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Everything he says, he's serious about. Annexing Canada, Greenland, Panama canal, tariffs, not leaving office (currently floated as running for another term after this one), getting revenge on all his enemies, etc etc. All of it. How much of it he can actually do is however much he isn't stopped from doing.
Would he order use of force? I don't know. But the question isn't whether Hegseth would go along with it--of course he would. The question is how many American troops would follow the orders. IMO many or most would refuse. They (and the US populace) would view using military force against Canada in the same way they would view using military force against American citizens (which I would not be surprised to be ordered at some point). Other than a few hardcore magats, I believe we would never go along with a war against our Canadian cousins.
I fucking hope so. Many of us have relatives on both sides. We share culture, to an extent. It would basically be civil war.