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I'll just be over here quietly cheering "two fronts" because I'm sure it'll go well for them
That may sound cheer worthy, but considering they very obviously can't handle even 1 front, attacking another country would have to be for a different reason, a more problematic reason.
Can you expound on the later part of your thought? I'm struggling to picture a scenario in which the Kremlin purposefully opens a second front. The purpose of these airspace raids is to saber rattle and make it so Europe beefs up its defenses and is less likely to give equipment to Ukraine and instead use it domestically.
Russia doesn't act logically and there's a positive feedback loop in the command - where each commander reports situation to his commander as better than it actually is, so what Putin hears from his yesmen, may as well be something like:
So yeah, it may be that they're just all bark no bite now, but after enough time doing that there'll be real question "are we actually gonna do it or chicken out?" and that will be solely a question of leaders fragile ego.
Im curious if this is true in any way, or is just armchair chatter. Are there actual reports of this?
Kinda yes to both variants.
Russia inflates battlefield gains after a costly summer offensive
It's kinda been the thing at least since Soviet times where the tendency to report higher efficiency overcame any logic, and it wasn't just production plans in with those famous "5 year plans", it also creeped in into military, where there'd be, for example, tank hangar overseer reporting 50% of machines being battle ready to his commander, his commander would report 60, then up next it becomes 70, and like that until defence minister gets "we've got entire 100% machines ready".
What We Can Learn from the Soviet Collapse in: Finance & Development Volume 31 Issue 004 (1994)
I can speculate it could be to frame this war as a war against nato, or to get a reason for full scale mobilization, or to get a reason to use nuclear weapons.
"Nuclear weapons use" is an element of their doctrine for foreign policy influence.
They are not fucking idiots. But they do recognize that "nuclear blah blah" works well with cowardly westerners.
They are not fucking idiots? They absolutely are fucking idiots. And they are being backed into a corner. A lot of stuff can happen.
How much do you know about russian history? If your life was on the line, do you think you could write 3 key bullet points (since your life is on the line, you wouldn't have access to a search engine or an LLM) about every decade of 20th century russia? Basic things like 1906 protests, implementation of NEP, Khrushev and so on. No one is asking for in-depth knowledge.
Do you speak russian? How do you know they are not playing you if you don't speak russian?
Your message about "backed into a corner" is exactly what they want you to think. They got you "hook line and sinker" as the North Americans like to say.
Haha. I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about.
You think your the first person I've met with this attitude? Be it IRL/online or from EU or USA?
You can't even speak russian and you claim to understand their leadership and society. It's extremely ignorant.
What are you thinking exactly?
My main idea on why they'd escalate is because they're sure the EU and NATO will fold this time, definitely, for certain.
Escalate just so much that NATO won't act and cracks might form in nato. That was the strategy all along. Maybe this is a part of that.
They should try their luck in Afghanistan again.
That would put them in direct competition with us now that Trump wants the air base back and says he is willing to go to war with Afghanistan to do it.
I'm not a history guy, when was the last time invading Afghanistan went well?
They call that place the graveyard of empires for a reason, I don't think it's ever gone well.
I think it was back in 1219. It lasted until just 1227. Does 8 years count as went well? Or is that too short?
Or Japan.
lots of these events that have occurred might have happened out of inertia. It might be that russians miscalculated and the war in Ukraine should have ended by now, and all these actions are part of a bigger plan