Your question presumes this is a bubble that will pop (which I agree with), so valuation is overinflated by hype and...let's say clever accounting.
For that to extend another 10 years would mean keeping the hype train running. "GPT 12 is the one that will have AGI!"
I imagine there would also have to be several Good Excuses™ along the way. "Data center constructors are taking too long." "The local community won't give us their water supply."
I don't think there's enough wealth in private equity to continue this level of spending for 10 years, so we'd see tax dollars going into these AI companies.
That somehow continuing for 10 years and then we realize these things don't generate profit would be bad. Deflation, retirement accounts wiped out, mass unemployment, people miffed that all the tax they paid into AI is gone doing a mutiny.
Your question presumes this is a bubble that will pop (which I agree with), so valuation is overinflated by hype and...let's say clever accounting.
For that to extend another 10 years would mean keeping the hype train running. "GPT 12 is the one that will have AGI!" I imagine there would also have to be several Good Excuses™ along the way. "Data center constructors are taking too long." "The local community won't give us their water supply."
I don't think there's enough wealth in private equity to continue this level of spending for 10 years, so we'd see tax dollars going into these AI companies.
That somehow continuing for 10 years and then we realize these things don't generate profit would be bad. Deflation, retirement accounts wiped out, mass unemployment, people miffed that all the tax they paid into AI is gone doing a mutiny.