In addition, a lot of the “natural talent” might be coming from early childhood practice when children's brains are the most malleable - eg if a kid is drawing since they are 6, it is much more likely they'll be noticed and cultivated. Which makes them more likely to appear talented when they are 11 / 15 etc, when they might be noticed and cultivated in turn etc. Early advantages pile up.
Not to say that some things gene related are not advantageous - you are not likely to become a basketball player if you are short, even if you put in enormous amounts of practice.
In addition, a lot of the “natural talent” might be coming from early childhood practice when children's brains are the most malleable - eg if a kid is drawing since they are 6, it is much more likely they'll be noticed and cultivated. Which makes them more likely to appear talented when they are 11 / 15 etc, when they might be noticed and cultivated in turn etc. Early advantages pile up.
Not to say that some things gene related are not advantageous - you are not likely to become a basketball player if you are short, even if you put in enormous amounts of practice.