this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2025
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While this is an amazing operation, and has definitely permanently crippled the russian strategic air force, it's probably not a turning point.
Russia needs 1-2 of these planes operational to deliver its strike packages (at least the ones we've seen until now). That likely means 4-6 planes total to account for down-time.
This war will end when russia runs out of heavy equipment (we're getting closer every day), burns through its forces even faster than now (has been accelerating the past years due to shortages of armour), sees further drops in recruitment (it is dropping due to massive casualty rates), and unarmored russians on the frontline without heavy weapons begin to break and flee under Ukrainian assaults.
Ukraine is working very hard to preserve its forces and materiel, while russia is burning through both at an amazingly unsustainable rate. European military production is increasing by the day, so sooner or later the scales will tip in Ukraines favour, and when they do, the russians won't have much to fight back with.