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| Party | Seats | Change | Percentage | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 190 | +37 | 44.2% | 88.1% | 11.6% |
| Conservative | 120 | -1 | 38.5% | 0.2% | 4.8% |
| Bloc | 26 | -7 | 6.2% | N/A | N/A |
| New Democrat | 6 | -19 | 6.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | -1 | 1.5% | N/A | N/A |
| People's | 0 | N/A | 2.5% | N/A | N/A |
Source: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dashboard/canada#voter-intention
And I've already seen regressive media spinning it as "Carney too chicken to participate in debates," leaving out any context like this one being in addition to the main ones and being a pay-to-play event.
I mean, I'm probably voting Liberal (the NDP have had a strong showing in my riding in the past, so I'm not entirely decided), but I kind of believe this.
Carney is obviously the least comfortable out of the main candidates in speaking in French. I don't believe the cost is a real factor. Maybe "afraid" isn't the right word, but it does seem to be strategic in a way that avoids potential negative exposure for him. I have mixed feelings about it.