this post was submitted on 27 Feb 2025
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That is simply verifiably false and absurd to claim.
Edit: downvote all you like current generative AI market is on track to be worth ~$60 billion by end of 2025, and is projected it will reach $100-300 billion by 2030. Dead end indeed.
What's the billable market cap on which services exactly?
How will there be enough revenue to justify a 60 billion evaluation?
ever heard of hype trains, fomo and bubbles?
Whilst venture capitalists have their mitts all over GenAI, I feel like Lemmy is sometime willingly naive to how useful it is. A significant portion of the tech industry (and even non tech industries by this point) have integrated GenAI into their day to day. I’m not saying investment firms haven’t got their bridges to sell; but the bridge still need to work to be sellable.
again: hype train, fomo, bubble.
So no tech that blows up on the market is useful? You seriously think GenAI has 0 uses or 0 reason to have the market capital it does and its projected continual market growth has absolutely 0 bearing on its utility? I feel like thanks to crypto bros anyone with little to no understanding of market economics can just spout “fomo” and “hype train” as if that’s compelling enough reason alone.
The explosion of research into AI? It’s use for education? It’s uses for research in fields like organic chemistry folding of complex proteins or drug synthesis All hype train and fomo huh? Again: naive.
Is the market cap on speculative chemical analysis that many billions?
Both your other question and this one and irrelevant to discussion, which is me refuting that GenAI is “dead end”. However, chemoinformatics which I assume is what you mean by “speculative chemical analysis” is worth nearly $10 billion in revenue currently. Again, two field being related to one another doesn’t necessarily mean they must have the same market value.
Right, and what percentage of their expenditures is software tooling?
Who's paying for this shit? Anybody? Who's selling it without a loss? Anybody?
Boy these goalpost sure are getting hard to see now.
Is anybody paying for ChatGPT, the myriad of code completion models, the hosting for them, dialpadAI, Sider and so on? Oh I’m sure one or two people at least. A lot of tech (and non tech) companies, mine included, do so for stuff like Dialpad and sider off the top of my head.
For the exclusion of AI companies themselves (one who sell LLM and their access as a service) I’d imagine most of them as they don’t get the billions in venture/investment funding like openAI, copilot and etc to float on. We usually only see revenue not profitability posted by companies. Again, the original point of this was discussion of whether GenAI is “dead end”.
Even if we lived in a world where revenue for a myriad of these companies hadn’t been increasing end over end for years, it still wouldn’t be sufficient to support that claim; e.g. open source models, research inside and out of academia.
They are losing money on their 200$ subscriber plan afaik. These "goalposts" are all saying the same thing.
It is a dead end because of the way it's being driven.
You brought up 100 billion by 2030. There's no revenue, and it's not useful to people. Saying there's some speculated value but not showing that there's real services or a real product makes this a speculative investment vehicle, not science or technology.
Small research projects and niche production use cases aren't 100b. You aren't disproving it's hypetrain with such small real examples.
I appreciate the more substantial reply.
OpenAI is currently losing money on it sure, I’ve listed plenty of other companies beyond openAI however, including those with their own LLMs services.
GenAI is not solely 100b nor ChatGPT.
I’ve repeatedly shown and linked services and products in this thread.
This alone I think makes it pretty clear your position isn’t based on any rational perspective. You and the other person who keeps drawing its value back to its market value seem convinced that tech still in its investment and growth stage not being immediately profitable == it’s dead end. Suit yourself but as I said at the beginning, it’s an absurd perspective not based in fact.
If it doesn't have real revenue, it can't pay for it's carbon footprint and will/should be regulated.
If there's no known way to prevent these models from regurgitating copywrited works if they are trained on those works, how will it not be regulated that way?
Like I said, the way it's driven now. It could be done differently.
How very nice.
How's the cocaine market?
Wow, such a compelling argument.
If the rapid progress over the past 5 or so years isn’t enough (consumer grade GPU used to generate double digit tokens per minute at best), it’s wide spread adoption and market capture isn’t enough, what is?
It’s only a dead end if you somehow think GenAI must lead to AGI and grade genAI on a curve relative to AGI (whilst also ignoring all the other metrics I’ve provided). Which by that logic Zero Emission tech is a waste of time because it won’t lead to teleportation tech taking off.