Ontario

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/40374512

Electoral Renewal Canada on Bluesky

Did strategic voting matter in the Ontario Election?

My verdict is that a large number of people DID vote strategically in this election. However, I don't believe it was a determining factor.

It did deliver a massive advantage to sitting MPPs. Let's look at the numbers. (1/6)

🟧 NDP incumbents performed remarkably well.

Avg. NDP candidate: -5.5% (compared to '22) Ridings NDP won in '22: -0.7% Ridings w/ NDP inc. running for re-election: +3.0% (‼️)

This difference is unusual, but it's quite clear that the NDP benefitted >when they had a strong name to rally around. (2/6)

🟥 Liberal incumbents also overperformed.

Avg. OLP candidate: +6.1 Ridings w/ Liberal incumbent running for re-election: +13.4

In all elections, incumbents do have a name recognition advantage, but beating the median by more than 7% is notable. (3/6)

Here's why I think strategic voting was at play. Here is he swing for:

🟧 NDP candidates in OLP ridings: -10.0% (4.5% below avg.)

🟥 OLP candidates in NDP ridings: +0.8% (5.3% below avg.)

I think this shows, when there was a clear name to rally around, a noticeable % of NDP and OLP voters did (4/6)

Here is where I dispel some enthusiasm.

In 2018, if you bundled Liberal and NDP votes into one party, they would have won 82 seats.

In 2022, that number was down to 71.

In 2025, it was 61. Which means that even with "perfect" strategic voting, there would be no majority for the coalition. (5/6)

The fact is that, even as it seems that many Ontarians did attempt to vote strategically, it did not impact the outcome of the election.

If voters are frustrated that a third consecutive Ford government is being upheld by a 40% majority, perhaps we should consider proportional representation. (6/6)

FFRF on Bluesky

Bragging about low vaccination rates during a measles outbreak isn’t a flex—it’s reckless endangerment. Protecting children should come before politics or ideology. Public health isn’t a debate.

Measles 🦠

• highly contagious! One person catching could spread it up to R~0~: ~17 other people, while COVID-19 has R~0~: ~3. That means measles is ~5.67× more contagious than COVID-19.
• is unique in that measles wipes out existing immunity for other diseases. Measles can cause you to become infected to pathogens you were once immune to.
• is caused by a virus, therefore antibiotics are wholly ineffective
• can be vaccinated against 💉

Recognizing and Responding to Measles Symptoms

If you are travelling this spring, remain vigilant for measles symptoms. Measles typically starts with fever; red, watery eyes; runny nose; and, cough; followed by a red rash that spreads from the face to the rest of the body.

If you suspect you have measles while travelling in or returning to Canada:

• Wear a well-fitting medical mask and minimize contact with others.
• Inform a flight attendant, cruise staff, or border services officer upon arrival.

Stay Protected: Get Vaccinated

With measles cases rising worldwide and in Canada, keeping up with routine vaccinations is more critical than ever. Measles vaccination is highly effective in limiting transmission and preventing severe outcomes. If you are unsure of your vaccination status, check with your healthcare provider or local public health unit.

By staying vigilant and working together to increase measles vaccine coverage, we can prevent outbreaks and keep our communities safe against this preventable disease. The measles vaccine is the best way to protect you and your family.

If you think you or a family member has the measles, or you think you’ve been exposed to measles, call your health care provider immediately – do not go to a health care facility or office without calling ahead first

Please go get vaccinated, folks. Vaccines are demonstrated to be safe and effective time and time again.

Unimmunized 159 (89.8%) (from Public Health Ontario)

External links 🖇️

• Digital and Virtual Care Services | Ontario Health

Related article: Measles cases nearly double in Ontario over last 2 weeks, far surpassing last decade's total | CBC News.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/40252119

Fair Vote Canada on Bluesky

How is this democratic?

It's time for proportional representation.

#cdnpoli #onpoli

A political infographic titled 'Ontario votes 2025' compares the popular vote and seat distribution in the Ontario election. On the left, a pie chart labeled 'How we voted (popular vote)' shows: PC (43%), Liberal (29.9%), NDP (18.6%), Green (4.8%), and Other (3.8%). On the right, a pie chart labeled 'What we got (seats)' shows: PC (64.5%), NDP (21.8%), Liberal (11.3%), Green (1.6%), and Other (0.8%). The infographic highlights the discrepancy between votes cast and seats won under the first-past-the-post system.

The Supreme Court of Canada has struck down a Ford government law that restricted political advertising by third parties, such as unions, in the year ahead of a scheduled election campaign.

The top court ruled in a 5-4 decision that the law allowed for political parties’ ads to “drown out” those of third-party groups, infringing on citizens' right to meaningfully participate in the democratic process.

“The information available to voters in Ontario in the year before an election must include the interests, voices and views of different citizens and parties,” reads the majority decision written by Justice Andromache Karakatsanis.

Ombudsman Ontario on Bluesky

A 16-year-old in care of a children’s aid society felt that her needs were not being met since she had a change in caseworkers. With her consent, we raised her concerns, and she now has support for shelter, clothing and food. Learn more: ow.ly/sZiV50V2fLy

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/40034360

With Duverger's Law (i.e., in non-PR electoral systems, a trend towards a two-parties), we are running out of time to act. Canada's 2021 effective number of parties is 2.76 - this number will decrease over time, and will eventually end Canadian democracy as we know it today.

The only way to prevent this democratic backsliding is proportional representation: !fairvote@lemmy.ca

Will the Trump administration's gutting of its country's scientific and research infrastructure have a positive effect on innovation in Canada? Then, a number of poultry farms are under quarantine in Ontario because of H5N1. The Agenda looks at how it happened, what the risks are, and what researchers are tracking.

Ombudsman Ontario sur Bluesky

Une jeune de 16 ans prise en charge s’est sentie ignorée après un changement de travailleurs sociaux. Avec son accord, nous avons fait part de ses inquiétudes et elle bénéficie maintenant de l'aide pour se loger, se vêtir et se nourrir. En savoir plus : ow.ly/aaw150V2fUi

I listen to the CBC daily, today’s Ottawa Morning has FairVote on and it’s been a good segment.

The guest (missed his name) is doing a great job explaining the issue and how proportional representation works.

The clips I think can be relistened to on the CBC Radio app or their podcasts, but I’m not sure how to find them

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-100-ottawa-morning

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/39924990

John Michael McGrath on Bluesky

INBOX: the Supreme Court of Canada will next Friday release its judgement in the case of Ontario v. Working Families, on whether Ford govt's campaign finance rules and the notwithstanding clause was properly invoked.

Attorney General of Ontario v. Working Families Coalition (Canada) Inc., et al.

Supreme Court of Canada case number: 40725.

Case summaries are prepared by the Office of the Registrar of the Supreme Court of Canada (Law Branch). Please note that summaries are not provided to the Judges of the Court. They are placed on the Court file and website for information purposes only.

This case concerns the third party spending limits most recently added to the Election Finances Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. E.7 (“EFA”), in 2021, and whether they infringe the informational component of the right to vote (i.e., a citizen’s right to exercise their vote in an informed manner), which is protected by s. 3 of the Charter.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/39866020

In these 32 ridings the PC candidate won thanks to vote splitting. Results are as of this morning and may have changed slightly.

Thanks to all spoiler candidates listed below /s

26 spoiler candidates are New Democrats, 11 are Green, and 5 are Liberal. Only one NDP candidate, Natasha Doyle-Merrick, had the decency to step down in Eglinton-Lawrence, but that election was still spoiled by Green candidate Leah Tysoe 😡

First past the post 👎👎👎

York South-Weston: election spoiled by Faisal Hassan (NDP); Daniel Di Giorgio (Liberal) would have won by 7957 votes (25%)

Hamilton Mountain: election spoiled by Kojo Damptey (NDP); Dawn Danko (Liberal) would have won by 8021 votes (21%)

Peterborough-Kawartha: election spoiled by Jen Deck (NDP); Adam Hopkins (Liberal) would have won by 7232 votes (13%)

Sault Ste. Marie: election spoiled by Gurwinder Dusanjh (Liberal); Lisa Vezeau-Allen (NDP) would have won by 2920 votes (10%)

Burlington: election spoiled by Megan Beauchemin (NDP); Andrea Grebenc (Liberal) would have won by 4447 votes (8%)

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek: election spoiled by Zaigham Butt (NDP); Heino Doessing (Liberal) would have won by 2784 votes (7%)

Kitchener South-Hespeler: election spoiled by Jeff Donkersgoed (NDP) and Jessica Riley (Green); Ismail Mohamed (Liberal) would have won by 2653 votes (7%)

Scarborough Centre: election spoiled by Sonali Chakraborti (NDP); Mazhar Shafiq (Liberal) would have won by 2104 votes (7%)

Kitchener-Conestoga: election spoiled by Jodi Szimanski (NDP); Joe Gowing (Liberal) would have won by 2636 votes (6%)

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound: election spoiled by Joel Loughead (Green) and James Harris (NDP); Selwyn Hicks (Liberal) would have won by 2591 votes (6%)

Wellington-Halton Hills: election spoiled by Bronwynne Wilton (Green) and Simone Kent (NDP); Alex Hilson (Liberal) would have won by 3061 votes (6%)

Bay of Quinte: election spoiled by Amanda Robertson (NDP); David O'Neil (Liberal) would have won by 2629 votes (6%)

Mississauga-Erin Mills: election spoiled by Mubashir Rizvi (NDP); Qasir Dar (Liberal) would have won by 2067 votes (6%)

Thunder Bay-Atikokan: election spoiled by Stephen Margarit (Liberal); Judith Monteith-Farrell (NDP) would have won by 1436 votes (5%)

Willowdale: election spoiled by Boris Ivanov (NDP); Paul Saguil (Liberal) would have won by 1192 votes (4%)

Eglinton-Lawrence: election spoiled by Leah Tysoe (Green); Vince Gasparro (Liberal) would have won by 1223 votes (3%)

Milton: election spoiled by Katherine Cirlincione (NDP) and Susan Doyle (Green); Kristina Tesser Derksen (Liberal) would have won by 993 votes (2%)

Cambridge: election spoiled by Marjorie Knight (NDP); Rob Deutschmann (Liberal) would have won by 999 votes (2%)

Whitby: election spoiled by Jamie Nye (NDP) and Steven Toman (Green); Roger Gordon (Liberal) would have won by 1130 votes (2%)

Mississauga East-Cooksville: election spoiled by Alex Venuto (NDP); Bonnie Crombie (Liberal) would have won by 649 votes (2%)

Perth-Wellington: election spoiled by Jason Davis (NDP) and Ian Morton (Green); Ashley Fox (Liberal) would have won by 674 votes (2%)

Pickering-Uxbridge: election spoiled by Khalid Ahmed (NDP) and Mini Batra (Green); Ibrahim Daniyal (Liberal) would have won by 692 votes (2%)

Brantford-Brant: election spoiled by Ron Fox (Liberal) and Karleigh Csordas (Green); Harvey Bischof (NDP) would have won by 764 votes (1%)

Parry Sound-Muskoka: election spoiled by David Innes (Liberal); Matt Richter (Green) would have won by 451 votes (1%)

Mississauga-Lakeshore: election spoiled by Spencer Ki (NDP); Elizabeth Mendes (Liberal) would have won by 350 votes (1%)

Newmarket-Aurora: election spoiled by Denis Heng (NDP); Chris Ballard (Liberal) would have won by 329 votes (1%)

Mississauga Centre: election spoiled by Waseem Ahmed (NDP); Sumira Malik (Liberal) would have won by 216 votes (1%)

Etobicoke Centre: election spoiled by Giulia Volpe (NDP) and Brian Morris (Green); John Campbell (Liberal) would have won by 258 votes (1%)

Mississauga-Streetsville: election spoiled by Shoaib Khawar (NDP); Jill Promoli (Liberal) would have won by 183 votes

Scarborough-Rouge Park: election spoiled by Hibah Sidat (NDP) and Victoria Jewt (Green); Morris Beckford (Liberal) would have won by 115 votes

Algoma-Manitoulin: election spoiled by Reg Niganobe (Liberal); David Timeriski (NDP) would have won by 94 votes

Oakville: election spoiled by Diane Downey (NDP); Alison Gohel (Liberal) would have won by 2 votes