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Russia planning attack on Nato ‘to test article 5’, warns Germany (www.thetimes.com)
submitted 2 days ago by Hotznplotzn@lemmy.sdf.org to c/europe@feddit.org
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The chief of Germany’s foreign intelligence service warned that his agency has “concrete” evidence that Russia is planning an attack on Nato territory.

Bruno Kahl, the outgoing head of Germany’s federal intelligence service (BND), said in a rare interview that Russian leadership no longer believes Nato’s article 5 guarantee of mutual assistance will be honoured — and may seek to test it.

“We are very sure, and we have intelligence evidence to back this up, that [Russia’s full-scale invasion of] Ukraine is only one step on Russia’s path towards the west,” he told a podcast of German outlet Table Briefings.

Kahl qualified that “this doesn’t mean that we expect large tank battalions to roll from the east to the west.”

Kahl said: “We see that Nato is supposed to be tested in its mutual assistance promise. There are people in Moscow who don’t believe that Nato’s article 5 still works.”

[...]

While the war is still confined to Ukrainian territory, the German internal secret service, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), has warned that Moscow is increasingly extending the conflict to western countries through cyberwarfare and espionage.

Russia has in particular taken to deploying so-called low-level agents to commit acts of sabotage, according to the BfV annual report, which was presented in Berlin on Wednesday. They are believed to have been deployed to plant incendiary devices in parcels, which caused a series of fires in European logistics hubs last year.

“We have noticed that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has led to our cyber and espionage defences being increasingly tested,” Sinan Selim, vice-president of the BfV, said.

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[–] barsoap@lemm.ee 2 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

That's what the conventional army is for. With ET.

The nuclear deterrent stops Russia from using nukes, that's all.

[–] Quittenbrot@feddit.org 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Well, giving Russia the impression of being able to have a limited and controllable conflict, as they thought they could have in Ukraine, is precisely what could entice them to start the conflict, as happened in Ukraine.

What stops Russia from waging a conflict is the credibly conveyed risk of uncontrollable escalation. Is this something either Britain or France can currently project with their nukes?

A very nice clip though! With a lot of bitter truths..

[–] barsoap@lemm.ee 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

You don't need nukes to make Russia think thrice, they can be easily hurt a lot in very conventional ways. What the nuklear deterrent is good for is them not defending themselves with nukes. Generally speaking the only thing nukes are good for is to stop others from using nukes.

Also do watch Yes, Minister, and Yes, Prime Minister. Best political TV show ever and not just because it's hilarious. Only show able to put Babylon 5 on second place.

[–] Quittenbrot@feddit.org 1 points 16 hours ago

Agreed. But while an attack on Britain always poses the risk of escalating onto a nuclear level and hence is very 'unattractive', an attack on Estonia could be contained. Say they took Tallinn within 48 hours. Button? I don't think so and nor do they.

I'd argue the deterring effect of nuclear deterrent can only properly unfold if the opposing side has no way of telling its boundaries. Is it London? Berlin? Tallinn? Narva? Only then the risk is too high for an aggressor to actually attack.