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If COVID originated from a lab in China, do you think they should be penalized for it?
(www.nbcnews.com)
this post was submitted on 26 Jul 2025
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The other commenters have covered some of the points I'd make, so I'll add: After decades of investigation into Patient Zero for AIDS/HIV, there wasn't a single, identifiable transmission event to which the epidemic traced, but rather evidence that the virus was present here and there long before the disease was identified.
Intuitively, I think it's the same with COVID-19, that there wasn't a single, discrete animal-to-human transmission event. Even if my analogy to HIV is faulty, China built the lab in Wuhan to study endemic coronaviruses; that means that anything in the lab had been in the wild for years before researchers collected a sample of it. Therefore, it's overwhelmingly likely that humans had already been exposed to some form of it, and it was present in local populations. At the very least, there would have had to be multiple exposures, because not everybody exposed to the virus got infected, not everybody infected showed symptoms, and not everybody with symptoms transmitted the virus to other people. That, and the fact that it's a respiratory disease, and does not spread by surface contact, makes a lab leak seem exceedingly unlikely.
So, even if the Wuhan lab failed at biocontainment, and people caught a strain of virus it was studying, that wasn't the cause of the pandemic, which could have kicked off any number of ways. I'm not going to dismiss the possibility of a lab leak outright, but on the other hand, even if it's true, there's little practical value to the knowing about it other than improving biocontainment procedures. It certainly doesn't justify the Sinophobia that tends to accompany the lab leak theory, and the Sinophobia is what I think makes people reject the lab leak possibility so vehemently.
(The other "lab leak theory," that it was an engineered bioweapon that escaped, is for drooling morons. Nobody has that technology, not even close.)
Wait, I thought it could spread from surfaces? Otherwise what was the point of all the handwashing/hand sanitiser advice?
It's definitely very, very unlikely it was engineered, that's hogwash. But discovered in the environment and kept to use as a potential bioweapon shouldn't be dismissed so readily. It terrifies me that the US has stores of smallpox, considering its history.
In saying that I very much doubt it was a lab leak. I think there's something inherently racist there, that ties back to the whole "chinesium" bullcrap. As if Chinese labs are worse at maintaining containment somehow.
Turns out it was hygiene theater for a while. In the early days, we just didn't know how it was transmitted, so the CDC recommended hand-washing and surface sanitizing out of an abundance of caution. I worked at a grocery store through the pandemic, where both of the owners were very community-oriented, and one was a low-key germophobe. They took the CDC recommendations seriously, and we all had to wear disposable gloves, as well as follow all sorts of protocols to sanitize surfaces.
Later on in the course of the pandemic, scientists started to question whether COVID-19 could spread on surfaces, because the evidence wasn't showing up. In fact, there was a study done back in the 1980's here at the University of Wisconsin in which volunteers who were sick with respiratory viruses (incl. coronaviruses) would read newspapers, play cards, play board games, etc. in a room, and then the researchers would bring healthy volunteers into the same room to do the same. Zero healthy volunteers got sick, so the researchers had the ill volunteers cough and sneeze directly on the shared objects before handing over the room. Again, zero healthy volunteers got sick. They were unable to demonstrate any surface-contact transmission.
This news came out, but the CDC was slow to update its recommendations. There was a period during which I was highly annoyed at having to wear the gloves, and spray surfaces with the extremely-expensive electrospray gun, when it was already scientific consensus (minus the CDC) that COVID-19 didn't spread through surface contact. Eventually, they did update their recommendations, and we were able to stop with the rigamarole. Sales of hand sanitizer and wipes dropped off (but still were high, because the new information wasn't universally known). If I understand it correctly (eh...), the virus which causes COVID-19 is relatively delicate, and its structure is supported by the water droplets which spread it. Once the droplets hit a surface, the protein structure of the virion collapses, and it's no longer capable of infecting a cell.
Anyway, yeah, it was an abundance of caution, which turned into hygiene theater.
Oh, I'm a little drunk, so I forgot the second point. Maybe I'm not devious enough to lead a bioweapons program, but I would think that research into potential bioweapons would primarily focus on a vaccine or a treatment. Nasty disease outbreaks occur naturally, and as we saw with COVID-19, they affect everybody. Why would any nation release a bioweapon that's going to hammer itself just as much as the enemy? That would only make sense to me in maybe a Dead Hand-like scenario, in which your nation has already fallen, and you release it as vengeance from the grave.
But, that still doesn't make sense to me, because we don't have any reliable way to look at a virus and determine its potential for causing a pandemic. That might not even be possible, since there are/were lots of viruses that seem like they should cause a pandemic, but just haven't.