Canada

Polls tend to revert to the mean. This isn't surprising, a contraction for the Liberals was always inevitable at some point. With the lead they've built up their odds look good to excellent, but it's definitely important to understand that by election day it's going to be much more up in the air than it is now.

As always, nothing matters if people don't get out and vote.

People start paying attention when an election is called. Polls before that often aren't representative of their opinions. With that said, I think the current political context, with Trump, the LPC leadership election, the PM change, people have been paying more attention than usual so I think we won't see large swings. But some are definitely plugging in now. The undecided number is just 6% today. In mid-February it was 11%.

So yeah some number of people have begun absorbing the (mis) informational firehose.

Different day, different sample. I wouldn't read too much into it unless it becomes a trend.

Carney declined to do a common/popular debate in Quebec.

It doesn't look that different to me, really.

My guess is the "moderating" force of an official election season kickoff bringing a few more apolitical folk into the conversation. It's probably too early to read anything into it.

I kinda hate they don't put error bars on the chart, it's statistical noise that's likely all within the MoE.

Like in statistical process stuff, you can't say there's a trend from a singular data point, western electric rules for example, if you saw multiple consecutive data points and/or large swings maybe you could conclude a trend, but as it stands yeah nah no change.