this post was submitted on 14 Apr 2025
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I do understand the allure of "we should make things again", and the security implications of maintaining a local manufacturing capacity and workforce - but I think people from advanced economies are incredibly myopic about what it actually looks like to develop that capacity back.
It'll be difficult for the US to compete on price with countries like China, which have a much better developed manufacturing sector and lower wages / cost of living, even with steep tariffs applied to inflate the prices of imported goods.
They'd probably have to subsidise production in the short-term, and invest heavily in capital to automate production to the greatest extent possible so as to avoid needing to ask Americans to accept lower living standards to stand a chance.
I actually think the security guarantee is an illusion. If we are all dependent on one another we’re less likely to go to war. Conversely, If all countries start competing over the same resources the chances of war increase
I meant security less in the armed conflict sense, more in the less vulnerable to disruption sense. It does make sense to retain a food production sector, and a manufacturing sector for important goods like pharmaceuticals - because countries are likely to prioritise themselves in times of scarcity or crisis. I agree that interdependence is good for avoiding conflict.
I think this independence is an illusion in the current globalised environment and it would be very difficult to attain it even for a very large country like the US (and completely out of reach for small countries).
Let’s take the example of food. Does your country depend on imports of fertiliser? What about animal feed (soy beans)? I am guessing the answer to both these questions yes.
The point is, we are in this together. For a small nation this is trivially obvious, but larger nations like to pretend they can do things alone. And then you get people like Trump that play on these sentiments.