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I don't think it's necessarily all Manchin's but I wouldn't be surprised if 30-70% were on a Manchin-like spectrum. I'm pretty sure that when most mainstream Democrats champion anything remotely progressive, they don't really want it to fully succeed (if at all) and would actually vote against the original legislation as written. The supposed champions are depending on Republicans and the open Manchin's to negotiate it down to something the champions would actually be willing to vote for.
I remember, years ago, Republicans put some extremely unpopular legislation up for a vote as a performative gesture knowing it would receive zero Democrat votes. Then one or maybe a few Democrats strategically voted in favor, knowing it would be catastrophic for the Republicans approval if they actually passed it in a Republican controlled Congress. Suddenly the remaining Republicans were forced to vote against the bill in order to prevent it from passing. I recall it was considered a very ballsy and impressive move from Democratic leadership.
Without the filibuster, the roles could absolutely be reversed... but the bill would be extremely popular and Republicans could show the true nature of the Democratic party as the Democrats purposely tank it to prevent it from actually passing.