this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2025
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I wouldn't think of it as somehow absolving people in the region from wanting to make this stuff happen, but without the resources and support from outside, they might be a bit more restrained by necessity/unable to inflict quite the scale of disasters.
Like how North Korea would have probably started some shit but they can't because they don't have anyone willing to boost their military capability to the requisite level. Meanwhile every player in the middle east has some bigger country happy to pump up their military resources while simultaneously tending to distance themselves from the result because a proxy war is safer than direct conflict.
Without the resources from the outside they would probably crackdown on dissent until the population hit tipping point. Outside influence helps people hit the tipping point earlier and turns the balance a little bit more in their favour. Rebel groups are fighting against legit armies they need equipment to even stand a chance.
North Korea has China and russia and there is a ton of tension and close calls. War has popped off before and the US helped and things went well, Korea is doing alright.
Iran has russia and China, there really are very few counties without any support.