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Right-wing opposition presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential election, official results show. With 100% of districts having reported results, Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote against 49.11% for his centrist, government-aligned rival, Rafał Trzaskowski.

Turnout stood at 71.63%, which is a record for a Polish presidential election, beating the 68.23% seen in 1995. It is also the second-highest turnout among all post-1989 Polish elections, behind only the 74.38% at the 2023 parliamentary election.

The outcome represents a remarkable victory for Nawrocki, a political novice who had never previously stood for elected office and trailed Trzaskowski in the polls for virtually the entire campaign. It will also have a huge influence on how Poland is governed during his five-year term.

Trzaskowski, who is deputy leader of Poland’s main ruling party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), would have worked closely with the ruling coalition of PO Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

However, Nawrocki, technically an independent but whose candidacy was supported by the national-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, is likely to wield his veto and other presidential powers to stymie the government’s agenda, just as the current PiS-aligned incumbent Andrzej Duda has done.

Trzaskowski, a multilingual former minister for European affairs and member of the European Parliament, would also have favoured closer relations with Brussels while Nawrocki – who was endorsed by the Trump administration during the campaign – is a eurosceptic who favours strong ties with Washington.

Sunday’s run-off vote came two weeks after Trzaskowski and Nawrocki had emerged as the top two candidates among 13 who stood in the first round two weeks earlier.

The initial exit poll, published immediately as voting ended at 9 p.m., placed Trzaskowski narrowly ahead, on 50.3%. However, with a margin of error of around 2 percentage points, that poll made the result too close to call.

Updated versions of the exit poll published later on Sunday and in the early hours of Monday – which also included the first official results as they began to filter through – showed a reversal of the situation, with Nawrocki now leading on 50.7%. That led many analysts to call the win for Nawrocki.

Among the first to congratulate Nawrocki on Monday morning was Duda, whose second and final term in office ends in August this year.

“It was a difficult, sometimes painful, but incredibly courageous fight for Poland, for how the affairs of our homeland are to be conducted,” wrote Duda, who endorsed Nawrocki during the campaign. “Thank you for this heroic fight until the last minute…Thank you…for the victory! Bravo!”

Duda, who himself defeated Trzaskowski at the 2020 presidential election, also thanked the losing candidate for his “determination in the fight for the presidency…[and] willingness to take responsibility for Poland”.

Neither Nawrocki nor Trzaskowski have yet commented on the result, but the first foreign leader to issue congratulations to Nawrocki was Petr Pavel, president of the neighbouring Czech Republic.

“I believe that, under his leadership, Poland will continue to develop its democratic and pro-Western direction and that our countries will continue their mutually beneficial cooperation,” wrote Pavel.

The final election results must also be confirmed by the Supreme Court’s chamber of extraordinary review and public affairs.

However, that process is shrouded in controversy because the chamber – which was created as part of the PiS party’s judicial reforms when it was in power – is regarded as illegitimate by Tusk’s government.

An attempt by the ruling coalition to change the way that the presidential election results are validated by the Supreme Court was vetoed in March this year by Duda

Sunday’s run-off vote comes at the end of a months-long campaign that has seen the interrelated issues of security and migration at the forefront.

The war in neighbouring Ukraine has seen both candidates pledge to continue efforts to bolster Poland’s defence capabilities through expansion and modernisation of the armed forces.

Nawrocki, however, has taken a much tougher line regarding Ukraine itself, including signing a pledge not to ratify its accession to NATO if he becomes president. Tusk, as well as Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, criticised that decision, saying that it echoed Russian demands.

Both candidates have also pledged to clamp down on immigration and on the support given to immigrants already in Poland, though again Nawrocki has taken tougher positions.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has pledged that, if he were to become president, he would seek to sign bills liberalising the abortion law, introducing same-sex civil partnerships and undoing PiS’s judicial reforms.

Nawrocki, by contrast, holds deeply conservative views on social issues and has pledged not to sign any bills ending the current near-total ban on abortion.

During the final stages of the campaign, Nawrocki was hit by a series of scandals. It came to light that he had lied about only having one apartment. Not only did he own a second, but various questions came to light over how he had come to possess it and how he treated the elderly, disabled man living there.

Subsequently, a leading news website, Onet, reported that Nawrocki had helped procure prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel where he worked as a security guard. Nawrocki denied the claims – based on testimony by anonymous former colleagues – and pledged to sue Onet.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski faced questions after it emerged that hundreds of thousands of zloty had been spent on Facebook adverts supporting him and attacking Nawrocki.

The provenance of that money remains unclear, but there is a chance it came from abroad, which would be illegal under Polish election law. Trzaskowski has insisted that he and his staff had no involvement in or knowledge of the campaign.

Right-wing opposition presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential election, official results show. With 100% of districts having reported results, Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote against 49.11% for his centrist, government-aligned rival, Rafał Trzaskowski.

Turnout stood at 71.63%, which is a record for a Polish presidential election, beating the 68.23% seen in 1995. It is also the second-highest turnout among all post-1989 Polish elections, behind only the 74.38% at the 2023 parliamentary election.

The outcome represents a remarkable victory for Nawrocki, a political novice who had never previously stood for elected office and trailed Trzaskowski in the polls for virtually the entire campaign. It will also have a huge influence on how Poland is governed during his five-year term.

Trzaskowski, who is deputy leader of Poland’s main ruling party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), would have worked closely with the ruling coalition of PO Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

However, Nawrocki, technically an independent but whose candidacy was supported by the national-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, is likely to wield his veto and other presidential powers to stymie the government’s agenda, just as the current PiS-aligned incumbent Andrzej Duda has done.

Trzaskowski, a multilingual former minister for European affairs and member of the European Parliament, would also have favoured closer relations with Brussels while Nawrocki – who was endorsed by the Trump administration during the campaign – is a eurosceptic who favours strong ties with Washington.

Sunday’s run-off vote came two weeks after Trzaskowski and Nawrocki had emerged as the top two candidates among 13 who stood in the first round two weeks earlier.

The initial exit poll, published immediately as voting ended at 9 p.m., placed Trzaskowski narrowly ahead, on 50.3%. However, with a margin of error of around 2 percentage points, that poll made the result too close to call.

Updated versions of the exit poll published later on Sunday and in the early hours of Monday – which also included the first official results as they began to filter through – showed a reversal of the situation, with Nawrocki now leading on 50.7%. That led many analysts to call the win for Nawrocki.

Among the first to congratulate Nawrocki on Monday morning was Duda, whose second and final term in office ends in August this year.

“It was a difficult, sometimes painful, but incredibly courageous fight for Poland, for how the affairs of our homeland are to be conducted,” wrote Duda, who endorsed Nawrocki during the campaign. “Thank you for this heroic fight until the last minute…Thank you…for the victory! Bravo!”

Duda, who himself defeated Trzaskowski at the 2020 presidential election, also thanked the losing candidate for his “determination in the fight for the presidency…[and] willingness to take responsibility for Poland”.

Neither Nawrocki nor Trzaskowski have yet commented on the result, but the first foreign leader to issue congratulations to Nawrocki was Petr Pavel, president of the neighbouring Czech Republic.

“I believe that, under his leadership, Poland will continue to develop its democratic and pro-Western direction and that our countries will continue their mutually beneficial cooperation,” wrote Pavel.

The final election results must also be confirmed by the Supreme Court’s chamber of extraordinary review and public affairs.

However, that process is shrouded in controversy because the chamber – which was created as part of the PiS party’s judicial reforms when it was in power – is regarded as illegitimate by Tusk’s government.

An attempt by the ruling coalition to change the way that the presidential election results are validated by the Supreme Court was vetoed in March this year by Duda

Sunday’s run-off vote comes at the end of a months-long campaign that has seen the interrelated issues of security and migration at the forefront.

The war in neighbouring Ukraine has seen both candidates pledge to continue efforts to bolster Poland’s defence capabilities through expansion and modernisation of the armed forces.

Nawrocki, however, has taken a much tougher line regarding Ukraine itself, including signing a pledge not to ratify its accession to NATO if he becomes president. Tusk, as well as Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, criticised that decision, saying that it echoed Russian demands.

Both candidates have also pledged to clamp down on immigration and on the support given to immigrants already in Poland, though again Nawrocki has taken tougher positions.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has pledged that, if he were to become president, he would seek to sign bills liberalising the abortion law, introducing same-sex civil partnerships and undoing PiS’s judicial reforms.

Nawrocki, by contrast, holds deeply conservative views on social issues and has pledged not to sign any bills ending the current near-total ban on abortion.

During the final stages of the campaign, Nawrocki was hit by a series of scandals. It came to light that he had lied about only having one apartment. Not only did he own a second, but various questions came to light over how he had come to possess it and how he treated the elderly, disabled man living there.

Subsequently, a leading news website, Onet, reported that Nawrocki had helped procure prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel where he worked as a security guard. Nawrocki denied the claims – based on testimony by anonymous former colleagues – and pledged to sue Onet.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski faced questions after it emerged that hundreds of thousands of zloty had been spent on Facebook adverts supporting him and attacking Nawrocki.

The provenance of that money remains unclear, but there is a chance it came from abroad, which would be illegal under Polish election law. Trzaskowski has insisted that he and his staff had no involvement in or knowledge of the campaign.

Right-wing opposition presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential election, official results show. With 100% of districts having reported results, Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote against 49.11% for his centrist, government-aligned rival, Rafał Trzaskowski.

Turnout stood at 71.63%, which is a record for a Polish presidential election, beating the 68.23% seen in 1995. It is also the second-highest turnout among all post-1989 Polish elections, behind only the 74.38% at the 2023 parliamentary election.

The outcome represents a remarkable victory for Nawrocki, a political novice who had never previously stood for elected office and trailed Trzaskowski in the polls for virtually the entire campaign. It will also have a huge influence on how Poland is governed during his five-year term.

Trzaskowski, who is deputy leader of Poland’s main ruling party, the centrist Civic Platform (PO), would have worked closely with the ruling coalition of PO Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

However, Nawrocki, technically an independent but whose candidacy was supported by the national-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, is likely to wield his veto and other presidential powers to stymie the government’s agenda, just as the current PiS-aligned incumbent Andrzej Duda has done.

Trzaskowski, a multilingual former minister for European affairs and member of the European Parliament, would also have favoured closer relations with Brussels while Nawrocki – who was endorsed by the Trump administration during the campaign – is a eurosceptic who favours strong ties with Washington.

Sunday’s run-off vote came two weeks after Trzaskowski and Nawrocki had emerged as the top two candidates among 13 who stood in the first round two weeks earlier.

The initial exit poll, published immediately as voting ended at 9 p.m., placed Trzaskowski narrowly ahead, on 50.3%. However, with a margin of error of around 2 percentage points, that poll made the result too close to call.

Updated versions of the exit poll published later on Sunday and in the early hours of Monday – which also included the first official results as they began to filter through – showed a reversal of the situation, with Nawrocki now leading on 50.7%. That led many analysts to call the win for Nawrocki.

Among the first to congratulate Nawrocki on Monday morning was Duda, whose second and final term in office ends in August this year.

“It was a difficult, sometimes painful, but incredibly courageous fight for Poland, for how the affairs of our homeland are to be conducted,” wrote Duda, who endorsed Nawrocki during the campaign. “Thank you for this heroic fight until the last minute…Thank you…for the victory! Bravo!”

Duda, who himself defeated Trzaskowski at the 2020 presidential election, also thanked the losing candidate for his “determination in the fight for the presidency…[and] willingness to take responsibility for Poland”.

Neither Nawrocki nor Trzaskowski have yet commented on the result, but the first foreign leader to issue congratulations to Nawrocki was Petr Pavel, president of the neighbouring Czech Republic.

“I believe that, under his leadership, Poland will continue to develop its democratic and pro-Western direction and that our countries will continue their mutually beneficial cooperation,” wrote Pavel.

The final election results must also be confirmed by the Supreme Court’s chamber of extraordinary review and public affairs.

However, that process is shrouded in controversy because the chamber – which was created as part of the PiS party’s judicial reforms when it was in power – is regarded as illegitimate by Tusk’s government.

An attempt by the ruling coalition to change the way that the presidential election results are validated by the Supreme Court was vetoed in March this year by Duda

Sunday’s run-off vote comes at the end of a months-long campaign that has seen the interrelated issues of security and migration at the forefront.

The war in neighbouring Ukraine has seen both candidates pledge to continue efforts to bolster Poland’s defence capabilities through expansion and modernisation of the armed forces.

Nawrocki, however, has taken a much tougher line regarding Ukraine itself, including signing a pledge not to ratify its accession to NATO if he becomes president. Tusk, as well as Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, criticised that decision, saying that it echoed Russian demands.

Both candidates have also pledged to clamp down on immigration and on the support given to immigrants already in Poland, though again Nawrocki has taken tougher positions.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has pledged that, if he were to become president, he would seek to sign bills liberalising the abortion law, introducing same-sex civil partnerships and undoing PiS’s judicial reforms.

Nawrocki, by contrast, holds deeply conservative views on social issues and has pledged not to sign any bills ending the current near-total ban on abortion.

During the final stages of the campaign, Nawrocki was hit by a series of scandals. It came to light that he had lied about only having one apartment. Not only did he own a second, but various questions came to light over how he had come to possess it and how he treated the elderly, disabled man living there.

Subsequently, a leading news website, Onet, reported that Nawrocki had helped procure prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel where he worked as a security guard. Nawrocki denied the claims – based on testimony by anonymous former colleagues – and pledged to sue Onet.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski faced questions after it emerged that hundreds of thousands of zloty had been spent on Facebook adverts supporting him and attacking Nawrocki.

The provenance of that money remains unclear, but there is a chance it came from abroad, which would be illegal under Polish election law. Trzaskowski has insisted that he and his staff had no involvement in or knowledge of the campaign.

This is a breaking news story and may be updated as further information becomes available.

As voting closed in Poland’s pivotal presidential election, the exit poll suggests that the final result – expected to be confirmed on Monday – is too close to call. It also indicates that turnout today, at almost 73%, was an all-time record for a presidential election in Poland.

According to the poll, conducted by Ipsos, Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the centrist Civic Platform (PO), Poland’s main ruling party, took 50.3% of the vote. That put him fractionally ahead of Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the national-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS), on 49.7%.

A separate exit poll by the OGB agency for conservative broadcaster Republika showed the two even closer, with Trzaskowski on 50.2% and Nawrocki on 49.8%.

Whoever is confirmed as the winner will have a huge say in how Poland is governed during their five-year term. Trzaskowski is closely aligned with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition, and would work closely with it, whereas Nawrocki is likely to wield the presidential veto to stymie the government’s agenda.

Meanwhile, if Ipsos’s estimate of voter turnout, 72.8, is correct, then today’s election will have beaten the record for a Polish presidential election, 68.23%, set in 1995, when Lech Wałęsa was narrowly defeated by Aleksander Kwaśniewski.

It would also be the second-highest turnout among all post-1989 Polish elections, with only the 2023 parliamentary election that brought Tusk’s coalition to power recording a higher figure of 74.38%

The Ipsos exit poll, which was today conducted at almost 1,000 randomly selected polling stations, has in previous elections closely matched the final count. But it does have a margin of error.

In the first round of the current election two weeks ago, Ipsos’s exit poll very accurately predicted the final results for both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. As the two most popular among the 13 candidates – but with neither winning over 50% of the vote – they proceeded to today’s second-round run-off.

All eyes will now be on the official count, with results rolling in overnight. The head of the National Electoral Commission (PKW), Sylwester Marciniak, said on Friday that they hope to publish final, official results on Monday morning or early afternoon.

The results must also be confirmed by the Supreme Court’s chamber of extraordinary review and public affairs.

However, that process is shrouded in controversy because the chamber – which was created as part of the PiS party’s judicial reforms when it was in power – is regarded as illegitimate by Tusk’s ruling coalition.

An attempt to change the way that the presidential election results are validated by the Supreme Court was vetoed in March this year by the current president, Andrzej Duda, who is a PiS ally. His second and final term in office ends in August.

If either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki decides to challenge today’s result due to any alleged transgressions in vote counting or other aspects of the electoral process, such claims would be considered by the same, contested chamber of the court.

Whatever the final result, the fact that it is so close represents a remarkable performance for Nawrocki, a political novice who has never previously stood for public office. He currently serves as head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a state historical body.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, is a seasoned political operator who finished a close second to Duda in the 2020 presidential election and currently serves as mayor of Poland’s capital, Warsaw. He is also deputy leader of Tusk’s PO party.

Today’s vote comes at the end of a months-long campaign that has seen the interrelated issues of security and migration at the forefront, and has also seen both candidates – but in particular Nawrocki – hit by scandals and controversy.

The war in neighbouring Ukraine has seen both candidates pledge to continue efforts to bolster Poland’s defence capabilities through expansion and modernisation of the armed forces.

Nawrocki, however, has taken a much tougher line regarding Ukraine itself, including signing a pledge not to ratify its accession to NATO if he becomes president. Tusk, as well as Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, criticised that decision, saying that it echoed Russian demands.

Both candidates have also pledged to clamp down on immigration and on the support given to immigrants already in Poland, though again Nawrocki has taken tougher positions.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has pledged that, if he becomes president, he will seek to sign bills liberalising the abortion law, introducing same-sex civil partnerships and undoing PiS’s judicial reforms.

During the final stages of the campaign, Nawrocki was hit by a series of scandals. It came to light that he had lied about only having one apartment. Not only did he own a second, but various questions came to light over how he had come to possess it and how he treated the elderly, disabled man living there.

Subsequently, a leading news website, Onet, reported that Nawrocki had helped procure prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel where he worked as a security guard. Nawrocki denied the claims – based on testimony by anonymous former colleagues – and pledged to sue Onet.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski faced questions after it emerged that hundreds of thousands of zloty had been spent on Facebook adverts supporting him and attacking Nawrocki.

The provenance of that money remains unclear, but there is a chance it came from abroad, which would be illegal under Polish election law. Trzaskowski has insisted that he and his staff had no involvement in or knowledge of the campaign.

This is a breaking news story and may be updated as further information becomes available.

As voting closed in Poland’s pivotal presidential election, the exit poll suggests that the final result – expected to be confirmed on Monday – is too close to call. It also indicates that turnout today, at almost 73%, was an all-time record for a presidential election in Poland.

According to the poll, conducted by Ipsos, Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the centrist Civic Platform (PO), Poland’s main ruling party, took 50.3% of the vote. That put him fractionally ahead of Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the national-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS), on 49.7%.

A separate exit poll by the OGB agency for conservative broadcaster Republika showed the two even closer, with Trzaskowski on 50.2% and Nawrocki on 49.8%.

Whoever is confirmed as the winner will have a huge say in how Poland is governed during their five-year term. Trzaskowski is closely aligned with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition, and would work closely with it, whereas Nawrocki is likely to wield the presidential veto to stymie the government’s agenda.

Meanwhile, if Ipsos’s estimate of voter turnout, 72.8, is correct, then today’s election will have beaten the record for a Polish presidential election, 68.23%, set in 1995, when Lech Wałęsa was narrowly defeated by Aleksander Kwaśniewski.

It would also be the second-highest turnout among all post-1989 Polish elections, with only the 2023 parliamentary election that brought Tusk’s coalition to power recording a higher figure of 74.38%

The Ipsos exit poll, which was today conducted at almost 1,000 randomly selected polling stations, has in previous elections closely matched the final count. But it does have a margin of error.

In the first round of the current election two weeks ago, Ipsos’s exit poll very accurately predicted the final results for both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. As the two most popular among the 13 candidates – but with neither winning over 50% of the vote – they proceeded to today’s second-round run-off.

All eyes will now be on the official count, with results rolling in overnight. The head of the National Electoral Commission (PKW), Sylwester Marciniak, said on Friday that they hope to publish final, official results on Monday morning or early afternoon.

The results must also be confirmed by the Supreme Court’s chamber of extraordinary review and public affairs.

However, that process is shrouded in controversy because the chamber – which was created as part of the PiS party’s judicial reforms when it was in power – is regarded as illegitimate by Tusk’s ruling coalition.

An attempt to change the way that the presidential election results are validated by the Supreme Court was vetoed in March this year by the current president, Andrzej Duda, who is a PiS ally. His second and final term in office ends in August.

If either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki decides to challenge today’s result due to any alleged transgressions in vote counting or other aspects of the electoral process, such claims would be considered by the same, contested chamber of the court.

Whatever the final result, the fact that it is so close represents a remarkable performance for Nawrocki, a political novice who has never previously stood for public office. He currently serves as head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a state historical body.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, is a seasoned political operator who finished a close second to Duda in the 2020 presidential election and currently serves as mayor of Poland’s capital, Warsaw. He is also deputy leader of Tusk’s PO party.

Today’s vote comes at the end of a months-long campaign that has seen the interrelated issues of security and migration at the forefront, and has also seen both candidates – but in particular Nawrocki – hit by scandals and controversy.

The war in neighbouring Ukraine has seen both candidates pledge to continue efforts to bolster Poland’s defence capabilities through expansion and modernisation of the armed forces.

Nawrocki, however, has taken a much tougher line regarding Ukraine itself, including signing a pledge not to ratify its accession to NATO if he becomes president. Tusk, as well as Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, criticised that decision, saying that it echoed Russian demands.

Both candidates have also pledged to clamp down on immigration and on the support given to immigrants already in Poland, though again Nawrocki has taken tougher positions.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has pledged that, if he becomes president, he will seek to sign bills liberalising the abortion law, introducing same-sex civil partnerships and undoing PiS’s judicial reforms.

During the final stages of the campaign, Nawrocki was hit by a series of scandals. It came to light that he had lied about only having one apartment. Not only did he own a second, but various questions came to light over how he had come to possess it and how he treated the elderly, disabled man living there.

Subsequently, a leading news website, Onet, reported that Nawrocki had helped procure prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel where he worked as a security guard. Nawrocki denied the claims – based on testimony by anonymous former colleagues – and pledged to sue Onet.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski faced questions after it emerged that hundreds of thousands of zloty had been spent on Facebook adverts supporting him and attacking Nawrocki.

The provenance of that money remains unclear, but there is a chance it came from abroad, which would be illegal under Polish election law. Trzaskowski has insisted that he and his staff had no involvement in or knowledge of the campaign.

This is a breaking news story and may be updated as further information becomes available.

As voting closed in Poland’s pivotal presidential election, the exit poll suggests that the final result – expected to be confirmed on Monday – is too close to call. It also indicates that turnout today, at almost 73%, was an all-time record for a presidential election in Poland.

According to the poll, conducted by Ipsos, Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the centrist Civic Platform (PO), Poland’s main ruling party, took 50.3% of the vote. That put him fractionally ahead of Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the national-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS), on 49.7%.

A separate exit poll by the OGB agency for conservative broadcaster Republika showed the two even closer, with Trzaskowski on 50.2% and Nawrocki on 49.8%.

Whoever is confirmed as the winner will have a huge say in how Poland is governed during their five-year term. Trzaskowski is closely aligned with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition, and would work closely with it, whereas Nawrocki is likely to wield the presidential veto to stymie the government’s agenda.

Meanwhile, if Ipsos’s estimate of voter turnout, 72.8, is correct, then today’s election will have beaten the record for a Polish presidential election, 68.23%, set in 1995, when Lech Wałęsa was narrowly defeated by Aleksander Kwaśniewski.

It would also be the second-highest turnout among all post-1989 Polish elections, with only the 2023 parliamentary election that brought Tusk’s coalition to power recording a higher figure of 74.38%

The Ipsos exit poll, which was today conducted at almost 1,000 randomly selected polling stations, has in previous elections closely matched the final count. But it does have a margin of error.

In the first round of the current election two weeks ago, Ipsos’s exit poll very accurately predicted the final results for both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. As the two most popular among the 13 candidates – but with neither winning over 50% of the vote – they proceeded to today’s second-round run-off.

All eyes will now be on the official count, with results rolling in overnight. The head of the National Electoral Commission (PKW), Sylwester Marciniak, said on Friday that they hope to publish final, official results on Monday morning or early afternoon.

The results must also be confirmed by the Supreme Court’s chamber of extraordinary review and public affairs.

However, that process is shrouded in controversy because the chamber – which was created as part of the PiS party’s judicial reforms when it was in power – is regarded as illegitimate by Tusk’s ruling coalition.

An attempt to change the way that the presidential election results are validated by the Supreme Court was vetoed in March this year by the current president, Andrzej Duda, who is a PiS ally. His second and final term in office ends in August.

If either Trzaskowski or Nawrocki decides to challenge today’s result due to any alleged transgressions in vote counting or other aspects of the electoral process, such claims would be considered by the same, contested chamber of the court.

Whatever the final result, the fact that it is so close represents a remarkable performance for Nawrocki, a political novice who has never previously stood for public office. He currently serves as head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a state historical body.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, is a seasoned political operator who finished a close second to Duda in the 2020 presidential election and currently serves as mayor of Poland’s capital, Warsaw. He is also deputy leader of Tusk’s PO party.

Today’s vote comes at the end of a months-long campaign that has seen the interrelated issues of security and migration at the forefront, and has also seen both candidates – but in particular Nawrocki – hit by scandals and controversy.

The war in neighbouring Ukraine has seen both candidates pledge to continue efforts to bolster Poland’s defence capabilities through expansion and modernisation of the armed forces.

Nawrocki, however, has taken a much tougher line regarding Ukraine itself, including signing a pledge not to ratify its accession to NATO if he becomes president. Tusk, as well as Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, criticised that decision, saying that it echoed Russian demands.

Both candidates have also pledged to clamp down on immigration and on the support given to immigrants already in Poland, though again Nawrocki has taken tougher positions.

Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has pledged that, if he becomes president, he will seek to sign bills liberalising the abortion law, introducing same-sex civil partnerships and undoing PiS’s judicial reforms.

During the final stages of the campaign, Nawrocki was hit by a series of scandals. It came to light that he had lied about only having one apartment. Not only did he own a second, but various questions came to light over how he had come to possess it and how he treated the elderly, disabled man living there.

Subsequently, a leading news website, Onet, reported that Nawrocki had helped procure prostitutes for guests at a luxury hotel where he worked as a security guard. Nawrocki denied the claims – based on testimony by anonymous former colleagues – and pledged to sue Onet.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski faced questions after it emerged that hundreds of thousands of zloty had been spent on Facebook adverts supporting him and attacking Nawrocki.

The provenance of that money remains unclear, but there is a chance it came from abroad, which would be illegal under Polish election law. Trzaskowski has insisted that he and his staff had no involvement in or knowledge of the campaign.

Poland holds a knife-edge second round of the presidential election on Sunday as the country chooses between a centrist liberal and a right-wing nationalist.

Turnout holds the key to the contest between Rafal Trzaskowski of ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by nationalists Law and Justice (PiS).

Parliament holds most power in Poland but the president can veto legislation so the vote is being watched closely in neighbouring Ukraine, as well as in Russia, the U.S. and across the EU.

Voting began at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and is due to end at 9 p.m., with exit polls published soon afterwards. The electoral commission says it hopes final results will be announced on Monday morning or early afternoon.

Almost 29 million Poles are eligible to vote. Over 32,000 district electoral commissions were established in the country and 511 abroad.

Opinion polls show that the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error.

#Election silence

Poland observes strict election silence laws (otherwise known as an election blackout), which ban political agitation and canvassing, as well as the publication of poll results. The election silence period went into effect at midnight at the turn of Friday and Saturday, and will conclude at the moment the polling stations close.

The only data regarding the vote that can be expected to be released during the day by the National Electoral Commission (PKW), a permanent body tasked with overseeing the organization and validity of the electoral process, are the results regarding the turnout at noon and 5 p.m.

Exit poll results can therefore be expected at 9 p.m., unless PKW extends the election silence period.

This is a rare occurrence, however, usually connected to the electoral process being in some way hampered, for example, in cases when a polling station had to be closed due to unforeseen circumstances, preventing the voters from casting their ballots.

#Results

PKW will subsequently release official partial results as the individual polling stations submit their tallies, with the final outcome of the vote most likely to be expected sometime on Monday.

Poland holds a knife-edge second round of the presidential election on Sunday as the country chooses between a centrist liberal and a right-wing nationalist.

Turnout holds the key to the contest between Rafal Trzaskowski of ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by nationalists Law and Justice (PiS).

Parliament holds most power in Poland but the president can veto legislation so the vote is being watched closely in neighbouring Ukraine, as well as in Russia, the U.S. and across the EU.

Voting began at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and is due to end at 9 p.m., with exit polls published soon afterwards. The electoral commission says it hopes final results will be announced on Monday morning or early afternoon.

Almost 29 million Poles are eligible to vote. Over 32,000 district electoral commissions were established in the country and 511 abroad.

Opinion polls show that the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error.

#Election silence

Poland observes strict election silence laws (otherwise known as an election blackout), which ban political agitation and canvassing, as well as the publication of poll results. The election silence period went into effect at midnight at the turn of Friday and Saturday, and will conclude at the moment the polling stations close.

The only data regarding the vote that can be expected to be released during the day by the National Electoral Commission (PKW), a permanent body tasked with overseeing the organization and validity of the electoral process, are the results regarding the turnout at noon and 5 p.m.

Exit poll results can therefore be expected at 9 p.m., unless PKW extends the election silence period.

This is a rare occurrence, however, usually connected to the electoral process being in some way hampered, for example, in cases when a polling station had to be closed due to unforeseen circumstances, preventing the voters from casting their ballots.

#Results

PKW will subsequently release official partial results as the individual polling stations submit their tallies, with the final outcome of the vote most likely to be expected sometime on Monday.

Poland holds a knife-edge second round of the presidential election on Sunday as the country chooses between a centrist liberal and a right-wing nationalist.

Turnout holds the key to the contest between Rafal Trzaskowski of ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by nationalists Law and Justice (PiS).

Parliament holds most power in Poland but the president can veto legislation so the vote is being watched closely in neighbouring Ukraine, as well as in Russia, the U.S. and across the EU.

Voting began at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and is due to end at 9 p.m., with exit polls published soon afterwards. The electoral commission says it hopes final results will be announced on Monday morning or early afternoon.

Almost 29 million Poles are eligible to vote. Over 32,000 district electoral commissions were established in the country and 511 abroad.

Opinion polls show that the difference between the candidates is within the margin of error.

#Election silence

Poland observes strict election silence laws (otherwise known as an election blackout), which ban political agitation and canvassing, as well as the publication of poll results. The election silence period went into effect at midnight at the turn of Friday and Saturday, and will conclude at the moment the polling stations close.

The only data regarding the vote that can be expected to be released during the day by the National Electoral Commission (PKW), a permanent body tasked with overseeing the organization and validity of the electoral process, are the results regarding the turnout at noon and 5 p.m.

Exit poll results can therefore be expected at 9 p.m., unless PKW extends the election silence period.

This is a rare occurrence, however, usually connected to the electoral process being in some way hampered, for example, in cases when a polling station had to be closed due to unforeseen circumstances, preventing the voters from casting their ballots.

#Results

PKW will subsequently release official partial results as the individual polling stations submit their tallies, with the final outcome of the vote most likely to be expected sometime on Monday.

Three doctors have been charged over the death of a pregnant woman, named only as Dorota, while she was in hospital under their care. Prosecutors found that “there was a failure to undertake appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, which led to the patient’s death”.

Dorota’s death in 2023 prompted mass protests against Poland’s near-total abortion ban, which activists blamed for the doctors’ decision not to terminate the pregnancy despite it threatening the woman’s life. It also led the then government to take action to ensure pregnant women receive appropriate medical care.

Dorota, who was aged 33, was admitted to John Paul II Hospital in the city of Nowy Targ in May 2023 while five months pregnant after her waters had broken prematurely. She died a few days later as a result of septic shock.

According to the findings of prosecutors, a few hours before her death, an ultrasound scan showed that the foetus had already died, reports the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

The state commissioner for patients’ rights concluded that Dorota’s rights had been violated both in terms of not receiving appropriate medical care and not being provided with correct information about her health condition.

On Friday, prosecutors announced that they had filed charges against three gynaecology and obstetrics doctors involved in Dorota’s care, one of whom was at the time head of the hospital department.

All were charged with exposing the patient to immediate danger of loss of life and one was additionally charged with unintentionally causing her death. Both of those crimes are punishable by up to five years in prison.

A lawyer representing Dorota’s family, Jolanta Budzowska, welcomed the charges but added that the “liability of medical personnel is only one dimension of this tragedy”.

“The source of medical errors is often unclear law, which requires change,” said Budzowska. “The arbitrary interpretation of the applicable regulations creates a risk for both doctors and patients.”

Budzowska is also representing the family of another woman, Izabela, whose death in hospital in 2021 while pregnant also prompted mass protests against the abortion law.

“After Izabela’s death, recommendations were issued by the health minister,” noted the lawyer. “But these did not prevent Dorota’s death, and subsequent positions and standards issued by medical associations do not solve the problem of the lack of safety for women.”

Earlier this year, a medical court suspended three doctors from practising medicine after finding negligence in their treatment of Izabela, including their decision not to terminate her pregnancy despite signs of the development of sepsis.

Supporters of Poland’s strict abortion law argue that it is not to blame for such incidents because it stillincreas allows pregnancies to be terminated if they threaten the mother’s life or health. They say the tragedies are the result of medical malpractice.

However, protests against the law, which was toughened in 2021 after a constitutional court ruling, argue that it has created an atmosphere in which doctors are fearful of legal consequences for performing abortions.

In 2021, only 107 legal abortions were carried out in Poland (and most of them before the new law went into force in late January) compared to over 1,000 in 2020, when the previous law was in place. Since then, the number of terminations has increased, though remains well below the previous level.

The current government, which came to power in December 2023, has pledged to liberalise the abortion law. However, it has so far failed to do so, as it has been unable to find agreement between more conservative and liberal elements of the ruling camp on what form the new law should take.

Three doctors have been charged over the death of a pregnant woman, named only as Dorota, while she was in hospital under their care. Prosecutors found that “there was a failure to undertake appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, which led to the patient’s death”.

Dorota’s death in 2023 prompted mass protests against Poland’s near-total abortion ban, which activists blamed for the doctors’ decision not to terminate the pregnancy despite it threatening the woman’s life. It also led the then government to take action to ensure pregnant women receive appropriate medical care.

Dorota, who was aged 33, was admitted to John Paul II Hospital in the city of Nowy Targ in May 2023 while five months pregnant after her waters had broken prematurely. She died a few days later as a result of septic shock.

According to the findings of prosecutors, a few hours before her death, an ultrasound scan showed that the foetus had already died, reports the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

The state commissioner for patients’ rights concluded that Dorota’s rights had been violated both in terms of not receiving appropriate medical care and not being provided with correct information about her health condition.

On Friday, prosecutors announced that they had filed charges against three gynaecology and obstetrics doctors involved in Dorota’s care, one of whom was at the time head of the hospital department.

All were charged with exposing the patient to immediate danger of loss of life and one was additionally charged with unintentionally causing her death. Both of those crimes are punishable by up to five years in prison.

A lawyer representing Dorota’s family, Jolanta Budzowska, welcomed the charges but added that the “liability of medical personnel is only one dimension of this tragedy”.

“The source of medical errors is often unclear law, which requires change,” said Budzowska. “The arbitrary interpretation of the applicable regulations creates a risk for both doctors and patients.”

Budzowska is also representing the family of another woman, Izabela, whose death in hospital in 2021 while pregnant also prompted mass protests against the abortion law.

“After Izabela’s death, recommendations were issued by the health minister,” noted the lawyer. “But these did not prevent Dorota’s death, and subsequent positions and standards issued by medical associations do not solve the problem of the lack of safety for women.”

Earlier this year, a medical court suspended three doctors from practising medicine after finding negligence in their treatment of Izabela, including their decision not to terminate her pregnancy despite signs of the development of sepsis.

Supporters of Poland’s strict abortion law argue that it is not to blame for such incidents because it stillincreas allows pregnancies to be terminated if they threaten the mother’s life or health. They say the tragedies are the result of medical malpractice.

However, protests against the law, which was toughened in 2021 after a constitutional court ruling, argue that it has created an atmosphere in which doctors are fearful of legal consequences for performing abortions.

In 2021, only 107 legal abortions were carried out in Poland (and most of them before the new law went into force in late January) compared to over 1,000 in 2020, when the previous law was in place. Since then, the number of terminations has increased, though remains well below the previous level.

The current government, which came to power in December 2023, has pledged to liberalise the abortion law. However, it has so far failed to do so, as it has been unable to find agreement between more conservative and liberal elements of the ruling camp on what form the new law should take.

Three doctors have been charged over the death of a pregnant woman, named only as Dorota, while she was in hospital under their care. Prosecutors found that “there was a failure to undertake appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, which led to the patient’s death”.

Dorota’s death in 2023 prompted mass protests against Poland’s near-total abortion ban, which activists blamed for the doctors’ decision not to terminate the pregnancy despite it threatening the woman’s life. It also led the then government to take action to ensure pregnant women receive appropriate medical care.

Dorota, who was aged 33, was admitted to John Paul II Hospital in the city of Nowy Targ in May 2023 while five months pregnant after her waters had broken prematurely. She died a few days later as a result of septic shock.

According to the findings of prosecutors, a few hours before her death, an ultrasound scan showed that the foetus had already died, reports the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

The state commissioner for patients’ rights concluded that Dorota’s rights had been violated both in terms of not receiving appropriate medical care and not being provided with correct information about her health condition.

On Friday, prosecutors announced that they had filed charges against three gynaecology and obstetrics doctors involved in Dorota’s care, one of whom was at the time head of the hospital department.

All were charged with exposing the patient to immediate danger of loss of life and one was additionally charged with unintentionally causing her death. Both of those crimes are punishable by up to five years in prison.

A lawyer representing Dorota’s family, Jolanta Budzowska, welcomed the charges but added that the “liability of medical personnel is only one dimension of this tragedy”.

“The source of medical errors is often unclear law, which requires change,” said Budzowska. “The arbitrary interpretation of the applicable regulations creates a risk for both doctors and patients.”

Budzowska is also representing the family of another woman, Izabela, whose death in hospital in 2021 while pregnant also prompted mass protests against the abortion law.

“After Izabela’s death, recommendations were issued by the health minister,” noted the lawyer. “But these did not prevent Dorota’s death, and subsequent positions and standards issued by medical associations do not solve the problem of the lack of safety for women.”

Earlier this year, a medical court suspended three doctors from practising medicine after finding negligence in their treatment of Izabela, including their decision not to terminate her pregnancy despite signs of the development of sepsis.

Supporters of Poland’s strict abortion law argue that it is not to blame for such incidents because it stillincreas allows pregnancies to be terminated if they threaten the mother’s life or health. They say the tragedies are the result of medical malpractice.

However, protests against the law, which was toughened in 2021 after a constitutional court ruling, argue that it has created an atmosphere in which doctors are fearful of legal consequences for performing abortions.

In 2021, only 107 legal abortions were carried out in Poland (and most of them before the new law went into force in late January) compared to over 1,000 in 2020, when the previous law was in place. Since then, the number of terminations has increased, though remains well below the previous level.

The current government, which came to power in December 2023, has pledged to liberalise the abortion law. However, it has so far failed to do so, as it has been unable to find agreement between more conservative and liberal elements of the ruling camp on what form the new law should take.