this post was submitted on 21 May 2025
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It's already capable of doing a lot, and there is reason to expect it will get better over time. If we stick our fingers in our ears and pretend that's not possible, we will not be prepared.
If you read, it's capable of very little under the surface of what it is.
Show me one that is well studied, like clinical trial levels, then we'll talk.
We're decades away at this point.
My overall point of it's just as meaningless to talk about now as it was in the 90s. Because we can't convince of what a functioning product will be, never mind it's context I'm a greater society. When we have it, we can discuss it then as we have something tangible to discuss. But where we'll be in decades is hard to regulate now.
Alpha Fold. We're not decades away. We're years at worst.
If you assume the unlimited power needed right now to power Aloha fold at scale of all human education.
We have at best proof of concepts that computers can talk. But LLMs don't have any way of actually knowing anything behind them. That's kinda the problem.
And it's not a "we'll figure out the one trick" but more fundamentally how it works doesn't allow for that to happen.