this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2025
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the red (sliwa) candidate aint winning lmfao. Its practically blue (Mamdani) vs blue (Cuomo) vs blue-defected-to-red (adams)
There is no way a corporate dem will endorse mandani, their favorite pawn (cuomo) is still in the race as the runner up.
@LifeInMultipleChoice@lemmy.world
@goldenquetzal@lemmy.world
I agree that Silwa wouldn't normally win, but if you have centrists voting for Cuomo and Adams, some centrists and left of that voting for Mamdani, the 300,000+ voters out of a million that voted for Silwa last election may come closer than one would expect.
Hopefully it'll be 40% Mamdani, 20, 20, 20. But if it appears close I can see Cuomo or Adams "endorsing the other and dropping hoping to get a chance
sliwa is polling at 7% in the latest poll
Even if we assume he get doubled that like 15%
The remainder split 3 way evenly is about 28%
sliwa would have to win like 26% then have the 3 split evenly 24.6 + 24.6 + 24.6
Extremely rare for that to even be possible.
My bets are 60% chance Mamdani wins, 35% cuomo win, 4% adams win, 1% sliwa win.
I hope your right. Now we need 350 more of those mayors, 230ish new congress members, and 53 new senators and we can start to have a start