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AGI is possible, the question is whether this bubble will reach it, or if it will arise out of the corpses after the crash.
I personally don't think the current LLM tech will ever evolve into AGI, but it's totally possible one of these companies will moonshot AGI off the side of one of their engineer's desk accidentally.
The infrastructure that's going to be left sitting around after the impending crash is going to make for some absolutely insanely cheap opportunities for some really smart (or lucky) groups of people to pull off the miracle and/or catastrophe that will be AGI.
Llms can't become agi. Not with how they're built today. They're a giant text processing and association engine trained on reddit comments. It only appears smart to us because it speaks English like the internet does.
But they cant think. Not really. They can only associate existing ideas and thoughts. Not make new ones.
I’m sure the government will absorb most of that unused infrastructure. And another thing, if anyone’s going to develop it, it’ll be DARPA.
A hell of a lot of advancement comes from "that's strange" and "oops"
DARPA doesn't tend to be the one doing anything but supplying some funding.