Highly interesting. However:
So these are the parts of the EUPL 1.2 that are most relevant to copyleft:
- Obligations of the Licensee
...
Copyleft clause: If the Licensee distributes or communicates copies of the Original Works or Derivative Works, this Distribution or Communication will be done under the terms of this Licence or of a later version of this Licence unless the Original Work is expressly distributed only under this version of the Licence — for example by communicating ‘EUPL v. 1.2 only’. The Licensee (becoming Licensor) cannot offer or impose any additional terms or conditions on the Work or Derivative Work that alter or restrict the terms of the Licence.
Compatibility clause: If the Licensee Distributes or Communicates Derivative Works or copies thereof based upon both the Work and another work licensed under a Compatible Licence, this Distribution or Communication can be done under the terms of this Compatible Licence. For the sake of this clause, ‘Compatible Licence’ refers to the licences listed in the appendix attached to this Licence. Should the Licensee's obligations under the Compatible Licence conflict with his/her obligations under this Licence, the obligations of the Compatible Licence shall prevail.
Having read this section multiple times, also in different languages, I preliminarily believe that the following still remains possible:
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Let's say that some person or entity "A" has released some code under the EUPL.
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Some other person or entity "B" creates a derivative work and distributes it (including all of A's code) under the LGPL. This is allowed per the first sentence of the EUPL's Compatibility clause above: "this Distribution or Communication can be done under the terms of this Compatible Licence". Here B is a licensee of the EUPL-licenced work, and what the final part of the Compatibility clause (just like the text that you quoted) says is that B, being a licensee of a EUPL-licensed work, continues to be bound by all of the EUPL's copyleft obligations. Fair enough.
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Now some third person or entity "C" comes along, and takes just this re-distributed work, which is being distributed by B under the terms of just the LGPL. Here C has no obligations under the EUPL, because C is only dealing with code that is distributed by B under just the LGPL. That is, C is solely a licensee under the terms of the LGPL.
And thus the exploit would be: Corporation C pays some straw man company B to re-distribute A's interesting EUPL code under the LGPL, so that corporation C can pick it up while only needing to comply with the weaker copyleft of the LGPL.
I think the EUPL has indeed outruled such redistributing-to-oneself by defining
(Besides, I could imagine that even without this definition, such redistributing-to-oneself would already constitute a violation because it would count as an act in bad faith.)
Keeping up copyleft is a neverending struggle against influence campaigns and lobbying operations telling us and telling public officials, "Don't be so obsessed with copyleft like the ideologues at the FSF are; all those scenarios you're hearing about up won't occur anyway." And then they try to privatize the X Window System. The second document that you linked to (this one) actually has this interesting sentence in the Disclaimer at its top: "The Matrix is not influenced by ideology (telling the good and the ugly, urging people to use or to avoid specific licenses)." It does sound like the authors have been under such an influence.
My theory would be that these lawyers, top professionals doubtless, were being tasked something like "By golly, we have 27 languages, 27 legal systems, and the French are already using their own favorite licence—you have to give us something we can work with". And so interoperability, convertibility, became their top priority, to which they would indeed consciously or unconsciously sacrifice watertight copyleft.
That being said, the issue with how well the GPL and AGPL fit European jurisdictions must of course be resolved somehow.