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My gf works in human remains identification. On the bottom of the DNA identification reports, they have a certainty estimate:
1 in 19,000,000,000,000 (trillion) chance of being incorrect.
So if that's any estimate of how many variations there can be, I'd say chances of repeats are pretty low lol
Note: I didn't believe her when she quoted 1 in 13 trillion, so she double checked the next day. They seem... confident
Correction: I talked to her again, and was completely wrong, because my memory refused to accept the real number:
1 in 200,000,000,000,000 (trillion) chance of being wrong.
And to the commenter that commented about common identifiers, you are correct. She's fairly confident they use the SNP method.
That's pretty interesting. I've done some genotyping before, and I'm guessing that they probably check a handful of distinctive genes, not the entire genome.
For example, if they checked 45 binary markers (e.g. positive or negative) that would get you into that ballpark (assuming that they are evenly distributed and not correlated). Of course, there are also markers that are not binary but can have many different variations other than positive and negative.
That's actually really cool to know. She was fairly confident they use the SNP method (it's a third party provider), and described it the way you did. Sounds like full genome is possible but she didn't think it likely, your explanation would support that.
Also, I made a correction to the numbers..I was very wrong lol