Curious who you think will win in your gut?

I'm feeling it's Carney but I don't feel confident at all. Might be wishful thinking. Polling hasn't been reliable enough for me to be at peace.

to think because of the odiousness of our president, liberals may take it? Do you think that’s likely?

Trump being disgusting seems to have nudged some in favor of Liberals, but it's also not the major reason imho. The Liberal strategy of getting rid of Trudeau and the consumer carbon pricing worked, because Conservatives spent the last 5 years yammering non-stop about these two things as their promise. Conservatives were literally calling it a "carbon tax election". Scrambling to find a new platform, Conservatives started to pivot into generic bullshit like "Canada First", and that's where they ended up likening themselves to Trump even more.

Pretty much the only thing Conservatives have going for them now is chanting that Liberals have been in power for too long and "we need change". But their platform without ax-the-tax and fuck-trudeau was reduced to the same basic shit as ever: tough on crime, cheap gas, and transphobia.

Carney. Liberal Majority.

If enough people saw Trump's rant this morning, Carney and Libs get a majority. If they didn't, it could be tight.

Honestly hard to tell, but I'd say a conservative minority is the most likely outcome.

My riding has voted NDP every time for as long as it has existed, but I expect it to flip conservative because the liberals will split the vote enough thanks to Carney's "popularity" despite their candidate here having zero chance (seriously, PPC got more votes than the liberals did last election).

Edit: Well the liberals won so that's a lot less bad. I was right about my riding though unfortunately. My vote has never counted and this election made sure that streak continued 👍.