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So, in 2024 and 2025, humans will spend something like 600 billion of LLMs. That's about as much money as the entire Apollo program plus 2 entire International Space Stations for 40 years plus 5 copies of the longest bridge in the world, and then you'll have money left to end world hunger for a year.
But instead, we have funny pictures, hallucinations and a semi-ok-ish summary machine that only rarely inserts random phrases. With possibly the worst RoI since Enron
Well tough guy if you know of a better way to make caricatures of comically obese nerds farting a rap song, I'm all ears.
What is your basis for this $600 billion figure, even $600 billion over two years is far more than all of these companies are spending.
The estimates I've aware of $.01 - $.10 per query. Google processes about 10 trillion queries a year at an estimate of $.001. There is no LLM processing anything close to that volume and that's the only way to get to $600 billion.
$60 billion sounds far more reasonable give the number of LLM queries that has been published against the published costs. Thats a big enough number, no need to juice it.
Thank you for realizing what most AI fans fails to realize!
60 billion is a pretty reasonable ballpark for what AI companies are making. It's closer to 50b annualized (so 35b for real) in 2025 , but same ballpark. What they're actually SPENDING is an entirely different number. The 600 billion is a quick-and-dirty extrapolation from this sum of capital expenditure by the 5 biggest AI companies. Note that OpenAI direct spending isn't in there, because they're not reporting it, but OpenAI is mostly Microsoft.
Some adding up from the WSJ top-4 here for 2024: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/tech-giants-double-down-on-their-massive-ai-spending-b3040b33
130 billion from microsoft: https://www.cfodive.com/news/microsoft-capex-grow-slower-rate-cfo-ai/746947/
75 billion from alphabet here: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/04/alphabet-expects-to-invest-about-75-billion-in-capex-in-2025.html
72 billion from meta here: https://fortune.com/article/meta-q1-earnings-revenue-profit-beat-ai-capex-raise
11 b from tesla: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-expects-capital-expenditure-exceed-11-bln-2026-2027-2025-01-30
And the same from apple: https://finbox.com/NASDAQGS:AAPL/explorer/capex/
That brings us to a quick 600b in 2 years in expenses, which are climbing, and some 50b in income, with absolutely zero profit. And that's a problem, because all that capex is not infrastructure, it's mostly consumable GPUs that will be worn out in a few years and insane salaries.
Seems reasonable. If the price I have to pay is to step over my fellow citizens who happen to be experiencing an involuntary outdoor lifestyle, that's fine.
Training is the expensive part. There are also hordes of developers either developing the LLMs themselves or something to work with an LLM, and theyre often quite well-paid.
I don't trust a random unsourced figure either but queries likely aren't even half the total cost.
It's gonna be worth it bro. We're not going to create UBI or use it to solve any issues but it's going to draw so much realistic slop and sell so many tokens. Pleeeeease, we won't ever need to hire a degreed worker again
There are now studies that say that prolonged use of AI tools, impacts your cognition & other cognitive deterioration.
This dude has been smoking sawdust-laced-pot with his GenAI code for decades. Imagine how gooey his brain must've become by now. No wonder he can no longer grasp the concept of zeros after numbers.
Did you ever think about that? No, you only think about yourself.
He's always saying he's going to invent AI that's going to endanger all of humanity. I say we get a grand jury to indict him on 8 billion counts of criminal reckless endangerment. If he later claims he's confident he can keep super intelligent AI chained up, instead indict him on charges of conspiracy to commit slavery.
Trust me bro it's for the good of humanity
Oh, and if that argument doesn't work: if we don't do it, CHINA will do it and do nefarious Chinese things with it, because they hate America.
OpenAI reminds me of Star Citizen. Promises and begging for money.
"And then computers will be like in sci-fi movies, and can talk, have a personality, even crack jokes."
Bro your collar
bruv