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Russian spy ship enters British waters and shines lasers at military pilots
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2025
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My very lay-person understanding is that generally there is a level of shit each country accepts, e.g. election meddling, hacking or taking of political prisoners as it is part of the "standard affairs" - and will respond to non-forcefully. (Please don't see me as advocating or trying to downplay these activities, they are abhorrent).
In order to respond with force or war, a lot of prep needs to go in to make sure that the action will be supported by enough allies to both achieve the goal/s and deal with any possible fallout from retaliation.
I believe the EU and its allies sees that a war response to Russian meddling may bring in China more actively into the picture and the US may not come to back them up (unless China decide to re-take Taiwan). OR they see the long-term economic damage to Russia as significant enough to achieve long term regional impact.
Therefore, the EU may not be confident of opening up conflict unless forced to.
IMO Russia's actions in the EU are a clear test of the EU's boundaries and willingness to retaliate.
I feel like if China is gonna get involved it'll be to invade Siberia for the significant amount of oil resource that is available
One theory is putin is desperate to bait a nato attack he can spin as nato entering the ukraine war so he can retreat (or maybe escalate) while saving face.
Im not entirely convinced but its a solid enough theory