sp3ctr4l

If the 4chan posts that are purported to be Elon... actually are...

His latest persona is literally the AntiChrist.

... Normally a person like that ends up in an involuntary hold in a psych ward.

Entirely seriously, I have been listening to many right wing Star Wars fans, since the 90s, make very serious arguments that the Empire were actually the good guys, that Agent Smith from the Matrix is actually a good guy just doing his job.

Also relevant to this: For a long while, Elon used JC Denton, the protagonist from Deus Ex, as his avatar on Twitter...

Somefuckinghow, entirely not realizing that he bears much, much more similarity to the main villain of Deus Ex, the uberwealthy deepstate oligarch Bob Page ... who ... concocts a false reality, regarding a pandemic, to mask the fact that he is covertly meeting with and buying influence of other prominent business people and politicians... all while also heavily investing in advancing AI tech, which he wants to proliferate everywhere.

Like 15 years ago, Elon was a major AI skeptic, considering its development potentially extremely dangerous.

Then he realized he could make money if he got AI (self driving cars) working, and just did a fucking 180.

Oh right Bob Page also pour gabillions of dollars into genetic research to grow the perfect super soldiers (JC and Paul Denton)... meanwhile Elon has ... basically an artificial insemination/breeding kink that also almost certainly involves some kind of artificial genetic selection or manipulation during pregnancy, as ... waaay too many of his kids come out AMAB compared to what you'd expect from the baseline of not doing that.

I have said this before: If you were to ask Elon to summarize his life story, he would tell you his whole life is basically a gigantic 'revenge of the nerd' plot.

He is the uber-incel.

I do genuienly believe he has Aspbergers (so now we'd say he is on the ASD spectrum) given how ... just astoundingly socially awkward he is, goes ham into his hyperfixations (with billions and billions of dollars), is really, really bad at understanding and regulating his own emotions...

I am autistic as well and he is like me at 14 years old, just never actually grew up in terms of taking the time and therapy/counseling to learn how to interface better with neurotypical social norms, understand and accept yourself and how you are different...

Instead, he just wants people to think he's cool, because he never fundamentally learned that... you gotta accept and love and define yourself first man, worry about what other people think about you second, you don't and shouldn't need to be loved or worshipped by everyone ... you should be able to validate yourself.

On that level, it is so fucking sad and pathetic.

Reminds me of the line from a Metric song: All the gold and the guns in the world couldn't get you off.

On another level: This man is a comic book supervillain evil CEO, and needs to be fucking put down or locked away before he just actually kills millions of people, either basically directly, or through astounding incompetence.

Its not me doing the wishing or future predicting here.

It is Zillow.

They have the largest, most comprehensive, and most frequently updated database of information on US home prices... basically, in existence.

They are saying you are wrong.

Not me.

Worth noting that the -1.7% figure is ... nationwide, amalgamated.

There will be areas that keep appreciating, areas that stay flat... but many, many more areas that will depreciate.

"DEUS VULT"

... all in a day's work for ~~the AntiChrist~~ JD Vance.

Jesus fuck it broke through 38k when I was taking a piss, oh boy...

Glad you agree!

=)

Also I just realized we both assumed Libra is a he.

Whoops!

He probably meant that it almost never goes down in nominal, ie, non inflation adjusted terms, yoy.

What you have posted is:

1. Not actual nominal prices, it is the case-schiller index, which is calculated with different weighting and methods than Zillow is using.

2. This is inflation adjusted, real values, again, not nominal prices.

3. Looks like this is a data point at each month, when we are talking about blocking out and aggregating entire years and representing them as one data point.

When looking at more granular data, you're more likely to see more movement. When you're looking at less granular data... a projected yoy decline is a much bigger deal.

Thats a lot of words to say: You are not doing an apples to apples comparison.

That would look like this:

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Apologies for whipping up this shit tier graph from FRED, im on a shitty phone.

Orange or Rust is actual nominal prices, blocked out year by year.

Blue is the nominal change in yearly prices, I would have liked to made it a centered % change graph in the middle, but FRED doesnt do that in its web renderer.

But you can still see any time the blue is... below zero.

And that is, historically, pretty rare, only happening in 7 (or 8?) years of nearly a century of data.

Except it is unexpected, if you ask basically 90% of realtors, and the vast majority of analysts following the housing market, untill... well basically right now.

The whole schtick is that houses prices always go up, never down, that price growth may slow but never actually go negative.

I pointed this out to my other reply to you, but uh yeah, the fundamentals have been blaring more and more warning signs for years, but perception is key, so the vast majority of people who report market projections are incentivized to paint a far too rosy picture...

... And then reality becomes too difficult to ignore, and perceptions shift rapidly.

Zillow, a month ago, was projecting a modest, nationwide growth of 0.8%.

Now, a month later, Trump actually does the stuff he repeatedly said he was going to do, but the market just assumed he was either bullshitting or had a more robust and thought out plan...

And suddenly the delusions are eviscerated, and a month later, 0.8% gets moved downward -2.5% to a -1.7% projection.

These people did not see this coming until it smacked them in the face.

Almost no one was projecting an actual decline, publically, untill very recently, and if you were projecting a decline 6 months ago, you would have either been dismissed or laughed at by the experts.

Yes.

The bubble pops when the price growth stops, and goes negative.

'The bubble' is basically the idea that prices just keep going up forever.

Based on that idea, financing, loans, leverage happens.

When the fundamentals no longer represent the bubble mindset, everyone whose personal budgets or business relies on prices just going upward, forever, are now margin squeezed, and potentially margin called depending on how overleveraged they are.... because you based your ability to pay the debt on your loans you used to purchase the property... on the idea that your property and thus rent prices would just keep going up.

Now, your property is actually worth less, and thus so is the amount of rent you can charge... but your debt payments are still the same.

You hold out as long as you can, but all around you other property owners are cutting their losses and selling at lower property values, which further reinforces the idea that your own property isn't worth the rent you are charging for it.

EDIT:

There are a lot of underlying fundamentals that drove Zillow's projection, which are broadly addressed in the article.

But it is also worth mentioning that a single month ago, Zillow was projecting a modest 0.8% growth for the year forward.

Then Trump decided to greatly aggrevate the economic situation, and things downturned so fast that 0.8% growth turned into -1.7%.

The fundamentals have been building up to a breaking point for a while now, huge inventory numbers, much more time on market till a sale, sellers offering many kinds of concessions, significant lossess in the stock prices of major homebuildets...

But then Trump did the Tariff nonsense, and also decided to deport all the brown people to a gulag, cause an overt constitutional crisis, and destroy the USD as the de facto world currency... and in doing all thjs, he essentially popped the bubble himself.

Trumps actions in one month shifted the growth projections for a whole year by -2.5%.

A nearly 50% drop in booked global TEUs?

TEU means Twenty Foot Equivalent Units, your basic standard shipping container.

Yes, yes, this is astoundingly, apocalyptically bad.

America will be more fucked than others, but this is Great Depression 2.0.

If this persists, and you end up with a the rest of the year of roughly half the TEU... well you'd go from about 900m TEU to about 550m TEU.

The last time global sea trade clocked in at about 550m TEU was 2010.

https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter5/intermodal-transportation-containerization/world-container-throughput/

So... yeah, just wipe out the last 15 years worth of volume of world trade, and economic activity/growth enabled by that, and oh also you have about 1 billion more mouths to feed than in 2010.

Or... if you look at it in terms of % change.... its hard to find detailed, historical, week by week figures without paying for the data, but the entirety of the GFC hitting the global economy in 2009 resulted in an 8.5% decrease in global TEU from 2008.

So... it remains to be seen how long and strong the current downturn in TEU will persist...

But, if you say 2025 TEU drops by 30% in aggregate for the rest of this year... that is a 2025 that has a -22.5% 'growth' in total world trade volume, almost 3x as bad as the 07 08 09 GFC, the impact of which was seen in the -8.5% of 2009.

These are spitball guess numbers, I can't predict the future... but I do have a degree in Econ and I used to work as an executive level data analyst for a large mulinational, US based import export firm... so its moderately informed spitball guess.

This is Great Depression 2.0, this will make the GFC look like childs play. This is tens or hundreds of millions of people (globally) going broke, becoming homeless, starving to death levels of bad.

The only way to prevent that at this point is ... well basically step one is America needs to impeach and imprison every Trump administration member... but that is uh... not guaranteed, to say the least.

For me, the image of this post... is like... a crying, clipart style cartoon soccer ball, that is animated in a few frames of a radial series of dots filling up around the soccer ball, and then when the dots circle the entire soccer ball, it like... jumps, and makes a more pained, cartoon expression.

collapsed inline media

Maybe this is some very weird glitch or quirk on my end, or results from the particular lemmy browser app I am using? (Thunder)

It has stayed this way for almost 2 days now, I am not hallucinating lol, but apparently no one else is seeing this?

I... would also have thought this as well.

Just have a player host their own instance, everyone connects to them, and have some kind of fallback system in place in case the host disconnects.

Then, next step, make it so that once that basic framework is setup, maybe also have a basic host migration thing within an established group of players, basically ping everyone to everyone and pick the person who has the lowest average ping to everyone else as the host.

I do not undertand at all why this game ... needs a central server at all.

It is described as an 'online only' game.

I have not played it, but it seems like the levels are small, the default player count is 6, but a lot of the game is based on physics interactions...

Closest comparison I can think of is fucking about on GMod with 6 people, which you could probably pull off with your own self hosted instance, but a higher player count (which is apparently the main thrust of these mods that they say are anihilating their bandwidth) would need an actual dedicated server to avoid desync and lagging into oblivion.