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Most people arent playing the market daily. Especially in something like a 401k. You dont need to time the bottom. We're already in a correction, and its still going. You can wait until the market recovers, and as long as you buy back at a price lower than what you sold, call it a win.
Dont chase, "what could have been" because youll always feel like you lost
Right, thats the magic, but its not that easy. No one knows when that will occur.
You have to accurately predict both a high enough point to profit, but also, and much harder, put the money back in when you decide its "low enough". Look at historical recoveries. You said it yourself, most people aren't playing the market daily. The folks that are pulling out may miss the recovery by weeks or more because they're not watching. I know I don't watch that closely, but I also don't try to time the market.
Isn't that what trying to time the market is doing? The folks that are pulling out to put in later are attempting to time the market.
I'm arguing the opposite. "Time in the market beats timing the market."
We have a lot of the same points, but what im trying to drive home is that, "buy low, sell high," doesnt mean, "buy the lowest, sell the peak." Markets in correction right now, its generally trending down. Potentially will turn bear market. You dont need to follow daily to know that. Now is as good a time to sell as last week, or the peak. You didnt miss it.
When it goes down more, you dont need to see the bottom. You can wait until it hits recovery or bull market even, and buy back. That point will likely be lower than where you sold even if its not the lowest. You dont need to buy the bottom, but buying lower than you sold is a win.
So when are you recommending buying back in with your strategy? 1 point lower than you sold for? 10? 100? 1000?
Unless you miss that point, and you have to buy back in higher than you sold for, and it could be years before its ever low enough for you to "buy back in low than you sold".
If you buy back in when its higher than your arbitrary threshold, but then drops back down again the next day, do you sell again?
I went almost 100% cash recently. I’m waiting for another 10% decline in the sp500. Then reassessing. Probably start buying back gradually.
Never thought I’d time the market with this much of my money. In ‘07, I didn’t sell. I shoveled as much as I could into that furnace. This time truly is different, though. The prez works for a foreign adversary.
I wish you luck. This is the fourth huge stock selloff in my lifetime, and for none of them did I accurately predict the recovery.
Dude. This isn’t a huge selloff. This is barely a selloff. For now, anyway.
We agree on the current state. Do you believe this is just a minor blip?
You're looking to split hairs where I see no point. If we agree, leave it alone. And, given my comments so far, it's quite obvious that I expect a significant downturn that has yet to fully materialize.
Those are technical terms. Thats when i recommend buying back in.
Those are only defined for a time period historically. When those time periods have those names, you're at the point I'm talking about where you may have missed the entry point to buy in cheaply. Nobody says, with any faith or knowledge, "this is it! this is the recovery starting right now!".
There are mathmatical definitions. Like our current correction happened when we were 10% below peak. Thats what i mean by calling them technical terms
I agree, especially since interest rates are currently relatively high, it's quite OK to remain liquid these days.