this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2025
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Any peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine will only last if Moscow makes real concessions, including limiting the size of its armed forces and curbing its growing military budget, the EU’s top diplomat has said.

In an interview with the Italian daily Corriere della Sera published on Friday, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, warned that without meaningful concessions from Moscow, Europe risks facing new conflicts elsewhere.

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The problem for peace is Russia,” Kallas said, adding: “Even if Ukraine received security guarantees, without concessions from the Russian side, we would have other wars, perhaps not in Ukraine but elsewhere.”

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Kallas said that Kyiv and its allies “certainly welcome the momentum toward peace that the U.S. administration is showing,” but cautioned that Russia lacks a “genuine will for peace.”

“It [Russia] is constantly bombing Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure,” she told Corriere della Sera, stressing that “first we need to see a ceasefire.”

She said that in order to achieve sustainable peace, it is necessary to ensure that “Russia does not attack again”, adding that this requires clear concessions from Moscow.

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"We need concessions from Russia, whether that means limiting its army or restraining its military budget,” said Kallas, who served as Estonia’s prime minister from 2016 to 2021.

Moscow has significantly increased its military budget in recent years, diverting vast resources toward the defense industry to sustain its war in Ukraine.

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[–] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 7 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

Europe probably has more raw capacity for power in terms of labour and technology but it's much less capable of marshalling it towards a goal. The fact that you have to go through the market economy makes all the resources needed to exercise power more expensive. Russian shells cost 4x less than Europe's. More centrally managed economies tend to outcompete at this. Having to go through the 27 countries democracies to direct it is another challenge. All Russia has to do is get several Orbans in domestic governments to keep the power level low. In effect Europe is less strong than Russia even though it could be much stronger. And this doesn't stop with milirary power. Even simple stuff like tackling internal security from sabotage, economic security etc.

There's also other structural blockers to projecting power, like the external energy dependence. Europe was critically dependdnt on Russian fossil fuels. Now a significant portion has been shifted to the US. As a result, uncle Donnie has a significant say in EU's ability to exercise power over entities he likes.

This is why Kallas'es statements look more like stern finger wagging than anything real to anyone aware of these issues. Or Germany's stern warnings to the Russian ambassador. Kaja gives good strong vibes to the EU citizenry but it's not changing the material reality. Eventually it would stop working. My guess is that's gonna happen quickly once uncle Donnie decides to go through with taking Russia's reserve money under her nose and giving it to his corporations to invest in Russia, like they're planning to.