memes

... you know that goldfish, randomly swimming to one side or another of a fish tank...

... you know they perform better at picking stocks that will go up or down in the next quarter than nearly all professional hedge fund managers, right?

In fact, this old expiriment was rerun fairly recently... ironically, with an AI being used to simulate a goldfish, in a scenario similar to that old study from some decades back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/tts0a4/some_theories_on_how_the_goldfish_was_able_to/

The goldfish outperformed both WSB... and the Nasdaq.

I am literally not even joking when I tell you that a goldfish will probably outperform an AI at at least fairly short term stock picking.

See, there is a fundamental problem to predicting the market.

You have to have a strategy by which you do this.

If you employ this strategy... people will reverse engineer it and figure out how it works.

Then, everyone does that strategy.

Then, the strategy does not work any more, 'nonsense' begins to happen.

If you are curious about the mechanics that cover that whole, meta sort of process, look into game theory under conditions of imperfect information and information assymetry.

Its... basically a robust mathematical approach to simulating the flux of 'animal spirits' within a market... or in modern vernacular, 'vibes'.