"Because that would be totally devastating to our plans for Taiwan."
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this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2025
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China's foreign minister tells EU that Beijing cannot afford Russia to lose in Ukraine, media reports
(kyivindependent.com)
They don't have those plans. That's insinuated to distract from what the minister actually said and implied.
I have poined this out in the other post: https://feddit.org/post/15221478
This article is slightly misleading if compared with the SCMP article which has big implications on understanding the global power dynamics. Draw your own conclusions.
SCMP:
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing does not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.
vs
As the war in Ukraine drags on, Wang’s reported comments suggest that Russia’s war in Ukraine may serve China’s strategic needs as focus is deviated away from Beijing’s mounting preparation to launch its own possible invasion into Taiwan.
It's subtle, but the attack on Taiwan is an interpretation. The minister means something else.
If the economic development continues, Taiwan will want to join China. Thus the focus of the US is interpreted differently by China, more like the focus Iraq or Afghanistan received.
SCMP:
During a marathon four-hour debate on a wide range of geopolitical and commercial grievances, Wang was said to have given Kallas – the former Estonian prime minister who only late last year took up her role as the bloc’s de facto foreign affairs chief – several “history lessons and lectures”.
Some EU officials felt he was giving her a lesson in realpolitik, part of which focused on Beijing’s belief that Washington will soon turn its full attention eastward, two officials said. One interpretation of Wang’s statement in Brussels is that while China did not ask for the war, its prolongation may suit Beijing’s strategic needs, so long as the US remains engaged in Ukraine.
vs
that they believed Wang was providing Kallas with a lesson in realpolitik during the four-hour encounter.
No mentioning of the “history lessons and lectures”, which is a friendlier way of saying that he has referenced past behavior that suggest that the EU is in the wrong.
There seems to be ignorance about what is going to happen even right at the top of the EU. The Chinese minister is calling bullshit. Yet Kallas must have already known better.
It's actually interesting! It means that there is a way out: If europe accepts to help keep the US out of Beijings business. I don't actually know how that could be done. And the EU doesn't have that kind of coesion.
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That is a startlingly weak position for China to be in.
Not really startling. No big player other than Russia has ever been on China's side RE Taiwan.
I feel like Russian support is pretty much a rounding error when it comes to Chinese power.
It still baffles me how people manage to justify China's position on Russia. Sure it's "geopolitics" but if you take a look at domestic propaganda in China itself it's certainly much more than that.
Check out videos of what Ukrainians deal with while living in China - its down right disgusting how brainwashed Chinese are equating Zelenskyy to the likes of Hitler in Ukrainian's faces and thsse are just normal people in apolitical contexts like nurses in hospitals. It's absolute insanity.
That's just Chinese people in general on any subject. Anyone who's actually been to that country would notice pretty quickly that things are NOT OK. The Chinese population has never not known abuse and it shows.
I lived and worked in China for a year (Shenzhen). There was a palpable sense of brainwashing and/or an overpowering air of unhealthy patriotism there. Which made it stranger for me as I had Chinese friends and coworkers that seemed like decent normal people, we went to bars and drank and joked together. But whenever the topic of China as a country and its policies came up, everyone had a similar change in attitude and unwavering loyalty to the government.
I never felt that I was being targeted specifically, but I also never felt truly comfortable for a number of reasons. I’m glad I got to expand my horizons and experience a bit of what the country/city had to offer, I don’t think I would willingly go to live there again.
Implying that the US could be too focused on Russia right now to help Taiwan defend against a Chinese invasion sounds like wishful thinking considering how little they are doing to help Ukraine.
Well, they need to help Israel fight a multi-front war and commit genocide at the same time. That's more than just walking and chewing gum at the same time.
If this is true, the EU better be figuring out how to change that price calculus for them. Which makes me doubt an open admission actually did happen, since China would understand the possibility for blowback.
I used to joke that China wants to trade Ukraine for Taiwan, now it is very clear: you shut up about helping/recognizing/arming Taiwan and we keep a leash on russia...until next time...
Taiwan for Ukraine would actually be a trade worth considering for Europe. The major problem, besides values like freedom and democracy, international law, is the interruption of supply lines from Taiwan caused by a Chinese takeover.
Exactly, Taiwan made sure it was worth defending, but I fear that this will lose value over time. Besides you never know what stupid shit is going to come out of tramp's brain the day anything escalates.
Trump like the military because he does like everything powerful and strong. I think he truly is opposed to long and costly wars. So far his actions track that pretty well.
Trump is looking for deals to enrich himself or become more famous and powerful.
...so was putin (who is smarter than him), it was supposed to be a 2-week SMO in the Donbas. But the problem with these megalomaniac gamblers is that it is easy for them to miscalculate, because they think war is easy, quick, simple and they think that their opponents are no match.
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Sure they can
True, they can demand Haishenwai and Outer Manchuria all the way to and including lake Baikal to help russia keep what it has stolen from Ukraine. Or else...geh fuck yourselves.
As a side note: there is speculation that China may be approaching a change of leader due to Xi experiencing health issues (not a change of leadership in the wider sense - the collegial system of the CCP is considered to be functioning).
Thus, it may be impossible for the Chinese foreign minister to be fully confident of what China's policy will be in the future.
Obviously, China views it as unacceptable for Russia (its ally and soon enough, practically its vassal) to all-out lose. (The easiest way to not lose, of course, is not starting a war, but that train is long gone and behind the hills.)
Prolonging the war does not eliminate this risk well, however - exhaustion could spread in Russian society and morale could collapse despite the state spewing its propaganda, or the economy could collapse. So, simply propping up Russia by letting them buy the goods they shouldn't be getting is not a very elegant solution. Direct interference on behalf of Russia would lead to open hostility with the EU, which is currently ambivalent about China.
What remains is nudging Russia to negotiate. But Putin is hard-headed and only willing to negotiate Ukraine's surrender, on terms which Ukrainians will laugh out of the door.
As for the US being able to focus on China, well I guess they're a bit concerned about it, but given the mental and organizational capability of the current US leadership, I don't think Chinese analysts are particularly worried.
Chinese foreign policy regarding Russia is unlikely to change under a new leader. Supporting Russia‘s war by continued trade while publicly calling for a diplomatic solution is a very comfortable position. They weaken the West while making Russia more dependent on them. All of that while getting financial advantages from importing cheap energy from Russia and exporting goods.
The posturing regarding Taiwan could change in tone, but fundamentally China‘s goals and interests are unchanged.
Things are going pretty well for China on many levels.
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China has chosen to be the enemy the west and rules based order then.
tramp has chosen to be the enemy of the west and the rules based order, China's just been having a wonderful time flying under the cover of the daily orange meltdown since the clown show started.
PS: they don't even have to do anything, they just have to point at trump and say "democracy, you mean THAT?" And they'll be using it as evidence against the "chaos of democracy" worldwide.
rules based order
The rules based order is allowing genocide to happen in Gaza.
The thread is about Ukraine. I am all for the genocide in Gaza to stop but can you try not to hijack any post about every other conflict?
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I don't see Xilly old bear and Puddin lifting any fingers, either. I guess they do agree on the US on something!
China has acknowledged Palestinians' right to armed resistance and recognizes Palestinian statehood unlike most Western countries. But it is unfortunate that they didn't do more.
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For now. Ideally they lose in a few years once China has a better position
You can count on tramp and his fascist toadies to lose their proxy war with China without a fight by refusing to acknowledge it until no asian ally is willing to resist out of fear of getting betrayed, like the EU and Ukraine.
5 eyes and 14 eyes are both falling apart
Sure you can.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has not managed to broker a promised ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, has long viewed China as the United States' main adversary and is predominantly focused on relations between the two nations.
Heys the only one that can negotiate a peace. On day one!
Wang's reported comments suggest that Russia's war in Ukraine may serve China's strategic needs as focus is deviated away from Beijing's mounting preparation to launch its own eventual invasion into Taiwan.
I doubt anyone has said that so clearly, but if everyone in the west has been thinking that for 3 years, I'm sure the Chinese have too.
Wang hasn't said it. He almost said the opposite. Please check my other comment for details.
Ok, thanks!
World War 3 foreshadowing for the next season of the This Crazy Fucking Timeline show
Well, we are currently teeing it up.
I think we're already in it. A world war, as I understand it, is basically just a situation where a variety of alliances and tensions build up until when a war erupts in one spot it rapidly spreads around to involve a large number of countries world-wide. That seems to be the case already, you can easily build a Pepe Silvia wall-of-crazy showing all the connections between Russia and China and Iran and Syria and Israel and Hungary and Ukraine and Belarus and the United States and Taiwan and on and on. The actual shooting pew pew warfare is still relatively confined (though bear in mind that literally a million Russian casualties have happened over a thousands-of-kilometers-long front line riddled with trenches and minefields, which is pretty significant) but all these countries are throwing their weight in on those fights and it's easy to imagine them branching out quite quickly when conditions change.
There are alliances, but for a world war the major powers should all be directly involved. The biggest global powers are the USA, China, EU, Russia. Only one of them is directly involved in a serious war. In Ukraine the USA and Europe have been avoiding a direct involvement for a decade now.
The recent wars involving Israel only had minor involvement of western powers, mostly missile defense, and protection of shipping lanes. Israel has won decisively against Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria. The Houthis continue to be a nuisance and Hamas is restricted to small attacks. Some kind of ceasefire deal regarding Gaza becomes more likely by the day as both internal and external pressure mount on the Netanyahu government.
Hezbollah is seriously weakened. Lebanon has a new stronger government. Iran will take a decade to rebuild their strength. The Houthis can go back to killing Yemenis. If Hamas can recover is unclear, but it won’t be fast either. Syria is busy with getting their own affairs in order and even signaling possible peace with Israel.
The future for the Middle East looks almost promising I would say. Iran is weakened, cooperation and peace deals increase, several countries are tired of (civil) wars, Islamist Djihadism has lost wars and credibility.
I would bet on Russia trying to conquer Georgia, Armenia, or some other former Soviet country after a ceasefire or peace deal in Ukraine. Gotta keep that war economy going. Even then direct Western or Chinese involvement is unlikely.
Taiwan is a huge problem and a war would have huge global economic consequences. A huge air and naval war is certainly possible there involving China, Russia, and North Korea on one side against USA, NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, and other Asian countries. The ensuing worldwide economic crisis and distraction of major powers could then trigger wars elsewhere.
A possible collapse, civil war, or break up of the USA could triggers lots of local wars where the US used be the dominant power. That includes all of Latin America, the pacific, but pretty much anywhere really.
Africa could also fall into some major wars caused by resource access, climate change, proxy wars, overpopulation, etc. Once industrialization really kicks off in Africa, major wars become more likely and deadly. The Congo and central Africa has lots of unresolved issues dating back to the previous Congo wars.
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You make a good point. I see it as the U.S. being in a Cold War type situation, but as you note, there are already regional conflicts. However, even during the Cold War the U.S. was involved in conflicts in Korea and Vietnam, where it saw itself as trying to stem the growth of Communism being spread by the Soviet Union.
What Confucious say about rainchecks?
I mean, yeah. Russia has been a Chinese vassal state since Covid.
Before they invaded Ukraine the 2nd time they had a fearsome reputation militarily and they had some goodwill in Europe (misplaced, but they were seen as misunderstood, not fascists), they had surplus resources to help their allies in Syria, Iran, etc and their weapons sold all over the world, so they were not a vassal state of China, they had lots of options economically, politically, militarily and were free to move about money/spies/etc. Now they have much less options...but maybe tramp will give them some in exchange for nothing...
any sociological doctorates in here? What does it say about the state of the ruZZian war, when chinas FM weighs in on their vision for the war?
Russia is hugely dependent on trade with China to continue the war effort. They have replaced western imports with Chinese goods, including parts for weapons. North Korea would not sell arms and send troops to Russia without Chinese approval either. China buys Russian oil and gas as well.
The Russian war effort is going well and looks like it will be sustainable for years while Chinese support continues.
Not just Beijing.
Maybe they'll choose a wiser position, next time. Their finding out stage of the Fuck Around, Find Out cycle does not constitute an emergency or any impetus for action on the part of the West
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