Curious who you think will win in your gut?

I'm feeling it's Carney but I don't feel confident at all. Might be wishful thinking. Polling hasn't been reliable enough for me to be at peace.

to think because of the odiousness of our president, liberals may take it? Do you think that’s likely?

Trump being disgusting seems to have nudged some in favor of Liberals, but it's also not the major reason imho. The Liberal strategy of getting rid of Trudeau and the consumer carbon pricing worked, because Conservatives spent the last 5 years yammering non-stop about these two things as their promise. Conservatives were literally calling it a "carbon tax election". Scrambling to find a new platform, Conservatives started to pivot into generic bullshit like "Canada First", and that's where they ended up likening themselves to Trump even more.

Pretty much the only thing Conservatives have going for them now is chanting that Liberals have been in power for too long and "we need change". But their platform without ax-the-tax and fuck-trudeau was reduced to the same basic shit as ever: tough on crime, cheap gas, and transphobia.