's pretty embarrassing to scaremonger about Russia when your neighbor is the American Empire that has made specific territorial threats against you.

[–] Scotty@scribe.disroot.org 4 points 1 day ago

Just today, Russia's state-controlled propaganda agency TASS cited Alexander Moiseev, the head of the Russian Navy, who said that, according to him, NATO countries have significantly stepped up their spying activities in the Arctic.

Moiseev was quoted as saying that anti-submarine aircraft based in Iceland had become much more active, a reference TASS said to U.S., British and Canadian surveillance planes.

Moiseev, who also spoke of NATO plans to deploy strategic surveillance drones in Finland, was cited as saying that NATO’s aim was to contain Russian activities in the Arctic.

So the U.S. may be a threat, but so is Russia. And don't forget China which is seeking access to the Arctic as well.

[–] theacharnian@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

The new Trump Doctrine national security strategy document (the same one that attacks Europe for being too woke) is all about how the Western Hemisphere is theirs and does not identify Russia as a US adversary. Corollary: we already have a pimp.

[–] mrbn@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

No, they won't. Russia won't risk going to war with NATO (mentioned in the article). Now if they try the "grey-zone" tactics, who's to say they're not already doing that with Canada and many other countries..

[–] r8KNzcU8TzCroexsE2xbWC@lemmy.ca 9 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

That presumes that NATO will continue to be an effective deterrent. I’m not convinced that’s the case in the coming years.

[–] hume_lemmy@lemmy.ca 6 points 1 day ago (1 children)

While the US is a very big chunk of NATO, it's not ALL of NATO. And while the US has certainly betrayed its principles, the other members seem to be waking up to that fact.

[–] LeFantome@programming.dev 3 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago)

In practice, Finland and Poland are the greatest protection against Russia as they are very much in the way and would trigger all of NATO.

Many European counties have very credible defence industries. From what we have seen in Ukraine, NATO (even without the US) has both a technological and tactics advantage against Russia.

We are also seeing that warfare has changed. He who makes the most drones and cruise missiles wins.

And Europe could massively outspend Russia, again without help from the US.

Germany has massively stepped up their military spending. If they had to, Norway to completely fund a NATO war against Russia on their own.

The only thing the US really brings to NATO these days is their nuclear arsenal. But again, Russia has shown that their “superiority” in this area is useless in practice. It will not help them in a war with Europe.

The only way that Europe loses against Russia is if the US teams up with them. This used to be an insanely unlikely outcome but….

[–] Quilotoa@lemmy.ca 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Russia is far down the list of countries most likely to invade Canada.

[–] LeFantome@programming.dev 4 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

The most of countries likely to invade Canada is as follows:

  • the USA

Nobody else could manage a land assault on North America. Coming in from the arctic would be almost impossible.

Invading from the west or south means the US is in the way. And the US is unlikely to tolerate an invasion to the continent anyway (unless they are involved). And where is an invasion from the east being staged? Europe?

[–] Canconda@lemmy.ca 2 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago) (1 children)

China has a better chance than Russia because they're actively planning an invasion of Taiwan and developing landing capabilities Russia doesn't have.

Also China has a drone production advantage over Russia. Which drones would be absolutely necessary to affect any real control over Canada's vast wilderness.

Not that I think China would... They seem perfectly capable of using economic tactics to secure their interests.

[–] DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social 1 points 8 hours ago

You're assuming the Russians won't have help from the US Navy

[–] Skullgrid@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

if FNV has taught me anything, the supply lines through the arctic will basically make this impossible.

[–] IndridCold@lemmy.ca 1 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

I'm not worries about Russia because they are digging a huge hole in Ukraine. Who are they going to use to attack Canada? They're even scraping North Korea for bodies in Ukraine.

They can barely keep supply lines open for an attack on a country next door to them. How are they going to feed a supply line on the other side of the planet?

They could nuke us, but to what end?

Maybe 10 years ago I might have thought they could have done damage, but seeing them in Ukraine just shows they don't have the talent or the infrastructure for an attack of that size. Canada is a huge country.

I'm not worried about the US because Trump is pushing out all the intelligent people and bringing in minions who study cocksuckery. In a year all the talent will have left the military. Even a few months ago they couldn't even manage to bomb known positions of reactors in Iran. They don't understand what would be involved in a land war with a neighbour who looks and sounds just like them. Not to mention probably more than half the US wouldn't support an invasion of Canada. Most of the would wouldn't support it.

Yeah, it would be a huge mess but it's a mess that would tear their country apart and result in crippling sanctions from the world.

Trump's administration is incredibly stupid, but I think enough of them realize this.