this post was submitted on 02 Nov 2025
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I think we might overestimate how qualified a junior doctor is after doing all the exams. This article (from 2009, well before LLMs) says junior doctors screw up in 8% of prescriptions they write, with half of the mistakes "potentially significant". This is after any chance at having a supervising doctor review. It says pharmacists generally save the day by spotting the errors.
I also found local numbers showing about 16% of junior doctors never make it through training (the article is saying it's actually 40%, but 16% is their "normal"). That will include burnout and other reasons for not continuing, but I'm pretty sure with such a decent proportion of people dropping out you can expect the ones that haven't taken in enough understanding despite passing their exams are commonly dropping out as part of that group, and though LLMs may have increased the pool I doubt we can assume these people make it through training without learning what they need to know. Becoming a doctor is just so intense that it doesn't seem likely.
As has been pointed out by someone else, our concern should probably lie in those that pass exams then go on to do medical (or other) roles without any supervision period.