Aceticon

joined 11 months ago
[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 27 minutes ago* (last edited 26 minutes ago)

Well, as I explained for me it has been pretty good at just passivelly avoiding the consequences of nation-sized bullshit like Brexit without me doing anything at all.

At the risk of repeating myself, my whole point is that it's good as a passive investment, not that it can't easilly be beaten by active trade strategies by somebody with good market knowledge (who is entering and exiting positions and can spot those "undervalued equities")

Hence my expectation that for the ignorant investor or those who can't be arsed to follow the markets, it's probably a suitable passive zero-knowledge-needed way to bypass the consequences of whatever shit the US seems to be diving into as well as on a grander scale the transition from America as the top power to China as the top power, all things with a scope of at least one or two decades.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 45 minutes ago* (last edited 37 minutes ago) (2 children)

Keep in my that my whole point is that Gold is good at facing the biggest Social and Economic upheaval of all (the once in a century kind of event), not that people should be going into it during the good times with no clouds in the sky and with a time horizont of a few years.

Putting money in an appreciating savings account is a great way to earn passive income.

I guess you haven't seen the interest rates on those since 2008. That advice is almost 2 decades out of date. Also they're tightly couple to USD.

But gold did not outperform the S&P 500 until this last year, and even then only barely.

Absolutelly, stocks (as an asset, rather than any specific individual stocks) perform better outside major economic upheavals. Since we seem well on track for one, this isn't exactly a good time for going into Stocks IMHO so I didn't advise a nice index tracker investment or similar - when an entire economy goes down the drain, those go too.

As for that statistic you quoted, keep in mind that the S&P 500's historical performance doesn't include stocks which were taken out of the index, so it's not a real image of the market but rather distorted on the upside since all the "bad" stock get removed from the index, something which matters in a long term comparison, so over the long term it's less clear which asset performs best.

Theoretically a properly diversified stock portfolio should outperform Gold over the long term, but there is some amount of management needed (anybody who had GE in their portfolio going into the 90s would've wanted to offload some of it in the 00s) and stocks are often a lot more tightly couple to the currency and Economy of the country they're listed in (unless we're talking about companies which make all their money abroad and just happen to be listed in a major exchange in a different country).

Gold just works it's "magic" - literally of requiring nothing and doing nothing and still somehow holding value - even if burried in one's backyard.

Commodities are a highly speculative and historically underperforming asset class

Well, that's the thing, Gold doesn't tend to perform as commodity because it has very little in the way of industrial uses.

It's mainly an historical form of currency, which is why its volatility tends to be in between currencies and major stock market indexes.

If you look at Silver - which is much more sought for its industrial uses - it's a totally different story.

[Since the question was about how to protect oneself of the upheavals in the US]

The answer there tends to be utilities and treasuries.

Those things are tightly coupled to the value of the a country's currency and economy. If the objective is to protect oneself from upheavals in those, those two investments aren't at all effective.

I'll give you an example of my own: my savings were originally in British Pounds. I moved most of them to Gold in the aftermath of the 2008 Crash. Years later, there was the Leave Referendum in Britain and the British Pound tanked almost 20% in value when the results came out. The impact on my savings: Gold went up in British Pounds as much as the British Pound tanked - Gold didn't became any more appealing in Britain, it just held its value as all things Britain and British became less valuable for the rest of the World. Similarly I did not feel any of the subsequent slow devaluation of the GBP.

Had I invested in Gilts (British Treasuries) or British Utilities, I would've been fully hit by the loss of value of the British Pound versus other currencies.

Mind you, some of my savings back then were in Euros and they had almost the same behaviour versus the British Pound, though the Euro was also dragged a little down by the Leave Referedum result versus Gold and the Dollar.

The point being that to protect one's US Dollar savings right now one should probably exit the Dollar and assets denominated in Dollars, for different currencies, and Gold just happens to be currency-like (a traditional currency even and still held by Central banks as reserves) whilst not really tightly coupled to the politics or Economics of any one country.

Just switching savings to a different currency or assets denominated in other currencies (say, ETFs on major stock indices in markets outside one's home market) would probably do most of the same, though if a big country like the US really goes down the shithole, other economies will also be dragged down at least a bit, and of course any currency or assets denominated in that currency you hold are at the mercy of governmental mismanagement in that country.

Gold, meanwhile, just sits there and does nothing being controller by nobody.

It's the ultimate passive isolationist investment, IMHO, and as I said way back in my first post, having been hit directly by the last to biggest economic crashes plus Brexit, I'm biased towards passive isolationist long term holding of value.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (1 children)

Yeah, I just wanted to point out that by the very "logic" of that Propaganda, Israel is way more murderous towards gay Palestinians than Hamas.

It's a propaganda line that falls flat in the face of even the simplest logical analysis.

One has to actually be a total idiot to believe that Israel is nicer to gay Palestinians than Hamas or think that everybody else are total idiots who will believe such nonsense.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (3 children)

Clearly Israel only ever used special bombs, rockets, artilery shells and bullets which, when they detected a gay person, would change trajectory to avoid harming that person.

Believing that is the only way to possibly believe that Israel wasn't harming gay people when arbitrarily bombing Gaza and even targetting refugee camps.

Ditto for "opposition people" or whatever other subset of the Palestinian population you can think of: Israel was literally targetting refugee camps and appartment buildings thus killing all kinds of people without exception.

Compared to what Israel did to Palestinian opposition and gay people, what even the most extremist of Hamas did to them is nothing.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (4 children)

I left the industry almost a decade ago and was never a business guy: I just made software for the business (specifically Frontoffice development).

I literally put my savings in Gold and pretty much didn't touch it for over a decade.

Amongst other things that position saved me from the hit on the British Pound after the Leave vote (and decay since) as the savings that went into it were originally in Pounds.

I wouldn't call it an "investment strategy", more of a "safe long-term parking strategy".

Since the question was about how to protect oneself of the upheavals in the US, its system and its Economy, I pitched my "safe parking" strategy as a possible answer that's very passive (certainly the way I did it).

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

Yeah, Gold doesn't go up, rather it's currencies that go down in value so you need more tokens of a currency to buy the same amount of Gold.

It's mainly a protection against large economic upheaval, which is why I called it a "savings protection strategy". Gold bought at the 1980 peak (the worst possible point since the end of the Gold Standard) is right now worth 8x more nominally in USD, though only about 2x if you discount inflation (as 1$ from 1980 is $3.93 in today's money).

I suspect that what you thing is "long term" is not the same as what I think as "long term".

More broadly, Gold's long term ROI depends on which currency you're comparing it with - it tends to be amazing in currencies like the Rupee because India's policies are shit and the currency devaluates a lot, less so in currencies like the US Dollar or the Deutsche Mark/Euro. This is why it tends to be a traditional strategy in poorer countries which traditionally had more unstable economies, like India and China.

I myself bough gold near the local maximum in 2012 only to see its value stagnate for almost a decade (see graphic), so I just sat on it and now it's worth almost 4.5x as much in nominal terms in the currency I bought it with (British Pounds) because, IMHO, the structural problems of the Economy and Financial system that led to the 2008 Crash were never actually solved by Central Banks and Governments in the West, plus there are a whole lot of related Social and Societal problems making the societies themselves less stable (which is why, Britain had Brexit and the US has Trump).

Gold is a punt on the instability of the current Economic and Financial structures in the West and on the ineptitude and even corruption of its politicians, as well as the expected upheavals from the transition from the Era Of America to the Era Of China, and it's one I'm doing with an horizon of decades.

It can easilly be beaten by active trading strategies, but so far for me has worked fine as just a way to park my savings, kinda like in the old days - from the 40s to to maybe the 80s - buying stocks from large well established companies (say, GE) and getting a stead income from it in the form of dividends was a good way to park savings.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago) (14 children)

Personally I went into Gold for long term ROI (though that's pretty much a bet on in the long term there being crisis with the currencies themselves) since even ETFs and other spread investment stock strategies are still affected by Market manias and their aftermaths which can be triggered by HFTs (which at times create positive-feedback loops that turn into market runs).

That said, I was in the Industries that got hit hardest in the latest 2 major crashes (Tech in 2000, Finance in 2008) - to the point of being with Lehman Brothers in 2008 when they went bankrupt - as well as in Britain when they voted to Brexit (which tanked the pound, something which, by the way, this strategy protected me against), plus being in the Finance Industry is a bit like working in a sausage-making factory (once you see how sausages are made, you never want to eat one again) so I have a good excuse for having a "trust nothing" ultra-conservative savings protection strategy 🤪

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

Makes sense.

I left the Finance Industry at about the time when ML in machine trading was just starting to be thought about and never got involved in it (or even Machine Trading) so I wasn't sure it was happening, but knowing what I know of the industry it makes total sense that they would at least try it out since they have tons of in-house developers and can afford to pay a lot for domain-relavant expertise.

PS: Also for example things like Neural Networks have been in used since the 90s in other domains and Finance seems to take around a decade or decade and a half to catch up to Tech in terms of Software.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

Yeah, thanks for pointing that out.

I kind approached it in another post I made here about this when I mentioned that "all the human perceived patterns have already been spotted and arbitraged away" as part of explaining why NNs would end up with convoluted opaque strategies, but only thought about "and existing NNs operating on the Market probably do the same for NN-level strategies" without actually writing it.

By the way, my post isn't meant to support people making NNs to trade, it's just a bit of blue sky thinking from somebody with some expertise in both worlds and barely begins to dig into the problems of it, thus not covering things - such as you pointed out - like how safe and reliable market strategies (human-powered or NN-powered) sooner or later get arbitraged away.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Fuck, maybe they went down in quality again 😬

In my own experience, the original QCs were great tech for the time, the QC 2.5 (or maybe I had a QC 2?) had issues and lasted much less and then the QC 3.5 were again great (the battery lasts way longer, build quality is nice and the user interface is decent with no such problems as your reported "easy to switch off" button).

Also I never used the manufacturer's app, and it's not really needed even with with the wireless 3.5 model (I don't even know if there's a mfg app for those), certainly not with the previous ones which are wired.

(As a general rule I avoid mfg apps since they're almost always overbloated shit and instead always chose devices which do not require an app).

The QC 3.5 was launched almost a decade ago, so plenty of time for later models to have been enshittified.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Institutional Investors (such as Pension Funds) and Retail are the ones getting properly fleeced in present day markets.

Retail might have started to get wise on it (frankly I don't know for sure if that's the case, as Retail tend to be either naive amateurs or deluded fools, so I'm just trusting what you said on this), but when it comes to Pension Funds people only figure out they've been fucked decades later when they try and cash their pensions and it's a lot more difficult to tease away how it happened when all the money is pretty much in an investment black-box than it is from watching a handful of stocks and ETFs one has invested directly in.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 11 points 1 day ago* (last edited 23 hours ago) (23 children)

You don’t need an advanced AI for this. You just need to be able to see orders and make trades faster than anyone else in the market.

Which they do by literally having their server machines physically in the same building as the Exchanges.

The system is rigged and has been rigged like this (not counting all the other ways it's rigged, such as the tons of insider trading) for over 2 decades.

PS: The book "Flash Boys" is a great read about HFT.

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