this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2025
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Quantum Attacks on encryption will probably be feasible by 2030 (www.youtube.com)
submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by wuffah@lemmy.world to c/technology@lemmy.world
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DEF CON 33 - Post Quantum Panic: When Will the Cracking Begin, & Can We Detect it? - K Karagiannis

Due to recently published algorithmic improvements (1399 qubits @ 2048 bit key length for Shor's) and leaps being made in quantum computing hardware (IBM Starling @ 200 logical qubits in 2029, and IBM Blue Jay @ 2000 logical quibits from 2033 and on), encryption is in danger of State-sponsored and high end-criminal attacks as soon as 2030. Particularly susceptible are crypto-currencies like Bitcoin, which rely on the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) and are attackable by Shor's factoring capability on a predictably feasible quantum computer.

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[–] just_another_person@lemmy.world 14 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

This is a great talk, but it's ignoring the real issue in that it would need to be "in-line", which is not anywhere near possible. They sort of address that, but are talking about the cyphers themselves mostly.

I think we've reached the cusp where we can exchange new derivative keys on the fly per request without making too much of a dent in speed, but that comes with all kinds of tradeoffs on session length and convenience I suppose.

Edit: I guess there is another eventuality where governments just go and farm public keys and use them against targeted traffic. Not a good way to beat that right now.

[–] JPAKx4@piefed.blahaj.zone 2 points 3 days ago (1 children)

There are now quantum resistant algorithms, with the hope being that even advanced quantum computers wouldn't be able to crack it in a time that different from regular computers. I think I was reading that it's already a part of release wireguard?

[–] just_another_person@lemmy.world 2 points 3 days ago

Resistant, but not guaranteed. Nothing is guaranteed when it comes to encryption.