this post was submitted on 30 Mar 2025
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German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.

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[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 143 points 4 days ago (9 children)

If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone's suddenly saying "we have to go to war over THAT?" and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that's your cue that phase 1 is complete.

[–] BastingChemina@slrpnk.net 96 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (1 children)

This is specifically why France developed their nuclear arsenal under De Gaulle.

De Gaulle believed that the Americans could not be trusted to defend Europe, he was afraid that if the Russians would attack Europe with nuclear weapons the US would not defend us.

[–] Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works 53 points 4 days ago

And oh how right he was.

[–] torrentialgrain@lemm.ee 37 points 4 days ago (2 children)

America is already out of the question and I think most politicians in Europe are finally seeing that. But the problem runs much deeper still. With the US out of the picture, will Madrid declare war on Russia if they send little green men to a border village in Latvia?

[–] jenesaisquoi@feddit.org 31 points 4 days ago (3 children)

America is doing just fine, it's just the USA portion of it that is troubled

[–] whostosay@lemmy.world 12 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

Lol I live here and I gotta say, Id sign off on us being renamed to The States of America, we are the most not united thing to ever exist. We are being held together by godamn silly string and hate porn.

[–] A_norny_mousse@feddit.org 11 points 4 days ago

"50 raccoons in a trenchcoat pretending to be a country"

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[–] noughtnaut@lemmy.world 7 points 4 days ago

I m delighted by your comment.

But also, isn't the USA portion one of the only two countries over there that are (currently) a member of NATO?

Looks at cartels integrating into Mexican government, giant prisons, Guantanamo Bay, everything about Argentina and Venezuela... yep doing just great. At least they got that fucker Bolsonaro out in Brasil.

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[–] SunshineJogger@feddit.org 13 points 4 days ago (3 children)

I really hope our politicians are not THAT dumb..... Hope is what we have

[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 12 points 4 days ago

Stupid or not, that's the playbook to watch for. Don't give Russia an inch on article 5, or they'll use it to undermine the whole alliance.

[–] endeavor@sopuli.xyz 7 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Instead of hanging trump for treason of jan 6, you elected him into office after he got charged with a felony AND legal system agreed president can do whatever illegal shit they want up to and beyond dictatorship. Yeah, they are that fucking dumb.

[–] SunshineJogger@feddit.org 6 points 4 days ago

Who exactly are you talking to?

I'm German so how did I elect that orange idiot exactly?

Yes. They are that dumb. Every day there’s some fresh stupidity they come up with. Seriously, that moron is talking about invading Canada and seizing Greenland and there’s no massive outcry in D.C. to impeach or even remove him for such absurd goals?

YES. They ARE that stupid.

[–] riodoro1@lemmy.world 7 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (2 children)

America is going to be balls deep in greenland and europe will not go to war over THAT.

[–] Regdok@lemmy.world 6 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (7 children)

europe will not go to war over THAT.

Yep. Here's a fun possible timeline:

  • US takes over greenland. Europe won't respond militarily, but will cut off most ties to 'murika, and the US government will be like "why would europe be so mean to us, we were only trying to keep them safe from Russia and China?!".

  • Europe won't pivot too hard to China/India, but they'll become preferred trading-partners. EU will become the bastion of actual Democracy.

  • China will take that whole debacle as a green light to take Taiwan, or just re-taking manchuria (and keep taking bites out of Russia until they have reached the arctic). I honestly don't think they'll waste energy on Taiwan. Their military build-up and posturing towards Taiwan is probably just a ruse to lull Russia into a false sense of security.

  • Russia will throw a hissyfit (threaten nukes, fail to deliver, and get fucked on the ground/air/sea). The US will try to come to their aid under the guise of stopping the "yellow threat" or whatever. That'll eventually fizzle out as the US devolves into a civil war (that will hopefully be over quickly, but will probably make the US truly isolationist for at least 50 years). Europeans might lament the aggression of China in public, but will privately go "fuck yeah get 'em".

  • The Russian federation will collapse and splinter, and the rest of the 21st century will be a mess of global instability and the odd rogue van-borne nuke going off here and there, because swamp-troglodytes infested with a mongol khanate mindset (muscovy) should never have had nukes in the first place.

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[–] Akasazh@feddit.nl 5 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Which is ironic, because the only time article 5 was invited was by the Americans, after 9/11.

[–] lilsolar@sh.itjust.works 4 points 4 days ago

Which was so funny cuz they probably went "you... want us to join u in bombing those goat herders?? They don't even have an air force. Uhh okay..."

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[–] richardisaguy@lemmy.world 69 points 4 days ago (11 children)

They barely could handle a war with small Ukraine, a full scale war with NATO is a no-go; and I'm quite certain Putin won't live that long

[–] jaybone@lemmy.zip 40 points 4 days ago (19 children)

But with Trump on his side, he might make some progress.

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[–] lepinkainen@lemmy.world 17 points 4 days ago

They’ll make it ✨ inconvenient✨ for people.

Sabotaging water sources (already practiced this in Finland), power stations (happened in Sweden), cutting undersea cables.

Way too many people are willing to let other people die rather than be inconvenienced.

[–] Halcyon@discuss.tchncs.de 11 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.

Putin has no other choice: the entire Russian economy is dependent on war and armaments and would collapse if peace were concluded. Putin could no longer control his country without an external enemy.

Hence his narrative of the "Nazis" who must be fought in Ukraine (and soon on other borders (see Suwalki Gap)). This narrative of the Nazis ties in with the russian history of the Great Patriotic War, and this resonates with the Russian population. Putin is building a sequel to WWII, with renewed external threats, and the people are receptive to that.

Therefore, Putin is not at all interested in a peace treaty. And the conflict with NATO countries has already begun: the severed power cables and data cables in the Baltic Sea and the attacks on our information systems should have been regarded as acts of war from their beginning. The threat is there NOW. And Europe and NATO must build up strength.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 4 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago)

Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.

Barring help from the US, I would be shocked if they don't have hyperinflation within 15 months. Maybe they can keep going through that, or maybe not.

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[–] CTDummy@lemm.ee 45 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Checks out. Got to capitalise on having his asset installed in the highest office of the US before things risk stabilising.

[–] toy_boat_toy_boat@lemmy.world 5 points 4 days ago (1 children)

i mean, don't we all just assume this now?

i don't mean to make light of the news, but it's clear as day: america isn't america any more.

[–] DonAntonioMagino@feddit.nl 6 points 4 days ago (2 children)

America has always been an aggressive state - the only thing that has changed are the targets. But this is perfectly „American”.

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[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 35 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (9 children)

Not surprised. The level of European alarm about the Russian threat being real has been greater than what could have been sustained without there being secret direct evidence.

Here's hoping when he does that and immediately starts to lose, he doesn't decide to end the world.

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[–] NigelFrobisher@aussie.zone 12 points 2 days ago (5 children)

Wouldn’t Russia have to suddenly produce a lot more young men who are still alive to invade any more countries?

[–] Kolanaki@pawb.social 4 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

Men who are still alive

Oh no... Putin found Dunharrow. Being alive isn't needed.

collapsed inline media

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[–] cyrano@lemmy.dbzer0.com 11 points 4 days ago (2 children)

What is the size of the army in men/woman for Russia? Given the last 3 years, their demographic should be impacted overall, isn’t it?

[–] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 30 points 4 days ago (1 children)

People who follow this subject have been talking about it as a crisis before the invasion even began. Now it's being described as "demographic collapse". They have remarkably low birth rates, an ageing population, xenophobia issues, and few friendly nations from which to borrow workers. I saw one headline that they've begun trying to bribe young ladies to have children. I believe I've seen Putin on record saying he sees demographics as one of his biggest issues, but his policies belie a more cynical stance. It is likely that Russia will continue to decline throughout the century, and in geopolitical terms they are positioned to eventually become a client state of some sort, likelier than not beholden to China.

[–] wtckt@lemm.ee 5 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Maybe they'll find a way to rebound. Banning contraception, banning abortions getting rid of women rights plus no other way to survive in old age apart from having many children. Seems like the US is going that way.

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[–] torrentialgrain@lemm.ee 8 points 4 days ago

It is definitely impacted but you also need to consider how indoctrinated and thoroughly militarized the younger generations are at this point. Russia might not have good birth rates, but their children are forced to learn marching in formation early on (I think it was at kindergarten level) and practice with wooden rifle mockups.

[–] daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

I hope Putin dies before that. And in such a personal regime his dead and the consequent fight for power could lead to big changes in Russia.

So let's hope Zelensky was right, and it's sooner than later.

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[–] zaxvenz@lemm.ee 8 points 4 days ago

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/europa-krieg-szenarien-bnd-bundeswehr-li.3227229

translation

Germany's supreme soldier is convinced that Russia is preparing for a great war. Even after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, Germany has no time “to take a deep breath”, says the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer. Russia continues to upgrade and has doubled the number of soldiers compared to pre-war times. The Russian military structure is clearly against the West. Therefore, an end to the war on Ukraine will not lead to “we have peace again on the European continent,” he said in the talk show “Maischberger” recently.

This coincides with the assessment of Jörg Schmitt, the deputy head of the investigative department of the Süddeutsche Zeitung. Together with colleagues from WDR and NDR, he was able to evaluate the situation analyses of the BND and the Bundeswehr. By the end of the decade, Russia could create the conditions for a large-scale conventional war against NATO, regardless of the war in Ukraine.

According to these sources, Moscow could try to test the Nato with various scenarios, says Schmitt. For example, by provocations in the Baltic region or in the Arctic. Vladimir Putin is concerned with exploring the US's responsiveness and assistanceUSA.

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