The “shadow fleet” used by Russia, Iran and Venezuela to avoid western sanctions and ship cargo to customers including China and India is “exploding” in its scale and scope, and there are concerns that efforts to counter it are drawing closer to dangerous military confrontations.
Complicating the issue is that Russia has begun putting its own flag on some former shadow fleet tankers, in an open challenge to Europe.
The constellation of ageing oil tankers – under opaque ownership and questionable flagging – has become the focus of rising international attention this year. There have been maritime interdictions to enforce sanctions, and the recently announced US blockade of sanctions-busting ships in Venezuela.
Earlier this month US special forces rappelled from helicopters to board the Skipper, a tanker off Venezuela that the US treasury had placed under sanctions in 2022 amid allegations it had been smuggling oil on behalf of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah.
On Saturday US forces apprehended a second merchant vessel carrying oil off the coast of Venezuela in international waters, even though it does not appear to be on the list of vessels under US sanctions.
The US seizures follow incidents this year where Estonia and France interdicted vessels suspected of belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet, and recent attacks by Ukrainian air and sea drones on Russian shadow tankers accused of being involved in sanctions evasion.
The increasingly aggressive efforts to police the shadow fleet and evidence that Russia is willing to use military assets to protect tankers, has led experts to warn of the risk of confrontation.
That was dramatically underlined on Friday when Ukraine announced it had struck a Russian tanker with aerial drones in neutral waters off the coast of Libya, after previous similar attacks in the Black Sea.
A source in the Security Service of Ukraine said it was a “new, unprecedented special operation”, Kyiv’s first attack on a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean, carried out 1,200 miles (2,000km) from Ukraine’s borders.
Ukraine has the right idea on how to deal with the Russian ones: Make them permanently inoperable.
Except what happens if one of those tankers had a Russian flag planted on it, but was headed to Iran?
Does that give Iran and Russia their "excuse" to claim they've been left with no other option than to align against the west in an attack because they're being "bullied?"
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They can bellyache all they want as the nation they invaded fights back. The solution is to stop invading them.
Not disagreeing, but how do you know you're not playing into their hands?
Russian citizens would seem to prefer an end to the war, but the media is controlled by Putin. Often these ultra nationalistic authoritarians are completely reliant on the public buying some kind of victimhood narrative to justify their actions.
It allows them to create the illusion (at least within Russia) that an escalation in war and alliance with Iran is the only rational solution for their own survival.
If Ukraine fighting back against Russia's invasion is enough to convince Russians to continue the war, then it was always going to continue until one country is defeated. Handicapping Ukraine only helps Russia.
Hell, if it isn't obvious that after four years of war Russia is not going to stop, and instead must be stopped, I don't know what to tell you.
I'm not saying Russia doesn't need to be stopped. That's the problem with buying into the reality that an authoritarian offers you. The goal of Putin's psychological manipulation is to make you feel pressured into black and white thinking. In this case, the goal is to make you believe you only have 2 rational choices, even though he's the one who has laid them both out for you.
Putin famously says the "cornered rat will always jump." That may be true about a rat (and makes a lof of sense for Putin), but why allow him to make you think of yourself as the cornered rat?
The EU is not a cornered rat. Ukraine is not a cornered rat. They are sovereign nations made up of millions of autonomous humans, who are being targeted by a very small group of rats trying to pressure them into believing that their only choices are to freeze (do nothing) or to jump (attack).
The reality is, the Trump administration has created the current situation in Venezuela. Oddly, everything Trump has done up to this point, has resulted in only one company (Chevron) being allowed to continue business as normal. Why is that?
Since Chevron is the only company that can legally do business while the U.S. has Venezuela under siege, is Chevron given access to the tankers that would have been going to Russia or Iran before they were intercepted?
Chevron signed a deal with Hungary last week to help diversify their energy imports, with the ultimate goal of helping them be less reliant on Russia. Specifically it would be the first time resources exported from the U.S. would be replacing any of the resources provided by Russia.
Suddenly on Thursday the U.S. company that was supposed to be building the plant that would provide the resources to Chevron, announced they would no longer be moving forward with the export plant they were building in Louisiana.
The next day, Hungary seemed to be getting cold feet regarding their own independence from Russia. Presumably, Chevron is still on the hook to provide the energy resources to Hungary or they have no choice to just default back to dependence on Russia.
Before anyone jumps into WWIII like an obedient cornered rat, why not stop and at least ask some questions first.
Why is nobody demanding the U.S. and Chevron explain if the contract with Hungary will be cancelled, or if they plan to deliver the resources by taking them from somewhere other than the U.S. (like Venezuela or maybe Greenland?)
How do we really know that once the Trump administration allows Chevron to take control of the seized oil tanker, they're not just doing some back door dealings with Russia? If Chevron uses these seized resources it to fulfill their deal with Hungary, is there any chance Russia still receives a cut of the deal, and just continues doing business as usual, but with Chevron as the new middle man?
Most important question, is there any chance Trump could be hoping to take over Greenland, and either wittingly or unwittingly, end up acting as a placeholder or middleman for Russia?
Basically, the T.L.D.R. is that Trump and Chevron need to answer some very basic questions before I believe entering into WWIII is in the interest if anybody who isn't an oligarch.