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I give LA 35% odds of largely burning to the ground first.
How ironic it would be for ICE agents to start the blaze ...
Exactly.
The place is a literal tinderbox in terms of forest/brush fire risk, and its... beyond being a metaphorical tinderbox in terms of basically being a warzone...
...
In WW2, the Japanese sent mini hot air balloons up into the pacific jet stream, with rudimentary sensors, that would drop an incendiary bomb when they 'thought' they were over the US West Coast.
This didn't exactly burn down the entire West Coast, the vast majority of them failed, got blown to who the hell knows where, dropped their firebombs over the ocean, into somewhere humid, failed to detonate...
... but a few of them did actually start minor to moderate forest fires, and/or blow up on fhe ground in a curious hiker or kids face, from California up to British Columbia.
Everything is much drier and hotter now, than during WW2, and military gear, mass civil unrest... yeah, whole lotta things in that situation can potentially start an actual fire.
...
Conversely: Imagine LA in a fire scenario like last winter, started by nature or random idiots or sparking power lines, whatever, but uh now its functionally under military occupation.
They'd likely attempt to assert some kind of control over infrastructure decisions, get in the way of legitimate local govt efforts to help with the fire, who knows maybe fail to evacuate a detention center in the path of a growing fire.