this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2025
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Quantum Attacks on encryption will probably be feasible by 2030 (www.youtube.com)
submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by wuffah@lemmy.world to c/technology@lemmy.world
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DEF CON 33 - Post Quantum Panic: When Will the Cracking Begin, & Can We Detect it? - K Karagiannis

Due to recently published algorithmic improvements (1399 qubits @ 2048 bit key length for Shor's) and leaps being made in quantum computing hardware (IBM Starling @ 200 logical qubits in 2029, and IBM Blue Jay @ 2000 logical quibits from 2033 and on), encryption is in danger of State-sponsored and high end-criminal attacks as soon as 2030. Particularly susceptible are crypto-currencies like Bitcoin, which rely on the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) and are attackable by Shor's factoring capability on a predictably feasible quantum computer.

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[–] nicolauz@feddit.org 25 points 3 days ago

The fact that he doesn't talk about the current state and real world process of applying and trying out the algorithms and their improvements of the last 10 years makes me strongly believe this is more propaganda than real.

It's all projection, and projections of projections.

I'm not going to argue against the accelerated introduction of post quantum algorithms... But this talk smells