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Comes out closer to 27%, but the deck is so heavily stacked with Winner-Take-All elections and election manipulation through voter caging and outright fuckery a la The Brooks Brothers Riot that this cohort is heavily over-represented nationwide.
The national punditry has so much invested in the superficial identity politics of a candidate, they can't see whether a given individual is actually likeable. Nobody had Zohran Mamdani as a serious candidate for Mayor this time last year. Nobody had Donald Trump as a serious candidate in 2015. Even Obama's run was largely considered a token bid for VP in late 2007.
Underestimate candidates like AOC and Rashida Tlaib at your own peril, conservatives.
Those 50%, or 27% will NOT vote for a woman, no matter what. Therefore, a women candidate will be trying to be first past the post with only 50%, or 73%, of the vote available to her, at most. It is far too great a handicap to bear, at a time when losing is not an option. Learn to read the room.