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I'm specifically talking about Americans thinking that the rest of the world will get over this. I think that trust has been broken.
Like you talk about broken guard rails. The US has been lecturing the world on how the US system of democracy is the best for decades now. There's always talk about how there's a system of checks and balances, and how US democracy can be messy, but in the end it's a system that works. I don't think anybody believes that anymore. The guard rails were always an illusion, and even if all of Trump's changes were rolled back, the rest of the world would know that the guard rails, and the checks and balances are all just an elaborate delusion.
And I guess I'm specifically reporting on my circle of american's, who are both aware that we've burned a lot of goodwill and trust (though tbh, I'd hoped the trust was lost already after trump 1...).
The checks and balances held for Trump 1 relatively, and held for previous abuses before that (at least, sufficiently that folks would let the US say such things). I don't think it's obvious that they are irrepairable/irreplaceable: we could have a revolution and rebuild from scratch, as an extreme example. It is obvious that systems must change to do so; reorganizing the supreme court, changing campaign finance, etc. If they change, and how much, idk what to expect. But I think ~half the country knows it'll take serious reforms, and it still wont put the US back where it was. Trust != systems.
Yeah, trust has been burned and it's not coming back quickly. Maybe reform the systems and trust will eventually be built back. But, by that time the US won't be a major power anymore, so it won't matter as much.
Major power computations I think are harder. I agree the US is falling, but I don't think I've seen a serious analysis claiming that the US will become merely a power amongst a few dozen others anytime in the next few decades? We're about to become much poorer and less diplomatically influential, but still nukes, still the huge military spending, still capitalists with hands in other economies?