this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2025
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[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 8 points 1 day ago (22 children)

The system is rigged and has been rigged like this

It's rigged against day traders. But you can still get by just fine as a value or growth style investor who is seeking long term ROI. You're just a sucker if you think you can outplay the machines minute-by-minute.

PS: The book “Flash Boys” is a great reading about HFT.

Michael Lewis was the GOAT back then. Shame he parlayed his fame into FTX infamy.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (14 children)

Personally I went into Gold for long term ROI (though that's pretty much a bet on in the long term there being crisis with the currencies themselves) since even ETFs and other spread investment stock strategies are still affected by Market manias and their aftermaths which can be triggered by HFTs (which at times create positive-feedback loops that turn into market runs).

That said, I was in the Industries that got hit hardest in the latest 2 major crashes (Tech in 2000, Finance in 2008) - to the point of being with Lehman Brothers in 2008 when they went bankrupt - as well as in Britain when they voted to Brexit (which tanked the pound, something which, by the way, this strategy protected me against), plus being in the Finance Industry is a bit like working in a sausage-making factory (once you see how sausages are made, you never want to eat one again) so I have a good excuse for having a "trust nothing" ultra-conservative savings protection strategy 🤪

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 3 points 1 day ago (11 children)

Personally I went into Gold for long term ROI

:-/

That's certainly a strategy.

That said, I was in the Industries that got hit hardest in the latest 2 major crashes (Tech in 2000, Finance in 2008) - to the point of being with Lehman Brothers in 2008 when they went bankrupt - as well as in Britain when they voted to Brexit (which tanked the pound, something which, by the way, this strategy protected me against), plus being in the Finance Industry is a bit like working in a sausage-making factory (once you see how sausages are made, you never want to eat one again) so I have a good excuse for having a “trust nothing” ultra-conservative savings protection strategy 🤪

I'll say that I was working O&G in 2020 when the spot price of a barrel went negative. My own firm dropped in price from mid double digits to single digits, and I bought every share I could get my hands on, knowing they could liquidate tomorrow for multiple of their market cap.

If you're that much of an insider, I can't imagine why you'd bother being conservative. Seems like you've got a ton of valuable info to trade against.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago) (1 children)

I left the industry almost a decade ago and was never a business guy: I just made software for the business (specifically Frontoffice development).

I literally put my savings in Gold and pretty much didn't touch it for over a decade.

Amongst other things that position saved me from the hit on the British Pound after the Leave vote (and decay since) as the savings that went into it were originally in Pounds.

I wouldn't call it an "investment strategy", more of a "safe long-term parking strategy".

Since the question was about how to protect oneself of the upheavals in the US, its system and its Economy, I pitched my "safe parking" strategy as a possible answer that's very passive (certainly the way I did it).

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 1 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

I literally put my savings in Gold and pretty much didn’t touch it for over a decade.

Putting money in an appreciating savings account is a great way to earn passive income. But gold did not outperform the S&P 500 until this last year, and even then only barely. For a whole host of reasons, commodities are a highly speculative and historically underperforming asset class.

I wouldn’t call it an “investment strategy”, more of a “safe long-term parking strategy”.

I mean, long term savings is long term savings. Unless you're keeping it in straight cash (historically one of the worst moves you can make) you're still making some kind of investment decision.

Since the question was about how to protect oneself of the upheavals in the US

The answer there tends to be utilities and treasuries. Gold, as a commodity safe haven, is still heavily predicated on the easy credit afforded by its buyers. Utilities, by contrast, tend to have inelastic demand and so continue to enjoy high cash flow (and high dividends) as the rest of the industry contracts. And treasuries pay a fixed rate, guaranteeing future returns for the life of the note.

Gold is still speculative relative to the demand for trade on the market. So you can see sudden spikes in price in the time period around a crash. But there's no incentive to hold it long term, as there's no revenue generation behind owning a yellow rock. You'll see high volatility, not a high rate of return, long term.

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago) (1 children)

Keep in my that my whole point is that Gold is good at facing the biggest Social and Economic upheaval of all (the once in a century kind of event), not that people should be going into it during the good times with no clouds in the sky and with a time horizont of a few years.

Putting money in an appreciating savings account is a great way to earn passive income.

I guess you haven't seen the interest rates on those since 2008. That advice is almost 2 decades out of date. Also they're tightly couple to USD.

But gold did not outperform the S&P 500 until this last year, and even then only barely.

Absolutelly, stocks (as an asset, rather than any specific individual stocks) perform better outside major economic upheavals. Since we seem well on track for one, this isn't exactly a good time for going into Stocks IMHO so I didn't advise a nice index tracker investment or similar - when an entire economy goes down the drain, those go too.

As for that statistic you quoted, keep in mind that the S&P 500's historical performance doesn't include stocks which were taken out of the index, so it's not a real image of the market but rather distorted on the upside since all the "bad" stock get removed from the index, something which matters in a long term comparison, so over the long term it's less clear which asset performs best.

Theoretically a properly diversified stock portfolio should outperform Gold over the long term, but there is some amount of management needed (anybody who had GE in their portfolio going into the 90s would've wanted to offload some of it in the 00s) and stocks are often a lot more tightly couple to the currency and Economy of the country they're listed in (unless we're talking about companies which make all their money abroad and just happen to be listed in a major exchange in a different country).

Gold just works it's "magic" - literally of requiring nothing and doing nothing and still somehow holding value - even if burried in one's backyard.

Commodities are a highly speculative and historically underperforming asset class

Well, that's the thing, Gold doesn't tend to perform as commodity because it has very little in the way of industrial uses.

It's mainly an historical form of currency, which is why its volatility tends to be in between currencies and major stock market indexes.

If you look at Silver - which is much more sought for its industrial uses - it's a totally different story.

[Since the question was about how to protect oneself of the upheavals in the US]

The answer there tends to be utilities and treasuries.

Those things are tightly coupled to the value of the a country's currency and economy. If the objective is to protect oneself from upheavals in those, those two investments aren't at all effective.

I'll give you an example of my own: my savings were originally in British Pounds. I moved most of them to Gold in the aftermath of the 2008 Crash. Years later, there was the Leave Referendum in Britain and the British Pound tanked almost 20% in value when the results came out. The impact on my savings: Gold went up in British Pounds as much as the British Pound tanked - Gold didn't became any more appealing in Britain, it just held its value as all things Britain and British became less valuable for the rest of the World. Similarly I did not feel any of the subsequent slow devaluation of the GBP.

Had I invested in Gilts (British Treasuries) or British Utilities, I would've been fully hit by the loss of value of the British Pound versus other currencies.

Mind you, some of my savings back then were in Euros and they had almost the same behaviour versus the British Pound, though the Euro was also dragged a little down by the Leave Referedum result versus Gold and the Dollar.

The point being that to protect one's US Dollar savings right now one should probably exit the Dollar and assets denominated in Dollars, for different currencies, and Gold just happens to be currency-like (a traditional currency even and still held by Central banks as reserves) whilst not really tightly coupled to the politics or Economics of any one country.

Just switching savings to a different currency or assets denominated in other currencies (say, ETFs on major stock indices in markets outside one's home market) would probably do most of the same, though if a big country like the US really goes down the shithole, other economies will also be dragged down at least a bit, and of course any currency or assets denominated in that currency you hold are at the mercy of governmental mismanagement in that country.

Gold, meanwhile, just sits there and does nothing being controller by nobody.

It's the ultimate passive isolationist investment, IMHO, and as I said way back in my first post, having been hit directly by the last to biggest economic crashes plus Brexit, I'm biased towards passive isolationist long term holding of value.

[–] UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 1 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

Gold is good at facing the biggest Social and Economic upheaval of all

It's not. It's still a commodity (and not a particularly useful one). Again, if you pick any given market crash and you invest in a telecom or energy giant at the outset, you're going to outperform gold as a commodity over the intervening years. Gold only pays out when you can time the market and sell during a surge in demand. Outside of those boom cycles, the commodity trades flat or declining.

It is, at best, a short cycle hedge against sudden drops in price. And at that point, your play is to sell the gold and buy into an undervalued equity.

Gold just works it’s “magic”

:-|

[–] Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

Well, as I explained for me it has been pretty good at just passivelly avoiding the consequences of nation-sized bullshit like Brexit without me doing anything at all.

At the risk of repeating myself, my whole point is that it's good as a passive investment, not that it can't easilly be beaten by active trade strategies by somebody with good market knowledge (who is entering and exiting positions and can spot those "undervalued equities")

Hence my expectation that for the ignorant investor or those who can't be arsed to follow the markets, it's probably a suitable passive zero-knowledge-needed way to bypass the consequences of whatever shit the US seems to be diving into as well as on a grander scale the transition from America as the top power to China as the top power, all things with a scope of at least one or two decades.

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