sp3ctr4l

I mean, technically, kind of, yes, in the sense of ... bringing a hand grenade to an arm wrestling match... does ensure your opponent ... won't win...

What's the old LBJ line?

"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."

Uh pretty much yep, just insert any sufficiently maligned minority group in the place of black americans, and this still holds up as a fundamental principle of American politics, 60ish years later.

... Even assuming the self driving tech was actually capable of doing this, which is won't be...

How would this even make any sense?

Ok, if you live within about 200 to 300 miles of a Tesla factory, ... you have this option?

Fremont, California; Sparks, Nevada; Austin, Texas; Buffalo, New York; Lathrop, California.

Outside of 250 miles ish of one of those places? No self driving delivery for you.

... And I am pretty surr not all models are made at all those locations.

Despite long ago claiming his EVs and charger network would be capable of automatically recharging or battery swapping themselves... to make a long distance journey... that ... doesn't exist, he abandoned all of that.

Even funnier: Imagine a tesla self driving from the as of yet to be completed gigafactory in Monterrey Mexico... through the border checkpoint.

The auto charger network doesn't exist, the car would murder people, cause an accident or fucking explode in the border queue... and even if none of that happened... how in the fuck is a self driving car gonna get through a militarized border crossing?

If he just gives himself a waiver via DOGE for his cars... congrats Elon, you are now a drug trafficker / arms smuggler, whether you know it or not.

... fucking lunacy.

I absolutely despise the patronizing and bellittling nature of that phrase, and the tone it is usually delivered in...

... But at the same time... cleaning as you cook a complex meal with multiple steps and lots of involved cookware... really really does cut down on overall time spent in the kitchen, and makes for an actually usable and sanitary kitchen.

Worst case scenario, you've got everything but the final used cookware soapily soaking in the sink when you serve and eat... and then right after you eat, you rinse and dry those off, and then clean the final stage cookware and serving plates/utensils.

If you don't have the time or energy to handle cooking and cleaning a complex meal... you don't have the time and energy to just cook it, and then be overwhelmed later by the accumulation of 'dish cleaning debt'.

...

It can be somewhat challenging to learn how to cook and clean at the same time, and avoid getting soap into your food or visa versa... but it is by no means impossible, and is a huge time saver... and you can feel proud of yourself for legitimately learning an extremely useful life skill.

If you just set a rule for yourself or your apartment or house that ... there should basically never be any dishes left in the sink for over an hour... you avoid the massive pile up of dishes and always being overwhelmed and avoiding them... because your rule basically enforces breaking things down into cleaning smaller amounts of dishes at a time, and it also forces the generally positive experience of cooking and eating to be integrated with the generally negative experience of cleaning dishes.

...

I have, waaaay too many times, lived with people who just pile up dishes somehow in the sink and dishwasher, such that it becomes an actual biohazard (I mean it, rotting food and mold, swarms of flies in a sink that hasn't been cleaned in two weeks or more, nobody can even remember if the dishes in the dishwasher are all clean, all dirty, or a mix of both)...

...and that means if you wanna cook anything with a commonly used piece of cookware, ok, now you gotta pull it out of the ratsnest in the sink, hope nobody threw any knives in there to cut your hands on, and get an infection from the festering biohazard... and then also you must now somehow clean this cookware while the sink is completely full.

Which means you have to just clean the entire sink to begin to be able to clean the major cookware you need to begin to cook the food.

...

Hell, the solution that ended up working best for me was to just also throw on a 'no dishwasher' rule.

Force yourself to associate the actual cleaning cost with whatever you are cooking... and the result was that I ended up with a mental health affirming regular structured rule/habit, that I actually ended up genuienly enjoying, as another source of 'i actually accomplished something today'... as well as basically ingraining a better subconscious ability to understand what level of cooking complexity I actually had the energy to prepare.

If you find yourself being often overwhelmed by what you want to make... learn to make simpler recipes, get a rice cooker or crockpot and just have basically a constant supply of something approximating a stew, get an airfryer or toaster oven for rapidly heating up smaller portions, salads are great for you and often have a pretty low prep time.

Save the dishwasher for actual schedule emergencies and hosting an occasional get together or party.

...

Basically, treat dishes as credit card debt.

Pay that shit off ASAP, otherwise, it'll snowball into disaster.

Remove the 'i can handle the dishes/pay this off later' from your mental approach to it, directly associate all the costs together in a very near time frame.

...

tldr; that saying needs a makeover or rebrand.

Maybe:

Clean as you go, dish pile don't grow.

something like that? I am not really a ... sloganeer.

If the 4chan posts that are purported to be Elon... actually are...

His latest persona is literally the AntiChrist.

... Normally a person like that ends up in an involuntary hold in a psych ward.

Entirely seriously, I have been listening to many right wing Star Wars fans, since the 90s, make very serious arguments that the Empire were actually the good guys, that Agent Smith from the Matrix is actually a good guy just doing his job.

Also relevant to this: For a long while, Elon used JC Denton, the protagonist from Deus Ex, as his avatar on Twitter...

Somefuckinghow, entirely not realizing that he bears much, much more similarity to the main villain of Deus Ex, the uberwealthy deepstate oligarch Bob Page ... who ... concocts a false reality, regarding a pandemic, to mask the fact that he is covertly meeting with and buying influence of other prominent business people and politicians... all while also heavily investing in advancing AI tech, which he wants to proliferate everywhere.

Like 15 years ago, Elon was a major AI skeptic, considering its development potentially extremely dangerous.

Then he realized he could make money if he got AI (self driving cars) working, and just did a fucking 180.

Oh right Bob Page also pour gabillions of dollars into genetic research to grow the perfect super soldiers (JC and Paul Denton)... meanwhile Elon has ... basically an artificial insemination/breeding kink that also almost certainly involves some kind of artificial genetic selection or manipulation during pregnancy, as ... waaay too many of his kids come out AMAB compared to what you'd expect from the baseline of not doing that.

I have said this before: If you were to ask Elon to summarize his life story, he would tell you his whole life is basically a gigantic 'revenge of the nerd' plot.

He is the uber-incel.

I do genuienly believe he has Aspbergers (so now we'd say he is on the ASD spectrum) given how ... just astoundingly socially awkward he is, goes ham into his hyperfixations (with billions and billions of dollars), is really, really bad at understanding and regulating his own emotions...

I am autistic as well and he is like me at 14 years old, just never actually grew up in terms of taking the time and therapy/counseling to learn how to interface better with neurotypical social norms, understand and accept yourself and how you are different...

Instead, he just wants people to think he's cool, because he never fundamentally learned that... you gotta accept and love and define yourself first man, worry about what other people think about you second, you don't and shouldn't need to be loved or worshipped by everyone ... you should be able to validate yourself.

On that level, it is so fucking sad and pathetic.

Reminds me of the line from a Metric song: All the gold and the guns in the world couldn't get you off.

On another level: This man is a comic book supervillain evil CEO, and needs to be fucking put down or locked away before he just actually kills millions of people, either basically directly, or through astounding incompetence.

Its not me doing the wishing or future predicting here.

It is Zillow.

They have the largest, most comprehensive, and most frequently updated database of information on US home prices... basically, in existence.

They are saying you are wrong.

Not me.

Worth noting that the -1.7% figure is ... nationwide, amalgamated.

There will be areas that keep appreciating, areas that stay flat... but many, many more areas that will depreciate.

"DEUS VULT"

... all in a day's work for ~~the AntiChrist~~ JD Vance.

Jesus fuck it broke through 38k when I was taking a piss, oh boy...

Glad you agree!

=)

Also I just realized we both assumed Libra is a he.

Whoops!

He probably meant that it almost never goes down in nominal, ie, non inflation adjusted terms, yoy.

What you have posted is:

1. Not actual nominal prices, it is the case-schiller index, which is calculated with different weighting and methods than Zillow is using.

2. This is inflation adjusted, real values, again, not nominal prices.

3. Looks like this is a data point at each month, when we are talking about blocking out and aggregating entire years and representing them as one data point.

When looking at more granular data, you're more likely to see more movement. When you're looking at less granular data... a projected yoy decline is a much bigger deal.

Thats a lot of words to say: You are not doing an apples to apples comparison.

That would look like this:

collapsed inline media

Apologies for whipping up this shit tier graph from FRED, im on a shitty phone.

Orange or Rust is actual nominal prices, blocked out year by year.

Blue is the nominal change in yearly prices, I would have liked to made it a centered % change graph in the middle, but FRED doesnt do that in its web renderer.

But you can still see any time the blue is... below zero.

And that is, historically, pretty rare, only happening in 7 (or 8?) years of nearly a century of data.

Except it is unexpected, if you ask basically 90% of realtors, and the vast majority of analysts following the housing market, untill... well basically right now.

The whole schtick is that houses prices always go up, never down, that price growth may slow but never actually go negative.

I pointed this out to my other reply to you, but uh yeah, the fundamentals have been blaring more and more warning signs for years, but perception is key, so the vast majority of people who report market projections are incentivized to paint a far too rosy picture...

... And then reality becomes too difficult to ignore, and perceptions shift rapidly.

Zillow, a month ago, was projecting a modest, nationwide growth of 0.8%.

Now, a month later, Trump actually does the stuff he repeatedly said he was going to do, but the market just assumed he was either bullshitting or had a more robust and thought out plan...

And suddenly the delusions are eviscerated, and a month later, 0.8% gets moved downward -2.5% to a -1.7% projection.

These people did not see this coming until it smacked them in the face.

Almost no one was projecting an actual decline, publically, untill very recently, and if you were projecting a decline 6 months ago, you would have either been dismissed or laughed at by the experts.

Yes.

The bubble pops when the price growth stops, and goes negative.

'The bubble' is basically the idea that prices just keep going up forever.

Based on that idea, financing, loans, leverage happens.

When the fundamentals no longer represent the bubble mindset, everyone whose personal budgets or business relies on prices just going upward, forever, are now margin squeezed, and potentially margin called depending on how overleveraged they are.... because you based your ability to pay the debt on your loans you used to purchase the property... on the idea that your property and thus rent prices would just keep going up.

Now, your property is actually worth less, and thus so is the amount of rent you can charge... but your debt payments are still the same.

You hold out as long as you can, but all around you other property owners are cutting their losses and selling at lower property values, which further reinforces the idea that your own property isn't worth the rent you are charging for it.

EDIT:

There are a lot of underlying fundamentals that drove Zillow's projection, which are broadly addressed in the article.

But it is also worth mentioning that a single month ago, Zillow was projecting a modest 0.8% growth for the year forward.

Then Trump decided to greatly aggrevate the economic situation, and things downturned so fast that 0.8% growth turned into -1.7%.

The fundamentals have been building up to a breaking point for a while now, huge inventory numbers, much more time on market till a sale, sellers offering many kinds of concessions, significant lossess in the stock prices of major homebuildets...

But then Trump did the Tariff nonsense, and also decided to deport all the brown people to a gulag, cause an overt constitutional crisis, and destroy the USD as the de facto world currency... and in doing all thjs, he essentially popped the bubble himself.

Trumps actions in one month shifted the growth projections for a whole year by -2.5%.